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Poker Video: Limit Hold'Em by Oink (Mid Stakes)

Just watched the vid

Its been a while since I recorded it and I'd like to think that I have gotten a lot better in the mean time.

A few spots I think I should have played differently

- 9.50 in: I call As7h in BB vs CO open from unknown. Flop is Kh9h8c and I fold. Bad fold! Peel flop with all the backdoors and fold any turn that doesnt improve me. If improved on the turn make a decision on the river. c/r an A turn. I am not taking a turned bottom pair to SD


- 16.00 in: I open K9o OTB and unknown BB 3-balls. Flop is AAQ and I fold IP. I am not sure but I think there is some merit to peeling here. I have tons of outs vs lower pp's and position.


- 17.27 in: I defend with K6o vs TAG in the CO and c/r 743 rainbow flop. He raises me on a rainbow Q which is a good bluff card. I just call which is fine but I think 3-betting has some merit here altho I would prefer a strong draw like a fd or an OESD


- 19.30 in: I 3-bet K6s in BB vs SB. bet twice on 77TK with a fd on the turn. Unknown insta donks A river and I fold. 98, J9 is just too many combos to fold here and sometimes you see Tx as well. Bad fold! Dunno what the fuck I am talking about with all the timing tells.


- 20.20 in: I 3-bet Q9o in BB vs SB. Get c/r on T83fd flop. Peel a 6 turn when I pick up a 1-card fd and fold a 6 river. So board is 8T366 with a 3 flush and pot is 8 BB. This would be a good spot to value/bluff raise. I have a hand almost good enough to call with so the price on my bluff raise is pretty good as its only 1 more bet compared to calling and as I do fold QJ. Calling is also an option tho. I dont like that fold


- 31.57 in: I have Q5o in SB vs a 41/19 bad player in the BB and call it close and fold while hating. Its not close. We have two cards and a bad player. Q2o is good enough in that spot. Just dont open raise it all. Its fine to limp call to keep the pot small since we have so little FE

- 9.50 in: I call As7h in BB vs CO open from unknown. Flop is Kh9h8c and I fold. Bad fold! Peel flop with all the backdoors and fold any turn that doesnt improve me. If improved on the turn make a decision on the river. c/r an A turn. I am not taking a turned bottom pair to SD

I don't quite understand this. Doesn't mean that I think you're wrong, just that I don't understand.

There aren't enough outs and while equity against the whole range might be enough, a lot of it comes from the Ace and if you're folding a lot of turns, so you don't get to use its equity all the time.

So is it the case that you account some equity for the cases where you turn something that you can call or check-raise, say, A, T, 7, 6, perhaps 5/J too and by calling second time you get to the showdown for some portion of the time and win some showdowns with Ace high when the villain checks behind some lower Ace high or perhaps even Queen high? And the same thing with a turned bottom pair. Meaning that you can't call a third bet with it but still expect to win some of the time when the villain checks behind with a worse hand, right?

- 16.00 in: I open K9o OTB and unknown BB 3-balls. Flop is AAQ and I fold IP. I am not sure but I think there is some merit to peeling here. I have tons of outs vs lower pp's and position.

Heh, quite surprising to me that the pure equity against {44+,A7s+,KTs+,QJs,A9o+,KJo+} range is 17%. I guess it mostly comes from the fact that Ace in the villain's hand is just so much more unlikely given that there are two on the board. And I guess that in these games 22-33 3-bet button raise too, right?

I don't quite understand this. Doesn't mean that I think you're wrong, just that I don't understand.

There aren't enough outs and while equity against the whole range might be enough, a lot of it comes from the Ace and if you're folding a lot of turns, so you don't get to use its equity all the time.

So is it the case that you account some equity for the cases where you turn something that you can call or check-raise, say, A, T, 7, 6, perhaps 5/J too and by calling second time you get to the showdown for some portion of the time and win some showdowns with Ace high when the villain checks behind some lower Ace high or perhaps even Queen high? And the same thing with a turned bottom pair. Meaning that you can't call a third bet with it but still expect to win some of the time when the villain checks behind with a worse hand, right?

A lot of the eq comes from our A high being best and you are right we are gonna have a hard time realizing that eq.

I am not saying I want to c/c*3.

My plan is

peel flop
peel turn that gives us a draw or a bottom pair - c/r an A
c/f river if he 3-barrels and we dont improve.

However, we will get so many free rivers or we will get free SD's when we peel turn that its all good. Close spot tho and I dont hate folding, I shouldnt have said "bad fold!"

Heh, quite surprising to me that the pure equity against {44+,A7s+,KTs+,QJs,A9o+,KJo+} range is 17%. I guess it mostly comes from the fact that Ace in the villain's hand is just so much more unlikely given that there are two on the board. And I guess that in these games 22-33 3-bet button raise too, right?

I dont think he has 22-33 a lot. Actually that range is a bit wide on some spots and a bit narrow on others. I expect to see suited connectors once in a while but its also likely that he isnt 3-betting as many Ax.

17% suprises me. I thought it was more. With only 17% peeling would be fine if we had a good read on his turn tendencies when we peel such a flop. If we knew he would give up on the turn with lower pairs and air we could peel flop and play accordingly on the turn.

- 9.50 in: I call As7h in BB vs CO open from unknown. Flop is Kh9h8c and I fold. Bad fold! Peel flop with all the backdoors and fold any turn that doesnt improve me. If improved on the turn make a decision on the river. c/r an A turn. I am not taking a turned bottom pair to SD

What turn cards would you consider enough of an improvement to get you to the river? You mention the backdoors so: any J? Qh?

When I was watching I agreed with the flop fold and wonder if the math supports peeling.

And thanks for making the videos Oink - I get a lot out of them and hope you'll continue to make them.

I will consider any

- heart
- T, 6, 5
- K, 9, 8
- 7 and obv an A

cards that improve me. A J will give us a gutter but I do believe thats a bad card.

K's, 9's and 8's are good as well as it improves our eq vs better Ax and pp's less than 77.

And thanks for making the videos Oink - I get a lot out of them and hope you'll continue to make them.

Thanks! Getting paid to do them is obv great but getting all the kind words is even better for an attention whore like me.

Thanks! Getting paid to do them is obv great but getting all the kind words is even better for an attention whore like me.

Wait what - you get paid to produce this crap...

J/K, love the vids Oink.

great video

Hi, nice video oink! I have one comment:

in minute 9:30, you open 22 in CO and fish calls in BB and donks a KdQh8h flop, you call flop and turn.

Ok, he may have a draw or total crap, but total crap has 6 outs against you, and the worst draw has at least 10 outs against you. And you have only 2 outs if he is donking any pair. I highly highly doubt you have a profitable calldown, even if sometimes you are ahead in the flop.

On the K98 board, I think you can justify a peel with Ah7x but I wouldn't peel with Ax7h. This is a really great video BTW.

Rob

in minute 9:30, you open 22 in CO and fish calls in BB and donks a KdQh8h flop, you call flop and turn.

Ok, he may have a draw or total crap, but total crap has 6 outs against you, and the worst draw has at least 10 outs against you. And you have only 2 outs if he is donking any pair. I highly highly doubt you have a profitable calldown, even if sometimes you are ahead in the flop.

So the board was KdQh8h and my hand was 2d2h. The player who donks had donked once or twice before that.

I disagree about folding here. The pot is offering 5.8:1 and he has a lot of draws/crap in his range.

Also I have more than 2 outs. My backdoor flush draw is worth 1.5 outs when he doesnt have a heart which he wont have with around 50% probability assuming his range is randomly constructed with suits. (Since he donks it makes it more likely he has a heart draw tho so that number is prolly higher than 50%)

Also, I am not comitted to a SD. I can fold and 9, T, J, A. If the board pairs I can fold the river if it double pairs. I have plenty of options to get away from this hand and will only call down if my eq keeps looking good.

I actually think it would be a somewhat bad fold as flop donks often represents draws which makes it so easy to decide on when to call down. I expect to see JT a lot more often than K8

oh yeah btw what exactly is a lagtag?

someone with like 33/24 stats or something?

Thats open for interpretation I suppose

When I talk about its like

TAG: 27/20 or 25/18¨

LAGTAG: 30/20 or 34/23

LAG: 38/28 or 45/30

At around 06:30 you open with K 9 on the hijack, get called by a loosepassive on SB and a LAGTAGish BB. Flop comes T 4 7 . Both check, you bet and say that you would fold to a check-raise? Huh?.

I'm guessing that the comment was just a verbal equivalent of a miss-click. I would never fold here getting 9:1 even against loose/passive.

Uhm yeah. I stumbled upon that too. Dunno why I didnt comment in my first comment.

Dunno if I may have meant fold to a c/r by SB. I often misspeak in those vids.

I would fold to a c/r by the loose passive but peel if LAGTAG c/r.

If you are interested, I made calculations about the 22 hand were you get donked in a drawy board, with the strategy of folding if 9, T, J, A comes, or if the board double pairs by the river. The summary of the results are:

34% you are folding the turn and losing 1SB
24% you are folding the river and losing 3SB
35% you are going unimproved to the showdown and winning 9,5SB or losing 5SB
7% you are going to the showdown with a set or four-of-a-kind, and winning 11,5SB or losing 7SB

-I am supposing that when you go to the showdown with a set or four-of-a-kind you are winning something like 80% of the time (if I choose 90% things doesn't change much at all)
-I am supposing that the backdoor flush has a EV of zero (to simplify calculations).
-I am supposing the opponent always 3barrel

Result: the 35% of the time that you are going unimproved to the showdown, you have to win 45% of the time or more, if you want this strategy to be +EV.

wow thanks.

So if I understand you correctly he should be donking some draw that doesnt connect with the turn/river bricks with 45% probability, right?

I have no idea how often the flop donk is actully a draw but that doesnt sound completely unreasonable to me. But dunno really.

btw there is also the probability of him checking turn or river letting me get cheaper to SD. This improves the odds and decreases the 45% figure.

Hmmm yes, if at least 45% of the time he have one of these hands:
1) any straight draw (turn and river don't matter because we are folding if he pairs)
2) any flush draw without a pair, that turn and river cards don't give him a pair or a flush
3) total crap, that turn and river cards don't pair him

Then it's +EV. Of course he doesn't always 3barrel so it may be a little better. I really have no idea about his donking distribution, so I don't know if it's good or bad lol.

Yeah I have no idea either on the distribution we should expect.

Never the less its great to have a number to go by