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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by threads13 (Mid Stakes)

Time Link to 00:50:48

Hey thread13,

very nice vid.

I have got a question:

Where did you get the probability for flopping a GS?

Is there a workingpaper or program, which can help with figuring out the probabilities for flopping different kind of hands on the flop for each hand? (I do not mean the very basic stuff like flopping a pair, trips, twopair or FD)

Best wishes

I go to propokertools pql runner

Enter something like this:

select histogram(handtype(hero,flop))
from game='holdem'
, syntax='generic'
, hero='**'

And boom. Now that's just for any random 2 cards, to use a range, replace the stars with a range (here in ppt 'generic' format, but 'classic' is also supported. Look at the examples to get the hang of how it works, but if you've ever used a relational database it's pretty obvious.

Time Link to 00:22:31

how can we not be dominated so often? with 17% open (perhaps a bit wider from the CO) he has a ton of Ax in his range. so especially our one pair hands are not really all that good.
otoh we wont loose too much since we dont go crazy with top pair no kicker, but im just saying...

how can we not be dominated so often? with 17% open (perhaps a bit wider from the CO) he has a ton of Ax in his range. so especially our one pair hands are not really all that good.
otoh we wont loose too much since we dont go crazy with top pair no kicker, but im just saying...

Probably like 25% from the CO. Here's a 27% range.
22+, A2s+, A8o+, K8s+, KTo+, Q9s+, QTo+, J9s+, JTo, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s

There's a whole lot of other stuff other than specifically A4o+, AA.

Only 27% of his range is a better A and we are only worried about that when you both hit an A. Conversely you are not dominated 70% of the time. It's really not a big concern. You won't both hit an A that often, and sometimes you dominate him (admittedly not often). There's only two left in the deck, so that's like hitting a set. So when you both have an A you hit it about 13%. He only has that range 27% for starters. If you put an A on the flop that number drops to 20% due to card removal. If he has you dominated and you both miss, then it comes down to who is more aggro. We can win most of those situations because we are starting with a stronger range than him (he has a 27% while we have a 15%), so we can play our range fast pre-flop and there isn't a whole lot he can do about it that we can't easily counter-adjust to.

If a guy's range is wide, he can't simultaneously have a wide range AND have us dominated a lot. If he has a wide range he just doesn't have anything a lot, and misses a lot. So, we have a lot of steal equity post. That's why Axs is good. We hit hands we can steal with a lot AND he'll bet when we hit an A.

If we miss, we win a lot. If we hit, we win a lot. Good situation for us.

Time Link to 00:28:11

Comment to student on table 1 with betting the AJ on the river.

I think you were possibly thinking you were going to fold out a pair like 7x, 66-22, keep in mind that there is some chance villain will fold these to a flop c-bet, in this case maybe not a ton since he's loosey goosey, but yeah, that's a small part of his range and everything else calls, the 8 on the river sucks too because maybe he's so stupid that he thinks, "Oh I have two pair" when he has 7x, Also that 8 binks some 86, 98 type stuff. :-)

I don't notice your bet size! that may change it :-)

Time Link to 00:36:09

Yeah, my favorite spot came up! Second pair!

Threads, we've kind of talked about this, but you said we can balance by checking back gutters and stuff or air in these same situations occassionally....is that balancing to induce a bet so we can call for value on the turn? So he sees us checkback air x% of the time and give up if he leads into us on the turn and we give up, so since he sees us do this he'll bet more as a bluff that we can call on the turn is that the gist?

Also, I just talked to Dani about this hand, and I saw him check back Q8 on Q99 or so, and he said it's important to have a hand like this in our check back range that can call a turn and river bet. I assume he was using that to balance a hand like TT or JJ on a Q99 flop that he wants to check back as well that would have trouble calling a bet/bet line on turn and river from villain....So In hero's example here, isn't it a good idea to check back an A8 type of hand a good % of the time to balance so we have a stronger hand in our range? I mean, this guy is 16/13, I don't think with a hand like A8 we can pound 3 streets w/out being shown AT/AQ or something.

-Thanks.

-Thanks.

Time Link to 00:52:00

Back to balance on Table 1. Ok, so lets say we do call the 3-bet w/the QTs if villains 3-bet range is wide enough.

-We Ck/R gutshots, and fold if he jams
-We CK/R FD and Combo Draw and OESD and call it off.
-We ck/call Qx, and Tx and try to get to showdown.

In the very instant I ck/call a flop like this, I feel I've just said to villain "I have a pair, Please lets play nice and just let me get to showdown...."

How or should I take different lines to protect this weaker check calling range?

Time Link to 01:00:07

You sort of answered my last question about playing the QTs if we flop a pair in the 3-bet pot :-)

Yeah, my favorite spot came up! Second pair!

Threads, we've kind of talked about this, but you said we can balance by checking back gutters and stuff or air in these same situations occassionally....is that balancing to induce a bet so we can call for value on the turn? So he sees us checkback air x% of the time and give up if he leads into us on the turn and we give up, so since he sees us do this he'll bet more as a bluff that we can call on the turn is that the gist?

Also, I just talked to Dani about this hand, and I saw him check back Q8 on Q99 or so, and he said it's important to have a hand like this in our check back range that can call a turn and river bet. I assume he was using that to balance a hand like TT or JJ on a Q99 flop that he wants to check back as well that would have trouble calling a bet/bet line on turn and river from villain....So In hero's example here, isn't it a good idea to check back an A8 type of hand a good % of the time to balance so we have a stronger hand in our range? I mean, this guy is 16/13, I don't think with a hand like A8 we can pound 3 streets w/out being shown AT/AQ or something.

-Thanks.

-Thanks.

Well it's certainly not calling for value, per say, as you're needing 10:1 on a call for gutshot, but it's nice to check back and float with something instead of a complete airball. You're right that this means we can induce some bluffs, which is good when we have second pair, and we can rebluff when we hold the gutshot. If we just only check back 2nd pair we just always have 2nd pair.

Right, it's a good idea particularly if we are going to induce bluffs (which Dani is likely more concerned about than you should be in micro game). Having said that, there are players that will go crazy when you check and then it becomes important to check back TP. It gets back to the balance thing. If you only check back 2nd pair then you can just get value-towned by any TP.

So, yes, yes this is a fine spot to check back something like a weak A as well. A weak A and J are similar in value. So if you can check back KJ, maybe check back A2 as well. You also want to make sure you bet some Ax, particularly the good ones like AK/AQ, because you will still bluff this flop a decent frequency.

I go to propokertools pql runner

Enter something like this:

select histogram(handtype(hero,flop))
from game='holdem'
, syntax='generic'
, hero='**'

And boom. Now that's just for any random 2 cards, to use a range, replace the stars with a range (here in ppt 'generic' format, but 'classic' is also supported. Look at the examples to get the hang of how it works, but if you've ever used a relational database it's pretty obvious.

Thanks for the input :-)

I played with this tool, but it was for me impossible, to get a probability for gutshots. I could do flushes, straits, pairs, .. .

So I am still wondering, how I can figure out stuff like probabilities for toppairs or gutshots.

Thanks for the input :-)

I played with this tool, but it was for me impossible, to get a probability for gutshots. I could do flushes, straits, pairs, .. .

So I am still wondering, how I can figure out stuff like probabilities for toppairs or gutshots.

The easiest way I know of is probably Flopzilla. It's not free, but it's pretty cool. It will calculate the probability of flopping any time of hand given a certain hand.

I think I mislead you a little. I was wondering how checking back a gutshot instead of c-betting helps our range. I was thinking that if we check back a gutter we are folding the turn if villain leads and if villain sees us fold the turn when he leads, hence we can induce bluffs with our Middle pair because villain sees us check back and give up sometimes. BUT you like to raise the gutshot on the turn when villain leads and that's cool....

-Thanks for the Ax checkback advice.

Well it's certainly not calling for value, per say, as you're needing 10:1 on a call for gutshot, but it's nice to check back and float with something instead of a complete airball. You're right that this means we can induce some bluffs, which is good when we have second pair, and we can rebluff when we hold the gutshot. If we just only check back 2nd pair we just always have 2nd pair.

Right, it's a good idea particularly if we are going to induce bluffs (which Dani is likely more concerned about than you should be in micro game). Having said that, there are players that will go crazy when you check and then it becomes important to check back TP. It gets back to the balance thing. If you only check back 2nd pair then you can just get value-towned by any TP.

So, yes, yes this is a fine spot to check back something like a weak A as well. A weak A and J are similar in value. So if you can check back KJ, maybe check back A2 as well. You also want to make sure you bet some Ax, particularly the good ones like AK/AQ, because you will still bluff this flop a decent frequency.

I think I mislead you a little. I was wondering how checking back a gutshot instead of c-betting helps our range. I was thinking that if we check back a gutter we are folding the turn if villain leads and if villain sees us fold the turn when he leads, hence we can induce bluffs with our Middle pair because villain sees us check back and give up sometimes. BUT you like to raise the gutshot on the turn when villain leads and that's cool....

-Thanks for the Ax checkback advice.

Nah, I'd rather float than raise. That balances our range better and when we raise we don't really rep any value. If I think the villain is never bluffing, I just fold. But if that's the case then I can save a bluff when they weren't going to fold, and then I can just delayed c-bet with a high success percentage.

Thanks for the input :-)

I played with this tool, but it was for me impossible, to get a probability for gutshots. I could do flushes, straits, pairs, .. .

So I am still wondering, how I can figure out stuff like probabilities for toppairs or gutshots.

It's horrible for me to do the whole query for you right now because I'm on my phone and my fingers are freezing. The selector you need is outstohandtype(hero, flop, straight) = 4

Here you go this should get you started

Select count(outstohandtype(hero, flop, straight) = 4) as haz_gutshot
From game ='holdem', syntax='generic', hero='**'

If you want to do "at least a gutshot" you need minoutstohandtype in stead.

I'm warming up now, so here's a more sophisticated example. Sorry for the derail if others aren't interested. Say you raise any pair, any broadway, any suited ace and the flop is unpaired rainbow, 9 high. How often do you have a pair or better or a gutshot or better?

PQL Query:
Select count(minoutstohandtype(hero, flop, straight,4) or minhandtype(hero, flop, pair)) as haz_pear_or_sd
From game ='holdem', syntax='generic', hero='{[A-T][A-T]},22+,(A[9-2])x', board='{9[8-2][8-2]}yz'
Results:
Trials HAZ_PEAR_OR_SD
600000 248688 (41.45%)

Here you go this should get you started

Select count(outstohandtype(hero, flop, straight) = 4) as haz_gutshot
From game ='holdem', syntax='generic', hero='**'

If you want to do "at least a gutshot" you need minoutstohandtype in stead.

Thank you so much for all the information. It helped me a lot to get an idea of this webside.

Time Link to 00:55:22

Hi Threads! Nice vid as usual!

The QTs hand is a very interesting spot. But, what would be your calling range here? Any suited broadway? Do you still call with SCs?

And, how would you play TT/JJ type of hand his this exact same spot? Considering we will play oop, will have a lot of overs OTF and or OTT and we won't have a lot of bluffing opportunities with these hands, guess these are still a fold, unless we are deep enough to set mine.

So, in the end, we will be flatting 3 bets oop with something close to half our opening range?

Hi Threads! Nice vid as usual!

The QTs hand is a very interesting spot. But, what would be your calling range here? Any suited broadway? Do you still call with SCs?

And, how would you play TT/JJ type of hand his this exact same spot? Considering we will play oop, will have a lot of overs OTF and or OTT and we won't have a lot of bluffing opportunities with these hands, guess these are still a fold, unless we are deep enough to set mine.

So, in the end, we will be flatting 3 bets oop with something close to half our opening range?

Probably something like most suited broadways. Good Axs. I wouldn't bother with medium SCs. I think not even flopping TP hurts too much.

I wouldn't fold JJ/TT, but call QTs. If you compare QTs and JJ/TT in this spot, JJ/TT are definitely better hands in this spot. We do hit sets from time to time, and our opponent won't get to value-town us that hard as we'll make some folds. We also often flop the best hand and get it to showdown for one bet. That's fine with us. Most players won't have a high enough bluffing % of the turn that we need to be getting value-towned on the turn and river - so we should just fold to multiple barrels. With QJs, we don't flop the best hand as often simply because we aren't starting with a high pair. Sure, we hit some draws that allow us to run some bluffs and maybe value bet some big hands, but I think the set/showdown value of JJ/TT outweighs that.

I'd also flat with AK/AQ as a standard, and AA/KK from time to time to protect my range (maybe most of the time given the read of "he's bluffing a lot"). With those sort of strategy it becomes a defeat for him to try to get really aggro on A/K/Q-high boards. We have too many hands that continue on the flop and turn. Most opponents won't really bother trying in this situations, though.