jaimestaples
1434 posts
Joined 08/2010
Time Link to 00:33:27
You pretty much summed it up. I would guess if your assumtions are correct that he is a weaker oponent he could have Ax/Kx high club draws that are to scared to get it in based on money as well as random 5's and 4's depending on how bad he is but against a half decent player your thinking makes a lot of sense to me.
Posted almost 2 years ago
Reply to Topic
Reply w/Quote
jaimestaples
1434 posts
Joined 08/2010
jaimestaples
1434 posts
Joined 08/2010
Time Link to 00:45:57
Does that 3 percent have to be the topest of his range?
I feel like with some people that 3 percent could represent a completly different range like JT, QT, 98 etc. etc. etc. Im sure you know some stuff about this guy but just playing devils advocate in regards to other Villains. Oh and im not saying that what he did was good either lol. Everything you say in my mind is the nuts. Love the vid so far
Posted almost 2 years ago
Reply to Topic
Reply w/Quote
weeee7
28 posts
Joined 12/2008
SNGgrind15
17 posts
Joined 10/2010
YugiohPro
442 posts
Joined 02/2009
Does that 3 percent have to be the topest of his range?
I feel like with some people that 3 percent could represent a completly different range like JT, QT, 98 etc. etc. etc. Im sure you know some stuff about this guy but just playing devils advocate in regards to other Villains. Oh and im not saying that what he did was good either lol. Everything you say in my mind is the nuts. Love the vid so far
I use BluffDataBase instead of OPR. I think it's more reliable and I like the table HH copy and paste feature. You can paste a HH from any table and it'll get stats from the last year for every player. I tend to look at past year stats but if someone is playing well, I look at their entire career stats. Sometimes HS regulars will have losing stats for a year but be up hundreds of thousands in their career.
The 3% doesn't have to be the toppest of their range (as evident by that player). But it's generally pretty weird for a player to limp the exact middle of their range like that player was doing. He was just clearly a level 1 (what are my cards) type thinker.
Posted almost 2 years ago
Reply to Topic
Reply w/Quote
YugiohPro
442 posts
Joined 02/2009
How the hell do you snap fold that Q6o there. As the shortest stack at the table by far surely this is a snap call against what is sure to be a 100% shoving range?
With those pot odds this is such a massively + cEV spot that Im pretty sure no excuses can help you... 
Hey SNG, thanks for the comment. I'm not sure if you're trolling since you seem to like asking overly hostile questions to other DC instructors. In case you're serious, I'll give a legit response.
It's somewhat possible I could have messed this spot up. It's hard to calculate these things in game. However, just some things to consider if you do actually think this is a snap call.
1) I have roughly 42% pot odds. Q5o has about 50.5% equity versus *any two cards* from the SB. Against an 80% range, just folding the worst of the trash, it has 46.9% equity. Against a 60% range, I'm actually doing worse than my pot odds are giving me. Kill Everyone talks about Bubble Factors. I'm sure mine is at least significant here so calling off with even 46% is probably bad.
I can't assume he is shoving 100%. He is a good player but he also saw me shove K8o bvb and I clearly know my push/fold. To suggest this is anywhere near a snapcall, especially within the speed of the game itself, is absurd.
2) I worked out the Nash ranges for this spot given the tournament payouts. He should be shoving 82% and I should be calling Q6o+. My actual range there would have been somewhat close, probably something like Q7s and Q9o with any A/K making the cut.
http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/icmcalculator.html?action=calculate&bb=16000&sb=8000&ante=2000&structure=.369%2C+.229%2C+.170%2C+.133%2C+.1&s1=594177&s2=481777&s3=417474&s4=369200&s5=127872&s6=&s7=&s8=&s9=
Posted almost 2 years ago
Reply to Topic
Reply w/Quote
SNGgrind15
17 posts
Joined 10/2010
Yeah Im sorry about that. I certainly didnt mean to appear hostile, in fact I though this video series was one of the best MTT ones I have ever seen.
What you are saying about this hand may or may not be right in terms of his jamming range. I seriously doubt he's only jamming 82% here, but obviously the call will be fairly marginally + EV either way. The big reason I think a call here is mandatory however, is what happens when you fold.
Unless you get a lucky combination of a hand you can jam and it folding around to you. Or a big hand within the next 2-3 hands, you will be in a - EV situation anyway. A decent chunk of the time you will either have to make a - EV jam UTG or UTG+1 or wait til the big blind, which is obviously a bad spot for you.
This is why I prefer taking that "gamble" in order to get to a stack with a lot more flexibility in the future.
Anyway keep up the great videos, and I will do my best not to appear like a troll in the future.
Posted almost 2 years ago
Reply to Topic
Reply w/Quote
Psycheout
22 posts
Joined 06/2011
nemmad
117 posts
Joined 07/2009
YugiohPro
442 posts
Joined 02/2009
Pure17
151 posts
Joined 01/2008
Interested to know why you think bluffdatabase is more reliable? I look at my stats on there & they give an incorrect impression of me as a player, whereas OPR gives a more accurate reflection.
Posted over 1 year ago
Reply to Topic
Reply w/Quote
ChipsFool
57 posts
Joined 06/2011
Time Link to 00:57:21
His line with the AQ is unorthodox, but I have seen many people spaz out against the ch/c, donk / call turn line so don't hate the play, but I think it is very player dependant, against you who reads it as a strong hand protecting then when you raise your range obv has top top crushed but against some villains, probably those overly aggressive then they may spaz out on the turn. Thoughts on this?
What do you think of his play pre flop against a villain like you?
Posted over 1 year ago
Reply to Topic
Reply w/Quote
YugiohPro
442 posts
Joined 02/2009
My main thought on the spot (same as when the video was made) is if he was going to b/c the turn, he'd be a lot better off check/evaluating. Bet/calling makes all of the air in my range fold and there's not much I can spazz with. I'm not floating like bare clubs there to jam turn. I think any decent hand-reader should be able to see his bet as some form of attempt to get to showdown (since that's basically what it is).
It has merit if his opponent is bad enough to shove something like QK on the turn or shove air. But this is a $162 final table we should all expect people to play pretty tight/straightforward.
His play preflop is very standard unless there is a dynamic (don't think one was present) where you can call a 4b with AQ for value or your opponent defends to 3b's very light. Don't think he'd expect me to defend too light from those positions so I like his flat.
Posted over 1 year ago
Reply to Topic
Reply w/Quote