Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by terp (Micro/Small Stakes)

Time Link to 00:33:40

why is it that weird to get raised there? of course it's better to just call there wtih a J or pocket 4 because the fish is in the pot, but if villain got the read that hero doesn't barrel a lot of Turn's why not raise there a J, 44 + fish maybe overcall with any 4 or pocket pair, or am I totally wrong?

why is it that weird to get raised there? of course it's better to just call there wtih a J or pocket 4 because the fish is in the pot, but if villain got the read that hero doesn't barrel a lot of Turn's why not raise there a J, 44 + fish maybe overcall with any 4 or pocket pair, or am I totally wrong?

fish probably won't overcall with so much action in front of him, and he really forces hero to have a jack also. even if hero won't barrel his air, he could consider folding overpairs now or soon.

basically, he forces hero to have a very strong range right away or to bluff.

hmmm interesting concept i often fall into this trap

today i played a hand hu that kind of ilistrates it

villain was 3 betting alot almost 30%

flated oop
board came akkcc and he lead out

i had a3 and called turn came a three and he lead again i thought that it was unlikly he had lead a k here and all good aces he was prolly 3 betting so i raised thinking that id rep qjq10 low fds or pps or even air at this point villain then snap shoved and really wasnt sure what to make of it i decided to call and he showed me k8of

hrmm that's not really what the series is about. to make sure i understand the action: you raise the sb, he calls and bets flop and turn, you raise turn and he jams?

just knowing he 3bets a lot doesn't tell us what hands he might flat or how he might play them, so it's definitely not clear yet that he reps nothing or very little. i can see how it would be confusing, but we don't have enough info just from an undeveloped preflop statistic that he can't have Ax+ on the flop and turn here.

beyond that, your raise doesn't seem planned out. you say you want to rep QJ QT or low FDs - for what purpose? to get him to jam air? when he does jam you 'decide' to call. if you're raising here (which i don't believe you should), it can only really be to call, since raising as a bluff doesn't make sense with your hand.

Time Link to 00:31:28

Can we not assume that he may do this w/ AQ/AJ knowing you're unlikely to have a set or 2 pair yourself on this board? If he puts you on a worse Ax, then his river shove is pretty brilliant lol

true. we pretty much always have Ax on the river, and jamming A9+ should print money.

that said, he has to play these hands like that pre-river and the reason why we think he reps nothing is because we think this is incredibly unlikely.

1) it takes quite a bit of history/reads for raising flop with a one pair hand to be >calling, even if he thinks his AJ or whatever is virtually always best. given our holding on flop, you can see that such a conclusion would be wrong.

2) if he did raise flop with AJ, checking turn seems somewhat FPSy and inconsistent. raise flop/check turn/shove river is realllllllly odd when he could just bet turn/bet river.

so i don't think we'll see AQ AJ here, though if he somehow played them like this, i would hope he would shove river with them.

true. we pretty much always have Ax on the river, and jamming A9+ should print money.

that said, he has to play these hands like that pre-river and the reason why we think he reps nothing is because we think this is incredibly unlikely.

1) it takes quite a bit of history/reads for raising flop with a one pair hand to be >calling, even if he thinks his AJ or whatever is virtually always best. given our holding on flop, you can see that such a conclusion would be wrong.

2) if he did raise flop with AJ, checking turn seems somewhat FPSy and inconsistent. raise flop/check turn/shove river is realllllllly odd when he could just bet turn/bet river.

so i don't think we'll see AQ AJ here, though if he somehow played them like this, i would hope he would shove river with them.

Thanks for the quick response.

My thought process here is that hero's donk-bet into a UTG opener + a CO and button flat should normally be perceived as strong hand (anything from set to 2 pair type hands). However, I can see how CO could have a hard time giving SB credit for AK/AA/KK which narrows hero's donk-lead range to esentially 22, A2 and a whole bunch of Ax hands that CO believes he is ahead of and can induce action against.

I agree with you, though, that his turn play makes very little sense, but it still doesn't make sense that he would make this play on the flop as a bluff knowing how strong UTG's range should be and consequently how much stronger our donking range looks. So, yeah, in essence this hand is a big mind-bender to me lol.

mind benders are great for theory and discussion!

it is an ugly spot OTR as played...

hi terp, i started to watch your series, and i played today a hand which i think fits into this episode

villain was basically unknown tag 24/13 after 150 hands

at the time i p[layed like 30 hands on this table, nothing unusual from this guy

i lost a stack a few hands eariler to another tag

i 3bet 99 he calls with TT IP

i c-b 764 flop he raises, i call, and he insta jams AI on 8 bck flush draw turn i call (spew i know)

then i doubled up through a fish who just left the table

and then this happened:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
BB ($200)
($198)
UTG ($412)
Hero ($359)

Dealt to Hero A K

raises to $6, fold, Hero calls $6, fold

FLOP ($14) K T 6

bets $10, Hero calls $10

TURN ($34) K T 6 6

checks, Hero bets $16, calls $16

RIVER ($66) K T 6 6 5

checks, Hero bets $40, raises to $166 (AI), Hero calls $126

i said in the chat "no sense" and i made the call

for me it doesnt really make sense to turn a made hand into a bluff in his spot, i have Kx or JQs and some floats with bck flush draw

but on the other hand, he shouldnt have any pure bluffs in his range

at the time i though it doesnt make sense also to make such a play for value

but now as i see it its more weird to be bluffin here then to be value C/raising

im still not sure

so --> "he reps nothing i call ??

yup, good hand for the topic. as far as the other hands, i'd probably just jam 99 on the flop and flat and call it off with somewhere around QQ on turns.

what's going on with your turn sizing? looks bizarre.

as far as river, he can certainly arrive here w/some better made hands. is it the best line w/those hands? maybe/arguably, but it's pretty hard for him to have air, as you said. a hand like AT probably just calls or folds if it's taken this line, and it's not like he plays QJ like this. if he has air it should be a weird Tx or JJ but i just don't think many people c/r those (nor should they, in general).

what's going on with your turn sizing? looks bizarre.

true, wanted to see how he reacts vs small bet (in case i have QJ or some float) i guess im loosing value from Kx and few worse hands, it could be better in COvsBU where i would have more floats vs his wider opening range, but here i will have most of the time a value hand so should bet more (he wont care about sizing)


i guess my low turn bet created uncommon spot couse he had A7, i guess he could do that also with AQ, AJ, not sure if its good, i mean i called (almost folded with 1 sec left)) but i think i got lucky this time

that's cool

i def support experimentation. great for learning as long as you keep an open mind and pay attention!

did he have a flush draw? i don't think his turn c/c is good with any hand that might need to bluff river. ugh this is really bad. the thing is when you see someone do two things this poor in a hand i'd prob write off the possibility of folding later v him, since you just can't give him credit for playing well

no flush draw, just A high

i don't think his turn c/c is good with any hand that might need to bluff river

agree with this, but it shows how crazy shit even regs are capable of doing

hey terp,

Nice series so far, i'm just catching it now. I'm thinking that with this topic in particular, its a good spot to apply Bayes theorem. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes_theorem

For simplicity, we can say a particular line, which reps nothing, is a bluff 90% of the time( this is probably fair for most rep-nothing lines since people do flop sets). But only 10% of the poker population will take these rep-nothing lines with bluffs ( this is very much up for debate, and is very crucial to the outcome).

R = rep nothing line
B = bluff line
V = value line
PB = population that bluffs
PV = population for value


Bayes theorem says...

P(% B | if facing R) = P(% R is | a B) * P ( % PB) / ( P(% R is | a B) * P(%PB) + P(% R is | a V) * P(%PV) )

giving us P(% Bluffing if facing a rep-nothing line) = (90%)(10%) / ( (90%)(10%) + (10%)(90%) ) = 50%

So, if only 10% of the poker population bluffs with a rep nothing line, and the remaining poker population is always going to show up with a value line, then the % change that a rep-nothing line is a bluff is only 50%. I've assumed that everyone will at some point take the rep-nothing line. But if some ppl will never take it, then the % chance of a bluff goes up, but it never reaches 90%.

Basically, the theory revolves around the fact the number of false positives ( in our case - the 10% of the time the line is for value) is very relevant when only a small portion of a population is involved in the event. If only 5% of the poker population bluffs this way, the % chance of a bluff actually goes down to 33%, since the number of false positives out-weighs the actual cases of bluffs by 2:1. ( 5% of the time its a bluff, but 10% of the time its for value - is more relevant than its a bluff 90% of the time).

So for our poker theory, just because you know a rep-nothing line is a bluff 90% of the time, you still don't have enough information to call.