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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by sthief09 (Micro/Small Stakes)

first... great vid.

I really like the format. More please I love it when you go nuts with the math so please add some math to this series. It would be cool if you picked a few spots to analyze in a more in-depth manner and did some calculations etc.

P.S. Don't you guys notice that you aren't doing a particularly good job of hiding the screen names? *cough* HUD popups *cough* Not that I think it matters much.

Time Link to 00:10:10

Hi Stheif09, thanks for another great series.
Pre I think his range for calling the raise is about:
99-22,A8s-A2s,KTs-K2s,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A9o-A7o,KJo-K9o,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o Agree??

I will not start making EV calculations untill we can get to a king of agreement on an asumption of what he's calling Heros raise with.

I really like the format. More please I love it when you go nuts with the math so please add some math to this series. It would be cool if you picked a few spots to analyze in a more in-depth manner and did some calculations etc.

P.S. Don't you guys notice that you aren't doing a particularly good job of hiding the screen names? *cough* HUD popups *cough* Not that I think it matters much.

+1

Time Link to 00:18:27

I think raising small to better represent a free turn play with 75s or something is better than raising to $22, especially given that I think he bet/folds JJ+ to this sizing and feels great about it.

Time Link to 00:34:42

Before I watch the rest of the hand, I want to flesh out some thoughts on villain's sizing. Josh alluded to the fact that the squeezer is most likely done with his hand. So, with only hero left to act on the button, perhaps his smallish betsize is designed to try and just take down the pot with a cheap bluff here? It seems a flat may be best to me on the flop.

Time Link to 00:36:07

Lol, nevermind.

I really like the format. More please I love it when you go nuts with the math so please add some math to this series. It would be cool if you picked a few spots to analyze in a more in-depth manner and did some calculations etc.

P.S. Don't you guys notice that you aren't doing a particularly good job of hiding the screen names? *cough* HUD popups *cough* Not that I think it matters much.

Great, thanks for the feedback. I purposely left the door open to do more of those in-depth analyses so I do plan on doing that. The one spot that I've been wanting to look at lately is 3-betting and flopping some mediocre top or 2nd pair. I think those are some of the trickiest spots in NLHE esp if you are 3-betting a lot from the blinds.

About the screennames, I just figured it'd be the nice thing to do to hide the SNs considering I'm hiding his sn (which he didn't ask me to do--I do it for everyone). the popups are sort of unavoidable without changing his HUD. I think it's better than nothing because if we talk about a hand for 10 minutes, the guy's screenname is staring you right in the face otherwise. Merge is a relatively small network so I feel better blocking out the sn even if I can't block out the popup.

Hi Stheif09, thanks for another great series.
Pre I think his range for calling the raise is about:
99-22,A8s-A2s,KTs-K2s,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A9o-A7o,KJo-K9o,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o Agree??

I will not start making EV calculations untill we can get to a king of agreement on an asumption of what he's calling Heros raise with.

it's tough to say whether a 40/26 thinks Q9o or 53s is a better hand. I tend to think the bad LAG types like to play small suited cards. Maybe mix up the preflop range a bit.

your range is 22.3%. the following is 28%, but I threw in some bigger card hands in case he doesn't 3-bet them and also some of those smaller suited cards. maybe a little loose but wanted to throw something out there.

JJ,99-22,ATs-A2s,KQs,KTs-K5s,Q8s+,J8s+,T7s+,96s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,53s+,43s,AQo,ATo-A5o,KJo-K9o,QTo+,JTo,T9o

I think raising small to better represent a free turn play with 75s or something is better than raising to $22, especially given that I think he bet/folds JJ+ to this sizing and feels great about it.

yeah it all hinges on whether he folds an overpair. the smaller raise is good if we need to string him along. I do think eventually he's in the same situation. if he's inclined to fold JJ he'll just do it on the turn rather than the flop. the small raise makes a bit more money by getting him to call the small turn raise, but if that's the case then I'd rather just flat. if he's going with his overpair then trying to get all-in by the turn makes a lot of sense.

Before I watch the rest of the hand, I want to flesh out some thoughts on villain's sizing. Josh alluded to the fact that the squeezer is most likely done with his hand. So, with only hero left to act on the button, perhaps his smallish betsize is designed to try and just take down the pot with a cheap bluff here? It seems a flat may be best to me on the flop.

yeah if I was the CO that's what I'd do with KQ. nice spot to pick up the pot.

okay I see your resoning, so we assume Villian is 3betting depolarized? QQ+,TT,AJs+,KJs,QJs,AKo,AJo,KQo,QJo (it's only 6.9% not 9% as the HUD shows) FWIW.

The quostion we need to ask ourselves whether or not to cbet is, the value better now or later?

- Villian folds to cbet 49% so imo the value of letting him make multiple bluffs with flushdraws, 88-22 and ace high is far better than charge him now.
- Villians bet IP vs. missed cb is high 77%, so I thinks we can asume he will almost bluff his whole range OTF, compared to if we bet, we are valuecutting ourselves from getting 1 street value from suited connectors that have 2nd pair, who otherwise would have folded.
Villians WWSF is also high so I think it's reasonable to think he will fire streets with a lot of his hand if the flush don't hit the turn.and spaaz out mostly like he did by betting river very polarised, then we call, because he will have enough bluff in his range for us to call.
- So my plan vs. Villian would be valuechack flop and call him down light, and OTR if we think he polarizes we can do some simple math like:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.792% 61.32% 00.47% 65 0.50 { JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, 9c9d, 8d8h, 77, 4d4h, 4d4s, 4h4s, 2c2h, 2c2s, 2h2s, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KcQc, KhQh, KsQs, KcTc, KhTh, KsTs, Kc9c, Kh8h, Kc7c, Kh7h, Ks7s, Kc6c, Kh6h, Ks6s, Kc5c, Kh5h, Ks5s, QdJd, QdTd, Qd9d, Qd8d, JdTd, Jd9d, Jd8d, Td9d, Td8d, Td7d, 9d8d, 9h8h, 9d7d, 9d6d, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8d6d, 8h6h, 7d6d, 7d5d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 6h4h, 6s4s, 5s4s, 53s, 4s3s, Ac8d, Ac8h, Ad8h, Ah8d, As8d, As8h, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs, KhJc, KhJd, KhJs, KsJc, KsJd, KsJh, KcTd, KcTh, KcTs, KhTc, KhTd, KhTs, KsTc, KsTd, KsTh, Kc9d, Kd9h, Kh9c, Kh9d, Ks9c, Ks9d, T9o }
Hand 1: 38.208% 37.74% 00.47% 40 0.50 { 9h9s }

I have done cardremoval, removed some of the smaller pair, and ssumeing he only 3br JJ 50%, We only need 33% so it's a call.

Thoughs?
Thx...

Time Link to 00:21:56

Doesn't hero's turn check induce a river bluff (I mean a made hand into a bluff)? So we have to call?

Time Link to 00:24:49

Why you open tot 2.87 and not to 3$?

Time Link to 00:03:25

87dd, you're thinking about raising flop here trying to make him fold AT, A9, small pocket pairs. Wouldn't you expect a lot of those hands to not cbet this flop?