Poker Video: MTT/SNG by DJ Sensei (Mid Stakes)

thanks guys

Time Link to 00:32:03

Time Link to 00:57:56

You talked about checking bottom set on 9 2 K.. aren't we a little afraid to give any larger pocket pairs another card? Since hands like 55, 44, 33, 66 probably will not bet the flop.. I think for the most part you owned Luke in dicussion.. but I think Luke was right about betting out with his 2 2 2. Now if you had 9 9 9 I think it would be a great spot to check because you allow someone to pick up a set on the turn ect.

You talked about checking bottom set on 9 2 K.. aren't we a little afraid to give any larger pocket pairs another card? Since hands like 55, 44, 33, 66 probably will not bet the flop.. I think for the most part you owned Luke in dicussion.. but I think Luke was right about betting out with his 2 2 2. Now if you had 9 9 9 I think it would be a great spot to check because you allow someone to pick up a set on the turn ect.

I mean, think about it this way. For every instance of 66 or something oversetting me on the turn, there are 2x more instances of them hitting top pair with an ace or second pair or yadda yadda yadda.

Sets are pretty hard to hit.

Big up to Goggles and Vanessa for this series. It's about time DC had a MTT series. Lookin forward to the rest of the season guys and DC keep atleast 1 MTT and 1 SNG series a season please.

I would like to see some math discussing the idea that flat > fold in regards to the AJo CO open facing a 3bet. I'm pretty skeptical but maybe its closer than I think. Your against a 3betting range that has your hand in not very good shape and there would be 1PSB on the flop which makes it really easy for BB to ship the rest in on 100% of flops. The fact that you would have position doesn't really seem like much of an advantage

Plus you can also argue that calling the 3bet and folding the flop leaves you with a much less powerful stack compared to simply folding pre. Folding leaves you with 20BB's which is enough for restealing light whereas 15BBs doesn't have as much leverage

I mean, think about it this way. For every instance of 66 or something oversetting me on the turn, there are 2x more instances of them hitting top pair with an ace or second pair or yadda yadda yadda.

Sets are pretty hard to hit.

I disagree.
Basically it boils down to the fact that we lose 150 bbs and our tournament life almost 100% of the time if we get set over set on the turn.
Weigh this against picking up like 30 bbs of implied odds when the guy strikes 2nd pair.

The few times we do get set over set we are in big trouble..- Even the worst opponent ever will try to get all his chips in the middle thinking you have AK or AA.


If our opponents do pick up a middle pair on the turn the implied odds might not be that good.. Most people know that J 6 isnt a good hand against AK on K 9 2 J.

-Each pocket pair has a 5% chance of hitting a set with each free card..

-We collect more value from 9s...betting out
-Aces might not fold the flop

Time Link to 00:19:00

I am curious about the merits of opening with 22 in this position. Not so much for being over setted, but we're really opening to set mine OOP. What flop is really good for us other than 22x? Our hand can be under-repped if we hit our set. It just seems the hand gets us into trouble in such an early position unless we think the rest of the table is ridiculously tight.

Also, I have enjoyed this series more than any other so far. I really appreciate Luke, Vanessa and Sensei for doing this. I have been looking forward to something like this since I joined DC.

Thanks Goggles! Nice teaching. And it is also good to see a pro making a miss click once in a while
Nice hands in the video's. Hope you will have many difficult hands the next time.

And please.. Vanessa is mayby looking nice?? I dont no, but she talks 2 mutch

Goodluck in RL and Ingame

Spoonder

About the AJ hand, good analysis but i didn't hear about (or missed) the fact that he 3bets us somewhat big.
To me this kind of looks like he is not folding because he would probably make it a bit smaller if he's folding to a shove (this could also alter his range more to like midpairs AQ AK)....
Thoughts?

I also noticed a fold with KQo in the bottom right in 11th minut, Do you always fold that with 5 ppl behind you? I usually open in that spot...

Time Link to 00:41:19

I think that there is a mistake in the math section, it just didn't seem right intuitively to me and I had to check it through. The mistake is that you are risking 33451 chips to win 51551 chips, when in fact you are risking 33451 chips to win 43551 chips. You can't count his 3-bet to be already in the pot, as you need to meet it and make your bet over that amount. You could win a pot of over 85000 with the math explained in the video, when in fact there is only a pot of 77002 to be won.

I calculated the same thing comparing the final stack size probabilities, not how much we can win. I think there are less ways to make mistakes when doing it this way around.

If we fold: 33451
If we shove and he folds: 51551
If we shove and he calls: (32.7% * 77002) + (67.3% * 0) = 25180
Combined "If we shove" with him calling 23.8% of the time: (23.8% * 51551) + (76.2% * 25180) = 31456

We are losing about 2k on average here, if he is folding only 23.8% of his hands here. If he is never folding, we are losing on average over 8k every time.

My way to find out how often he would need to fold that shoving would be as good as folding.

51551x + (1-x * 25180) = 33451

51551x + 25180 - 25180x = 33451

51551x - 25180x = 33451 - 25180

26371x = 8271

x = 0.3136

So, in my opinion he should have folded 31.4% or more, that shoving would be as good as folding. In this case, the mistake did not affect conclusions.

Wow! I think this series is great. Vanessa, I love your commentary. I also love the openess of Luke for his moves that work and that bust. I find it is all thought for modifying my game. Excellent!

@JtX
Your calc seems correct to me.

Time Link to 00:03:18

IWEARGOGGLES, just wanted to say thank you for answering my annoying questions last night, we were at the same table in the MiniFTOPS #12.... I have to say while the tourney was going on and in between breaks I was watching this series and there are a few things that I picked up on quickly to help my game....needless to say I cashed and I really look forward to watching this series (at work) ..... :-P

ty

very usefull

btw.. in those AA hands, i think the most tourneys arent really deep enough to fold AA post flop.. is this correct?

Great series so far.

In the AA hand, are we always committed here post flop ? The SPR is quite high at 7 (70k effective stacks and 10k in the pot). We raised in EP which is pretty strong, so I don't think villain is c/r bluffing us that often. I understand what Vanessa said wrt calling the check-raise to keep villains range as wide as possible, but the call isn't to reavaluate the turn , it's with the aim of getting it all in on a later street, right ?

I'm quite new to MTT's like this (I come from a cash game background) and so I have trouble knowing the spots where it's ok to put our tourney life at risk or not. (what you describe as the difference between chip EV and cash EV)

Could we not argue that we could find a fold on this flop with AA for our cash EV purposes (ie to conserve chips) and to find a better spot ?

Thanks

Time Link to 00:44:35

I've a question about the math here. Is this not purely a cashgame approach with this equation? Here you are saying you break even when he folds 23% of the time. But that is only break even chip wise, but not every chip you gain gives you more money if you look outside the tournament.

I guess my question really is aren't there any ICM factors that need to be considered in a MTT? And else at what stage do you need to consider them?

I've a question about the math here. Is this not purely a cashgame approach with this equation? Here you are saying you break even when he folds 23% of the time. But that is only break even chip wise, but not every chip you gain gives you more money if you look outside the tournament.

I guess my question really is aren't there any ICM factors that need to be considered in a MTT? And else at what stage do you need to consider them?

Yes, there are definitely ICM factors which need to be considered, and, on the average, they'll tell you to play tighter.

I know I talk about this in every video to some degree, but ICM should only be HEAVILY considered in certain situations (final tables), LIGHTLY considered in others (early in the tournament), and the rest is sort of a blur.

I'm having a tough time remembering this exact hand, but looking at it briefly I believe it to be an easy fold without history. Had villain 3-bet bluffed at all, I'd throw ICM out the window and shove since I think I have a reasonably tough table.

ICM doesn't consider field strength and it also sort of assumes you'll find better spots.

I spazzed here, looking back on it.

i dont know if this is a me problem or not, but in both episodes 1 and 2 i downloaded them, and the mp4 files are only audio. i only care because im going on a trip and was hoping to watch these in the car. just fyi for the tech dudes here, i think there is a problem with that. The WMV video works, but not the mp4.

Time Link to 00:44:07

Going off what JtX said, I'd like to see the math run again for this hand with AJo.

Thanks.

Time Link to 00:36:52

yes, but you do feel like shit when you make the correct equity call and it cuuts your stack in chips

Excellent.... I am in love with tournamentality and this as well... tournament trials... excellent stuff.. learning a lot... love having joined DC... Thx a lot guys...