arh7rf
401 posts
Joined 01/2010
I think you spent too much time on the first hand. We are getting nearly 3 to 1 on the call, I think its a snap after the Q pairs on the river. Sure, he has us beat sometimes but a call here has to be very +EV.
In other news, I've over doubled my bankroll since the start of this. I like the whole idea of the series and I think it would be more interesting watching you build your bankroll rather than going over forum posts.
Posted 5 months ago
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phitlat
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sthief09
1297 posts
Joined 07/2007
I think you spent too much time on the first hand. We are getting nearly 3 to 1 on the call, I think its a snap after the Q pairs on the river. Sure, he has us beat sometimes but a call here has to be very +EV.
In other news, I've over doubled my bankroll since the start of this. I like the whole idea of the series and I think it would be more interesting watching you build your bankroll rather than going over forum posts.
These posts are really helpful to me because obviously my goal is to appeal to as many viewers as possible and sometimes what I think people would be interested in is different than what people are actually interested in.
I can promise you there won't be another video with just two hands. I do like reviewing hands in-depth in my videos because I think it's more unique than a sweat video, and I think it also suits my strengths in terms of outlining my logical thought process and crunching some #s. I tried to pick hands that can apply to different situations. I can't stress enough how important I think the KQ hand is. With that said, in hindsight, 20-25 minutes each is usually going to be excessive.
I still think the KT hand is close. Sometimes getting nearly 3-1 is by design. I alluded to that in the video. I think that while smaller bets give us better pot odds, when nondescript regs make them, it might be proportionately more likely that he's trying to coax a call. The Q is a great card for the hand that we have, which is the hand we're representing, and as a result that also might make it less likely he's bluffing. There are some nuances to that hand that make it tough to analyze, but I thought those same nuances also made it interesting. Maybe I was off the mark with how interesting that hand would be.
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sthief09
1297 posts
Joined 07/2007
Hand 1: Why not more consideration for A2-A5x and s range for villain with ~32 vpip over 60 hands?
I think that's putting too much into a VP$IP over 60 hands. If he was a 32/10 then we could assume that he's probably too loose preflop. A 32/27 over 60 hands is almost certainly going to be a regular, and I would not think a regular would call Axs out of position against a 3-bet.
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arh7rf
401 posts
Joined 01/2010
Maybe I was a little quick to blow off the KT hand but from what I gathered, we only had stats on 6 flop plays from villain so he was actually more of an unknown.
He checked back the turn so that discredits a majority of the flushes he can have. While he could have slowplayed AA and KK, I doubt it. JJ is more of a possibility because even some regs are scared to 4bet it.
Possibly he could have slowplayed a Q on the turn being scared of a check shove, however, the Q pairs on the river making it MUCH less likely that he has a Q.
Most hands can be discounted from his range although I agree that there are hands that beat us in his range because slowplaying is not out of the question.
Then there is his bet on the river which by design gives us odds. We would have to know that he only bets this way with nutted hands that are trying to get a call from a weak range and I agree that our range looks extremely weak e.g. AKo
The thing that makes this a call is that we are being exploited to the max if we are folding this river. The only hands that I'm most concerned with is ATs.
There are also a lot of weak regs who will not 4bet AK IP fwiw. that now want to fold a small pocket pair out of our range.
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arh7rf
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Ass Get to Jigglin
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Ass Get to Jigglin
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sthief09
1297 posts
Joined 07/2007
what would he be trying to bluff us off of if he turned those PP's into a bluff?
this line of thought is why I thought it was a fold at first. it's one of those spots where our hand is more or less face up, and we probably don't expect him to try to bluff us off it since our line has POT CONTROL written all over it. but with the way his range works out (ie, it's weak), his bluffing frequency with PPs and AJ would have to be so low for us to call that it's probably worth calling despite all that.
I keep waffling on whether or not I think the turn is a bet, but the above has me back in the bet turn corner I think. any thoughts on the turn?
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ralphcifaretto
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Joined 12/2010