Time Link to 00:39:22
So based on your comment here (listen immediately after the timestamp), what rivers would you bet a third barrel on? Or did I misunderstand what you were implying?
About the river check fold I feel like that's usually what I'd do in the moment, but after looking at the math I think a call may be +EV or super close even with a realistic range assignment - for example I was including things like A2-A5cc, QT, QQ+, sets 44,55,TT, 87hh (basically all value combos) and of course bluffs comprised mostly of Axhh and one or two suited connectors that missed like J9hh or 89hh. He is 22/11/4 or so it seems so I'm not sure what types of hands he's raising, but he seems to be pretty OK with flatting/limping, presumably with marginals. The exact range I used copied and pasted from PStove (sorry its a bit disorganized, but that's how PStove is outputting it):
Equity: 27% (need 33% - yes I realize this is -EV as it stands, but read on)
First a note: This range isn't supposed to be "everything" - the idea behind this range is to give him about the minimum number of bluffs he can have while including almost every value hand.
Now... If/when you start discounting some of his bigger value hands like sets or 2 pair it quickly gets a lot better for us....... the argument I think is that he just doesn't *always* slowplay a set or 2 pair past the turn. He may often put in a raise before the river (ie on flop or turn) because the board is so wet and we have a lot of chips behind. I think the natural reaction by the vast majority of players is to at least be raising the turn with a big made hand to protect against the rather large number of possible draws, get value and just get money into the pot so the river can be a bigger bet. So we really could discount a decent number of his big hands and then things very quickly get +EV for us. We're also assuming that he floats the flop some of the time with a hand like A9, and he may not be the type of player that would do that (he limped in preflop which tends to signify that he's trying to hit the flop well).
Also, can we say for certain that he pots with 2 pair or a set on the river? It's a situation where we can say "well he should know he is never beat" but that doesn't necessarily mean he bets pot because a lot of the time its just going to scare us away. So in addition to the analysis knowing that its pretty close, we might be able to look at the pot size bet (given the action and the board texture) and be a little more comfortable check/calling. I'm not saying I would check call any bet, what I'm saying is that this particular sizing makes me want to call more in a relative sense.