# Poker Video: MTT/SNG by Luceboy (Mid Stakes)

## Where Did I Put that Fold Equity?: Episode One

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### Where Did I Put that Fold Equity?: Episode One by Luceboy

In this opening episode Luceboy and md261 discuss conditional probability and ICM adjustments based on Future EV theory.

#### About Where Did I Put that Fold Equity?

Luceboy takes theory of SnG's into a whole new level with this series of theoretical discussion as well as practical applications.

### Video Details

• Game:
• Stakes: Mid Stakes
• 42 minutes long
• Posted about 1 year ago

## Comments for Where Did I Put that Fold Equity?: Episode One

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21 posts
Joined 01/2010

first?

#### Airdraken

8 posts
Joined 07/2011

Could you bet here and if he folds, show the Jack? this way we get an image of betting when we hit?

#### Luceboy

95 posts
Joined 11/2010

Could you bet here and if he folds, show the Jack? this way we get an image of betting when we hit?

You could bet here, in fact I could go as far as to say you should bet here. It looks fairly apparent that you have your opponent beaten so betting for value is obviously a good option. I will admit that I wish I had bet in this particular situation but sometimes when you're playing a lot of tables you don't play as perfectly as you would like!

#### wireless

40 posts
Joined 07/2009

I've spent a lot of time looking at this stuff.

A few thoughts of my own, the best thing you can do to look at this, is to use the holdemresources beta. Take that chipstacks and ranges for all players in the possible end stacks. It will tell you expectation for the chip setup and ranges.

My take on the utg shove problem is that if we live, we are taking a similar -EV setup with 5bb in the big next hand too. So in effect, we are still losing about the same equity next hand with 5bb vs 3.5bb, it hurts a little less psychologically because we are shoving 3.5bb instead of calling 3.5bb. Im not too sure about 6m, but I have seen lots of spots for 9m and its usually a small difference in edge, like .1%.

Hope this helps.

#### Luceboy

95 posts
Joined 11/2010

I've spent a lot of time looking at this stuff.

A few thoughts of my own, the best thing you can do to look at this, is to use the holdemresources beta. Take that chipstacks and ranges for all players in the possible end stacks. It will tell you expectation for the chip setup and ranges.

My take on the utg shove problem is that if we live, we are taking a similar -EV setup with 5bb in the big next hand too. So in effect, we are still losing about the same equity next hand with 5bb vs 3.5bb, it hurts a little less psychologically because we are shoving 3.5bb instead of calling 3.5bb. Im not too sure about 6m, but I have seen lots of spots for 9m and its usually a small difference in edge, like .1%.

Hope this helps.

Thanks for the heads-up regarding this resource - I didn't know there was a beta!

Deciding whether to shove UTG or fold and consider calling all-in when in the BB is a real tough one. One side of me wants to always side with Collin Moshmann. He has written an excellent 6max SnG book and is of the opinion that once you lose fold equity you might as well consider yourself out of the tournament. However there are obviously a lot of factors that you cannot overlook (such as good regs behind who may realise you are shoving wide and call wide themselves).

If by what you said you mean that the difference in 9mans for this situation (between shoving UTG or calling all-in when in the BB) is only very small, then I would almost always advocate shoving if you think its marginal. It all goes back to Al and my SnG philosophy: if you're debating a call, fold, and if you're debating a raise, raise.

#### wireless

40 posts
Joined 07/2009

I don't have a problem with that line of thinking. I think conventional wisdom on these spots is to take a -.5% edge. I think the reality is more likely that versus good players we can take a -.2% or similar (and maybe even less!). Versus bad players we gain with every hand by playing correctly. Passive donks who walk us and bad regs who gift us equity shoving atc when you are clearly calling very wide.

I think this problem will be solved with a pretty high degree of accuracy within the next few years. So far, I just have never seen any better explanation for it than 'a big blind is worth xyz equity, so next hand is worth abc less.' This is of course true whether we have 3.5 or 5 bb. At anyrate, I think its a tiny mistake.

I understand I am in the minority on this one.

#### Luceboy

95 posts
Joined 11/2010

I don't have a problem with that line of thinking. I think conventional wisdom on these spots is to take a -.5% edge. I think the reality is more likely that versus good players we can take a -.2% or similar (and maybe even less!). Versus bad players we gain with every hand by playing correctly. Passive donks who walk us and bad regs who gift us equity shoving atc when you are clearly calling very wide.

I think this problem will be solved with a pretty high degree of accuracy within the next few years. So far, I just have never seen any better explanation for it than 'a big blind is worth xyz equity, so next hand is worth abc less.' This is of course true whether we have 3.5 or 5 bb. At anyrate, I think its a tiny mistake.

I understand I am in the minority on this one.

It seems like you have thought about this a lot and just because you are in the minority it does not mean that you are wrong. Thinking for yourself and avoiding conventional wisdom is an important habit if you want to maximise the amount of money you make playing poker.

I believe that you are right that there is a good chance that this will be solved to a much greater degree of accuracy in the next few years. Until then I'm going to shove my trash UTG when crippled and pray to be a 45% underdog when called!

#### BaseMetal

2051 posts
Joined 01/2010

At about 25:00, the three handed you as the mid stack, with big stack on left problem. If you do not take a reasonable edge vs the small stack this time, the neg Diff% will actually increase on the next orbit (eventually it does start to fall again but it gets positive much too late only when you become a very small stack! less than 1000 or so). If you don't take this opportunity taking an edge of -0.25% the small stack increases by 225, the next orbit the Diff will be of the order of -0.6% to -1.0% with the same hand range. This shows that you may want to tangle at this point, the longer you wait (unless too long!) the harder it is to call.

2 posts
Joined 09/2012

Are you fcking kidding me.

You actually put the Monty Hall problem in the video, and have it wrong.

THE KEY TO THE PROBLEM IS THE HOST _KNOWS_ WHICH DOOR HAS A GOAT.

Therefore, due to the host ALWAYS being able to open a goat, it's no longer a "2/3" shot.

If you really believe you have a case for changing doors, i think you should try it with your friend..

You pick a door, he shows you a goat (he knows where it is), and you change.. Run that scenario 100+ times and you will see changing door will give you exactly as many cars as your first pick.

Jesus christ, it's embarassing to look at you making this an example to imply to poker.

#### BaseMetal

2051 posts
Joined 01/2010

Welcome to DC, Nice first post XioXKraD

You pick a door, he shows you a goat (he knows where it is), and you change.. Run that scenario 100+ times and you will see changing door will give you exactly as many cars as your first pick.

If you do this you should get twice as many cars if you change doors, and this is the point.

I do hope you are not just trolling.

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