Poker Video: Razz by ceegee (High Stakes)

Time Link to 00:08:11

There are too many combinations of better 7-hands as your hand is not close to a perfect 7-draw. While Compton is playing over-aggro, there is too much action up to this point for this jam to be correct. Just call here and see how 5th hits.

Time Link to 00:18:15

The 1/2 has a decent structure, but you are still 4-handed, so there is not enough dead money to defend here. In addition a 4 folded (a card you need) and a 5 raised, a card you also need. Just fold here.

Time Link to 00:17:37

Isn't there a good chance that he has an 8 in the hole here? Is that part of why you call on 4th street? Also, what about checking on 5th street to try to induce him to barrel, representing that you might have paired up and be looking to check/fold? Or is it too likely he takes a free card if he has 8w-78Q? How likely is he to have 9w-78Q here?

Isn't there a good chance that he has an 8 in the hole here? Is that part of why you call on 4th street? Also, what about checking on 5th street to try to induce him to barrel, representing that you might have paired up and be looking to check/fold? Or is it too likely he takes a free card if he has 8w-78Q? How likely is he to have 9w-78Q here?

I think in this structure he is flatting a ton of hands and leading good 4ths so his range is definitely a brick in the hole and some 8s and 9s which i don't think he balances well by flatting good hands here too, so when he leads he is just using his board a ton, then on 5th he is folding a lot drawing to a worse hand.

There are too many combinations of better 7-hands as your hand is not close to a perfect 7-draw. While Compton is playing over-aggro, there is too much action up to this point for this jam to be correct. Just call here and see how 5th hits.

There are a decent amount of combination of 7s i agree, however with the read I had on the player that he was jamming a ton of hands incorrectly I don't mind building a pot with what is likely to be the best hand, also even if he does have a strong 7 I'm still 50/50 or 55/45 if he has an 8 which I've seen him show up with more than once in jamming 4ths and 5ths. I can see keeping the pot smaller to make his bad peels worse on later streets, or maybe check raising on 5th sometimes? I think its fine to 3 bet here to gamble once in awhile with a bad player I won't always take this line, but I don't think its bad.

The 1/2 has a decent structure, but you are still 4-handed, so there is not enough dead money to defend here. In addition a 4 folded (a card you need) and a 5 raised, a card you also need. Just fold here.

we have decent equity here.
[table]ProPokerTools Razz Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
[/table]
[table=head]Hand |Pot equity |Wins |Ties
k23|43.03% |258,053|269
* * 5|56.97% |341,678|269
[/table]

Getting better than 2-1 and the fact that this guy will always continue to barrel regardless of what we hit, we find ourselves in a lot of profitable positions post 4th as well, ontop of the fact that he tilts if we make a hand is just too many good things going for this spot. Against a good player I could probably fold this, but I think his range is too wide to fold this, it's profitable enough.

btw I make a raise in the biggest pot of this video that was not actually an equity favorite 4 ways, I was like a 1% favorite or something, so my 3 bet raise wasn't great, but my lead out was still good with the 6T or whatever 4 card ten i had in that hand.

we have decent equity here.
[table]ProPokerTools Razz Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
[/table]
[table=head]Hand |Pot equity |Wins |Ties
k23|43.03% |258,053|269
* * 5|56.97% |341,678|269
[/table]

Getting better than 2-1 and the fact that this guy will always continue to barrel regardless of what we hit, we find ourselves in a lot of profitable positions post 4th as well, ontop of the fact that he tilts if we make a hand is just too many good things going for this spot. Against a good player I could probably fold this, but I think his range is too wide to fold this, it's profitable enough.

This is all-in equity. We are not all-in on 3rd street.

0.65SB on 3rd + SB on 4th + BB on 5th, 6th, 7th (3BBs total) = 3.65BBs

To see the river:

Bring in + 4xAntes + 1SB raise by opponent on 3rd - = 2SBs or 1BBs

Plus our opponents SB bet on 4th and 1BB on 5th, 6th, 7th = 3.5BBs
Total 4.5BBs

It will cost 3.65BBs to win 4.5BBs on average:
3.65/8.15 = 44% equity needed.

BTW PPT has a DeucesCracked link w/DC forum code:
ProPokerTools Razz Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
dead cards: 4Q
23K 42.73% (256,208 wins, 290 ties)
**5 57.27% (343,502 wins, 290 ties)

When you include the dead cards, you can see that this is just less than what is needed.

It's better put like this, which includes playability, you are 4:1 to out-flop your opponent. Meaning you catch well, and he catches a brick. So you need 4:1 to defend here, we are getting ~3:1, where he gets to play perfectly against us and we need 2 streets to get ahead.

It's a fold on 3rd.

The 1/2 has a decent structure, but you are still 4-handed, so there is not enough dead money to defend here. In addition a 4 folded (a card you need) and a 5 raised, a card you also need. Just fold here.

Yeah unfortunately although his range is definitely going to be wide when he's the last low card to act before your K, his actual range, which is **5, beats your hand

ProPokerTools Razz Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
23K 43.11% (258,489 wins, 305 ties)
**5 56.89% (341,206 wins, 305 ties)

And if he has one good card you're in bad shape shape:
ProPokerTools Razz Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
23K 38.53% (230,987 wins, 335 ties)
*(7-5) 61.47% (368,678 wins, 335 ties)


FWIW if I make it to 6th, I'm calling. You're getting 5:1 immediate odds, or 3:1 effective to call down. You lose quite often but once you've put this much in I think you need to suck it up and call. The river will be a very tough choice if you don't improve.

I agree it's probably -ev with raw equities and RIO, but add the fact that if I call with these types of hands he will always bet 4th no matter what h catches and 5th a lot of the time when I have a huge edge if I catch well. He was loose enough for me to want to play these hands because it would force big errors on his part later on in hands. He was the never fold make loose creative/bad plays.

Time Link to 00:02:59

I think this idea is interesting if I balance all my hands by 3 betting. If I start flatting my weak hands and 3 betting strong I will easily get read, so I think its important for balance sake to have some paint in the hole in my 3 betting range, or I can flat my whole range which I think could be the better line.

Time Link to 00:01:45

The pot is $580, your getting 5.8:1. Problem is vs two opponents, both of which have confirmed 3 card draws only around 10 in 1 times will you catch perfect on 4th street while they both catch bad, since the pot is large they will be making a big mistake if they don't peel on 4th - mathematically this is a clear fold in my eyes. It doesnt matter than this is a high stakes game, you might be overvaluing the psychology of the game dynamic too much when in reality its just a reverse implied odds situation. I guess someone could argue that you have the implied odds needed to improve, but I think thats a long term losing argument because your opponents will also have the implied odds needed to peel on 4th if they catch bad - best to just give up on the hand on 3rd once your fingers were caught in the cookie jar IMO.

With that said, if the ante was HUGE and I was getting around 9:1, I'm calling.

For what its worth I know the dynamic between these players, I agree every one of them is very aggressive (I've played with Compton Masta a ton), but I still feel 3rd street should go complete-fold; I hate our hand in a 3-way pot regardless of the fact that we are getting better than 3.3:1 on our money, its just too hard to play on the later streets which will put us in too many tough situations on future streets too often.

+1 to TT's post

+1 to TT's post

I just re-read my post, I must have been really sleepy when I wrote that, its a jumbled mess. sorry about that!

Joe and Rusty, I don't think you guys are accounting for the times I get free cards, or the added equity of putting myself in a very profitable situation as this guy will not fold since I'm playing a K which he probably sees as horrible so will always bet 4th and a lot of 5ths in which I can raise with a very nice edge if I catch well. If I don't I'm not forced to continue and I can easily fold for cheap. The times I continue in the hand will be more profitable than you guys think.

Joe and Rusty, I don't think you guys are accounting for the times I get free cards, or the added equity of putting myself in a very profitable situation as this guy will not fold since I'm playing a K which he probably sees as horrible so will always bet 4th and a lot of 5ths in which I can raise with a very nice edge if I catch well. If I don't I'm not forced to continue and I can easily fold for cheap. The times I continue in the hand will be more profitable than you guys think.

I concede that depending who you speak to you will either get an opinion that matches ceegee's or Joe/Rusty's. Personally I generally side with Joe on this one, I want to get just under 3.8ish:1 with implied odds, but I admit that doesn't mean my opinion is correct - there is only one way to determine the best EV line - pull out Excel and have a go at it via combinatorics. Anyone care to jump in with the mathematical solution showing -

a - how many times hero will improve while villain also improves?
b - how often will hero catch bad while villain also catches bad?
c - how often will hero improve while villain does not improve?
c.1 - how many combinations of hands that villain has which which might peel 4th street (his peel would be incorrect because of the size of the pot, but lets account for this possibility anyway)
c.2 - how many combinations of hands that villain has within his range that cannot peel if hero catches good?

Ive done this in the past for similar hands, therefore I am too lazy to do it myself, I hope someone else volunteers or else I'm gonna have to guilt ceegee into stepping up to the plate to do it himself ;-p

side note - Knowing Compton, you will rarely get a free card on 4th. He will also usually rep a hand stronger than he has on 4th if he improves to a card lower than yours

I concede that depending who you speak to you will either get an opinion that matches ceegee's or Joe/Rusty's. Personally I generally side with Joe on this one, I want to get just under 3.8ish:1 with implied odds, but I admit that doesn't mean my opinion is correct - there is only one way to determine the best EV line - pull out Excel and have a go at it via combinatorics. Anyone care to jump in with the mathematical solution showing -

a - how many times hero will improve while villain also improves?
b - how often will hero catch bad while villain also catches bad?
c - how often will hero improve while villain does not improve?
c.1 - how many combinations of hands that villain has which which might peel 4th street (his peel would be incorrect because of the size of the pot, but lets account for this possibility anyway)
c.2 - how many combinations of hands that villain has within his range that cannot peel if hero catches good?

Ive done this in the past for similar hands, therefore I am too lazy to do it myself, I hope someone else volunteers or else I'm gonna have to guilt ceegee into stepping up to the plate to do it himself ;-p

side note - Knowing Compton, you will rarely get a free card on 4th. He will also usually rep a hand stronger than he has on 4th if he improves to a card lower than yours

I am the worst person ever to run real EV calculations lol

Time Link to 00:22:11

Equity edge is very slim.

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(8-8-5)J 24.9844%
(8-8-6)K 24.0616%
(8-8-5)K 24.6018%
673T 26.3522%