Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by NoahSD (Mid Stakes)

PREMIER!

Great vid as always. One question, how do I get the pop up of the previous HH to appear on my HEM hud? It looks a really useful tool.

Great vid as always. One question, how do I get the pop up of the previous HH to appear on my HEM hud? It looks a really useful tool.

On the thing that HM puts up that lists the winner and pot size of recent hands (the thing that I have to the right of the one seat), click the player's name to see the hand history of the pot that they won, and click the pot size to see the board and hole cards of any hand that went to showdown.

Time Link to 00:03:25

Not sure I was clear here. What I was saying is that how draw-heavy a board is isn't very highly correlated with how often your c-bet gets called.

For example, if a nit calls your raise OOP 100 BBs deep (with a presumed range of mostly small/mid PPs, and a few of the higher suited connectors and some % of suited aces), he's calling or raising a c-bet on a TT2r board way more often (all PPs and all Tx, sometimes A-high) than a 89Tddd (Axdd, KQdd, KJdd, 89s-QJs, 77+).

Time Link to 00:21:46

Hey Noah

I was surprised to see you stack off here like it's not close. If this were me I'd be calling this raise everytime because I don't really expect people to be stacking off here with naked FDs or 9T 200BBs deep in the games I play (maybe the key here). I did some mat (hope it's correct):

Wide felting range
Against something like the range you described {4x 9Ts; 6x sets; 7x Axcc; 10x rando clubs 97cc T7cc T9cc QTcc KTcc KQcc 54cc 56cc 76cc 75cc} we have 47% equity.

EV(felt) = Eq.finalpot - amount invested =(0.47.1600) - 745 = 7

Tighter felting range
Against a range that doesn't include OESDs and 54cc/56cc/76cc/75cc our equity drops to 39% and we are reliant on him c/r-folding a significant portion of the time to make the flop 3B +EV.

EV(felt) = (0.39.1600) - 745 = -121
EV(fold) = 215
EV = 215x + (1-x)(-121)
x = 121/121+215 = 36% FE

You get where I'm coming from?..

g_marshy,

You're right that I shouldn'tve made it sound like it was an obv 3-bet/call. I need to remember to say that I'm not sure when I'm not sure. This is def a spot where I wasn't sure at the table.

It's cool that you did some math. Your math looks good, and it looks like you understand the situation, but you sort of cheated by first giving him a really loose range but ignoring fold equity and then giving him a really tight range and showing that we'd need really high fold equity if his range were that tight.

The reality is a combination of the two situations. Just messing around a bit with poker stove, my guess at my equity when I get it in is something like 44%, which means I lose about $36 when I shove and he calls. When he folds, I ship $215, like you said, so the break-even point is 36/(215+36) = 14.3%.

The break-even point's not what's important, though, since calling is clearly profitable, so we need to do better than break-even. Messing around a bit with weightings for various bluffs with gutshots and total air, I think reasonable estimate of how often he's folding is about 29%. This number may sound high, but keep in mind that his raise/calling range is like 20-25 hands, so I'm just giving him like 6 or 7 bluff combos out of the roughly 120 combos he gets to this flop with that are effectively air.

So that makes 3-betting worth about $46.

Calculating the equity of calling is a huge PITA. If you wanna attempt it and post it here, be my guest. I don't think he'd be bluffing a blank turn often enough to call a turn bet.. maybe like 40% of the time he has a FD/SD and like 10% of the time he has air. He prob bluffs club turns with decent frequency when he gets to them with air or 9T... maybe like 60% with air and like 85% with 9T. And of course you have to consider that when he has air he sometimes hits something (i.e. a gutshot or a set or a higher pair).

My guesses from various dumb approximations that I'm too embarassed to reproduce have come up with everything from $20 to $60, so I think it's close but I'm still thinking that raising is probably better until someone proves to me otherwise.

On the thing that HM puts up that lists the winner and pot size of recent hands (the thing that I have to the right of the one seat), click the player's name to see the hand history of the pot that they won, and click the pot size to see the board and hole cards of any hand that went to showdown.

Sorry to be a pain, but do you know where I have to click to get HM to put up the list of recent pots/winners? Really appreciate your help btw.

Sorry to be a pain, but do you know where I have to click to get HM to put up the list of recent pots/winners? Really appreciate your help btw.

Simple, all you need to do is go into 'Player Preferences' under 'HUD Options' in the HEM toolbar at the top. When you open Player Preferences there are 3 tabs that say 'Stats,' 'Appearance,' and 'Use For.' Click on the 'Appearance' tab, and where the checkboxes are, check the 'Show Table Avgs' box, and under the 'Number of Pots' dropdown to the right of that change it to 3(or however many you want from 1-3) and hit apply.

Thanks Noah for your response again. Really makes your vids extra helpful.

Simple, all you need to do is go into 'Player Preferences' under 'HUD Options' in the HEM toolbar at the top. When you open Player Preferences there are 3 tabs that say 'Stats,' 'Appearance,' and 'Use For.' Click on the 'Appearance' tab, and where the checkboxes are, check the 'Show Table Avgs' box, and under the 'Number of Pots' dropdown to the right of that change it to 3(or however many you want from 1-3) and hit apply.

Thanks a lot for that, I've been trying to figure that out for ages! God, i'm such a technonewb.

Time Link to 00:06:02

Misspoke at about 5:50. If you open to pot, BB gets the same pot odds no matter what the blind structure is... that's sorta the definition of pot. I meant to say that when you open to pot at ante tables, you actually lay yourself better odds on a blind steal.

For example, at 2/4 6-handed with a $1 ante, opening to pot is $20 for a chance to win $12. 2/4 with no ante, opening to pot is $14 for a chance to win $6.

Sorry about that.

I think you are way way too optimistic about your equity when you get in with KJ on the J82ss board, I dont know what you pokerstoved but 200BB deep a 2/4 reg calling pre from the big blind and then stacking off on this flop will just have a range that completely crushes you, I think there is no way your equity in that spot is even close to 44%.

Time Link to 00:27:36

what's the worse hand for you to call on this flop?

Hey Noah,
Sry i dont know how to use the link thing but - the 98cc hand where u flop trips ~ 40 min in...

You get raised w/ trips on 9942 fd on the turn by a nitty-ish TAG and your default is to flat turn fold river.

Are you really flatting turn to fold river if you don't boat up? I know htis sounds uber nitty and maybe it just doesn't happen enough to matter, but if you're just calling turn to fold river, it seems like a -EV call.

If your assumption is he never barrels river w/ worse then yeah ur line is fine, but i often find myself in this spot (or similar) and always feel gross about my decision. Vs most nitty tags i honestly want to b/f the turn - but if your read is b/c turn and c/f river, that seems somewhat exploitable. Do you assume nobody ever exploits this so its nota big deal?

Also you say "lets see what pot odds he gives me" wrt calling.

FWIW that makes no sense. IMO his betting range here should (in thoery) make your calling range static - so calling if he bets 1/2 pot but fodling if he bets full pot - I don't get it. If you can explain how a 1/2 pot makes you "more inclined" to call vs a full psb.

I can see worse hands potting for value worse than ours, and better hands betting 1/2 pot to induce hero calls all the same. This is a spot where his range is such where his river betsize doesn't influence my calling range as much as the fact that he decided to actually bet the river.

I hope that clears, apologies if not.

Time Link to 00:10:02

Hi NoahSD. I really like your videos, so continue with your good work. I want to ask how u determine that u need to be like 250bb deep to flat this 3-bet with J9s? I play at AP where all the tables are 200bb and I am really interested in this topic. Can u give same basic guidelines with what types of hands is good to call 3-bets in position and out of position and with what types of hands is good to 3-bet is position and out of position 200bb+.Just some basics.Thank you in advance.

DakaJ,
Vs. a set I have about 6% equity. Vs. draws, I have about 60% equity. I figure he has about 5 combos of sets (he prob c/cs a set like 15% of the time) and about 12 combos of draws, leaving me with 44.1% equity. That seems perfectly reasonable to me.

Stove doesn't do discounting very well, so any discounted stove range is going to seem a bit artificial, but here's an example range:

Board: Jd 8c 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.094% 44.09% 00.00% 7421 0.00 { KhJc }
Hand 1: 55.906% 55.91% 00.00% 9409 0.00 { 8d8h, 8d8s, 22, Ac9c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, KcTc, Tc9c, Td9d, 7c6c, 6c5c, 5c4c }

(sorry for the crappy copy + past from stove)

bibi,
My preflop range is fairly tight there, so I actually don't really have many close decisions. If 44 were in my range, I think I'd muck it given how often steve two barrels, but it's close. Obv I'm never folding 99+.

There's actually an argumnet for calling the AQ there. Maybe I'll run some math on it later.

Bryan,
Hey, man. You have to be using the flash player to do the link thing. Go to "My DC" at the top right.

But, yeah.. I definitely like my line there.

First of all, my call is good even if he's always betting any non-9 river. I'm getting like 6.5:1 to one with an additional 2.5 bets behind which I always win on my 3 outer (ignoring the very rare chop), so that fact almost makes it profitable right there. Throw in that I have 3 2's that are pretty much always either good or chopping, three 4's that are often chopping, one 9 (that gets discounted because he often has a 9) that's obv always good, and that he sometimes bets small enough on the river to let me call (for the small chance that he's bluffing or has a smaller 9) and that he sometimes has air and checks back, and I think it's definitely profitable.

As far as calling a smaller bet but not a bigger one. Let's say just to simplify things that regardless of his bet size, he'll have a range of A9/K9s/Q9s/J9/T9/89/79s/69s/59s/44 and two combos of bluffs. That means we're good 26% of the time, so we need a little less than 3:1 to call. So if he bets half pot, I'm calling. With his bet size, I'm folding.

Time Link to 00:37:07

Here's the spot bryan was talking about.

Hi NoahSD. I really like your videos, so continue with your good work. I want to ask how u determine that u need to be like 250bb deep to flat this 3-bet with J9s? I play at AP where all the tables are 200bb and I am really interested in this topic. Can u give same basic guidelines with what types of hands is good to call 3-bets in position and out of position and with what types of hands is good to 3-bet is position and out of position 200bb+.Just some basics.Thank you in advance.

Nothing incredibly fancy here. All I'm doing is taking numbers that I'm more sure of (like how deep I have to be vs. various ranges to call in and out of position for set value) and guessing based on those numbers. So I'm no where near sure of these numbers, but I figure it's better to have a standard than to not have a standard.

Most 2/4 regs are just never shoving 54cc 56cc or T9dd this deep in that spot, and they're also not always defending low suited aces. I really dont think you have more than 30-35% max in that spot when you get it in.

Most 2/4 regs are just never shoving 54cc 56cc or T9dd this deep in that spot, and they're also not always defending low suited aces. I really dont think you have more than 30-35% max in that spot when you get it in.

Yeah.. we just disagree about the range of an unknown 2/4 regular here. I def know regulars who wouldn't have many of those hands in his range. In the games that I regularly play in, people are overcalling pre pretty light and c/ring a lot of draws on the flop. From the little bit I've seen of 2/4 on FTP recently, it looks to be roughly the same, but I could def be wrong.

Time Link to 00:43:14

What do you do if you're in villain's shoes with AK? If it's 100BB stacks then sure obviously you're getting it in. But personally I find it a lot more difficult in his spot since he's OOP and 200BB deep and I would have no idea how to proceed in that situation.

Time Link to 00:39:32

Can we just fold here or is it an obligatory call? I feel like when we get check raised on the turn on a board like that it almost always means the nuts, or at the very least a hand that is better than TT. I'm not in the habit of folding overpairs to a single raise but in that situation I feel like we're beat a vast majority of the time. Plus even if we are a favourite, he almost always has a ton of outs anyways and will barrel a lot of rivers making it impossible to call even if we do have the best hand.

prowler,
I think villain played the AK fine.

In the TT hand, I'd fold if I weren't getting such awesome pot odds. With those awesome pot odds, I'm almost getting correct direct odds to call against two pair. Throw in the fact that he has pair + straight draw sometimes, and I like my call even though I definitely think we're beat a lot.

But, yeah, if he'd raised to a more reasonable amount I would've just folded.

DakaJ,
Vs. a set I have about 6% equity. Vs. draws, I have about 60% equity. I figure he has about 5 combos of sets (he prob c/cs a set like 15% of the time) and about 12 combos of draws, leaving me with 44.1% equity. That seems perfectly reasonable to me.

Stove doesn't do discounting very well, so any discounted stove range is going to seem a bit artificial, but here's an example range:

Board: Jd 8c 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.094% 44.09% 00.00% 7421 0.00 { KhJc }
Hand 1: 55.906% 55.91% 00.00% 9409 0.00 { 8d8h, 8d8s, 22, Ac9c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, KcTc, Tc9c, Td9d, 7c6c, 6c5c, 5c4c }

(sorry for the crappy copy + past from stove)

........

I haven't spent time in these games but I usually see even fairly aggro regs less interested in getting 200BB in on a draw. Is that an incorrect assumption in the full tilt deep games?

Time Link to 00:31:20

I think this is a spot where calling or minraising the short stackers shove are both better options than overshoving. When you flat this raise that is basically 27x, or roughly the size of a 4 bet, you will still get the button to fold everything you want him to fold. Your hand should will still look like a monster since flatting there with AA/KK should not be uncommon. If you overship here you kinda hang your stack out there in the wind and just select out for KK/AA that will call. If the button is observant and sees the short stack in the big blind, I think he can have those hands in his range.

I haven't spent time in these games but I usually see even fairly aggro regs less interested in getting 200BB in on a draw. Is that an incorrect assumption in the full tilt deep games?

I haven't played much in these games either. From what I've seen, people are pretty aggro, but it's def possible that I have a skewed sample or that I don't understand the nuance of how people play in these games yet. So I could def be wrong.

I think this is a spot where calling or minraising the short stackers shove are both better options than overshoving. When you flat this raise that is basically 27x, or roughly the size of a 4 bet, you will still get the button to fold everything you want him to fold. Your hand should will still look like a monster since flatting there with AA/KK should not be uncommon. If you overship here you kinda hang your stack out there in the wind and just select out for KK/AA that will call. If the button is observant and sees the short stack in the big blind, I think he can have those hands in his range.

Are you suggesting calling or minraising and then folding if BU ships? I don't think we can do that, though I think it'd be pretty close.

I think that if we call or if we ship, we get it in vs. roughly the same range. The difference is that if we just call, he actually has a profitable flat with a lot of hands--PPs and suited connectors--because of the fact that it's a dry side pot and therefore we're going to be checking it down almost every time. So that's a negative for calling.

The first thing I said isn't exactly true, either. His shipping range isn't going to be exactly the same as the range that he calls a shove with. He'll probably shove slightly lighter over a call than he would call a shove because he now can imagine some FE sometimes. I doubt he'd be shipping incredibly light like A8s or anything, and he probably almost always 3-bets preflop with AQ/AJ (and I think it's very unlikely that he both flats them the first time AND shoves them now), but calling is going to make him more likely to get it in with stuff like 88-TT.

So, I don't think there's a huge difference between the two because I'm talking about fairly rare events that don't change our equity too too much, but I think calling is worse than shoving for those reasons.

The only difference between minraise and shoving is whatever psychological difference it has for our opponent since we're never minraise/folding and he's never just flatting a minraise. It probably looks stronger, which is probably a good thing in this spot since we'd like to encourage folds from like 88-TT (and, again, I don't think we need to consider AQ much).

Noah do you purposely not have your hud showing your stats?
What's your vpip, PFR, Steal percentage, Fold to 3bet, 3bet etc?
Also why can't I find you on Poker Ratings?

Noah do you purposely not have your hud showing your stats?
What's your vpip, PFR, Steal percentage, Fold to 3bet, 3bet etc?
Also why can't I find you on Poker Ratings?

I just don't show my stats to reduce clutter a bit.

6-handed, I run about 26/21 with 40% ATS, 11% 3-bet, 55% fold to 3-bet.

Here's my PTR for FTP and Stars. My AP name isn't public.

Time Link to 00:22:44

Noah - with the KJo on 2c8cJx, this is the same guy who played the KQx board really passively, despite it being such an obvious spot to cbet. Do we really want to be getting ~185bbs in with TPTK against a guy who is playing quite passively?

Here, I much prefer flatting the raise and re-evaluating his action on the turn. If he barrels a non club turn, I think we can fold pretty easily. Obv, there are more combos of draws etc but just based on what we have seen from him, I don't like stacking off just yet, not without further reads.