Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by threads13 (Micro/Small Stakes)

Time Link to 00:07:32

Continuation from my comment on last video on your note taking;

Yeah, that's way better .

One other thing I'd note (especially in conjunction w/ your note on "4b/shove AK in EP (FR) note) is that he may be not as aware of positional dynamics. Your bluff here is a good example in that given positions (he raises in UTG, you double barrel a dry board) he should expect your bluffing frequency to be low and for you to be value betting a good chunk of your range.

Time Link to 00:19:03

I think them folding 99/88 is a little optimistic, but you are raising from UTG+1 in a FR game at 100nl on merge, and I have next to no experience that i can draw off of on analyzing player tendencies in that game. Sooooo yeah lol.

Time Link to 00:29:01

Gawd.

Assume every player has an average of ~3% 3bet (this is obviously pretty much pure value in every case). This means that you have to fold 18% of the time after you raise this hand.

After that, you have all the multi-way pots you'll get into. I simply don't believe you can show a profit here with A6o in a mw pot. I may be proven wrong, but you basically have to believe that you can cbet w/ 0% equity and show a profit given how poor your hand flops and how un-realizable any equity you flop will be.

After all the times you either raise/fold, or else get stuck in a mw pot that I don't believe you can show a profit in, you are stuck against a fish that probably is nearly flipping when he calls you, and you're just as likely to value cut yourself with A6o as you are to value bet.

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I'm all in favor of playing anything playable against the fish. But IMO this needs to be tempered with a respect for positional dynamics, and for the equities still in play. I don't think this open is profitable. You could start to talk about opening hands which flop decently on a higher number of boards in this spot, and it's not a bad place to open up in, but I think A6o is simply too wide.

@B-rye

If each player has an average of ~3% 3bet, then we are getting 3bet 16.5% of the time (1 - (0.97^6) ). To see why you can't just add the %s, consider an example where every player is 3betting 20% of the time. Then you'd be getting 3bet 120% of the time.

Nonetheless, I agree with you that opening A6o is bad for a bunch of reasons. Probably the average 3bet % of each opponent is higher than 3%, and not only that but you're gonna see a bunch of multiway pots with a hand that flops really poorly. If we knew for sure that it would fold to the BB then of course we'd open, but way too much bad stuff can happen behind us for opening to be good. A6s seems fine

I think you guys are underestimating how well we can do v-betting the fish. Obviously there's no way way to prove it, and I agree that it's loose, but the guy is playing half of his hands. We're probably getting him HU in possition greater then 50% of the time and those situations are pretty awesome. He's going to be defending stuff like 73s here. He'll have K7o. A lot of great things happen when we get this guy in a pot. I realize it's different than the norm so a bit of disagreement is expected. I guess I'd agree with you guys if it was K6o or 75o, but I really think A6o is fine. Also, note who is on my left here. We have a 14/10 who likely won't get too in my face. We have a 25/5 who doesn't have his auto-rebuy on that is probably kind of fishy. We have Spew who is immediately on our left and therefore probably will give our MP open a lot of respect and can't play too many hands himself because of his postion. Then we have 22/12 who folds to a ton of c-bets. We can navigate most post-flop scenarios when those guys get involved. However, at the end of the day I think the fishy player in the BB is bad enough that it allows us to play this admittedly bad hand. Fold it you'd like, it's probably not a big deal, but I do ask you guys keep open-minded about new ideas.


Also, to be completely accurate we can't simply say we can get 3-bet .03^6 to see how often we get 3-bet. It looks like this:

P(player on left 3-bets) *+ P(player on left doesn't 3-bet )*P(player 2 to our left 3-bets) + P(player to our doesn't 3bet)*P(player two to our left doesn't 3bet)*P(player 3 to our left 3-bets) + ... P(players N-1 fold)*P(Player N 3-bets)

The numbers end up being very similar, but I thought I'd incude this for sake of completeness.

Time Link to 00:25:51

Table 2: What's your plan here w/ AcAh? And same hand on turn in the same situation?

Table 2: What's your plan here w/ AcAh? And same hand on turn in the same situation?

Still v-bet flop (especially with the 70% dude in there). I think the turn is a check, though. Hard to image what we're getting value from (draws?). Draws will often bet if we check anyways, so we probably get better value by checking. Yes, we give up a free card vs his pair+draws but putting in a bet bad is worse that not protecting a pot, imo.