Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by Nolan (Mid Stakes)

the AQ hand @min20: I would def. valuebet the river because villain's range is weighted towards bluffcatchers after he checked back the flop and called the turn. without a good read we shouldn't expect villain to turn a bluffcatcher into a bluff because he won't fold out many better hands. a Ten or maybe a QxK type hand is much more likely and will call much more freq. than betting.

and those small3bet OOP really suck as nolan mentioned also. giving villain great implied odds while playing OOP with weak hands is sucidal imo... or well having the balls to 3 barrel most boards vs villain's weaker range than normal is pretty sweet but we have to have a clean, tight image to have sucess with it

Time Link to 00:04:31

interesting thought on this AKo hand. If hero is right in not shoving AK because he believes he'll get hero called by sobrao's heavily weighted 88-JJ range, then shouldn't we also be shoving TT-JJ for value and trying to get hero called by 88-99? This hand isn't the greatest example but I've been tinkering with merging my river shoving ranges in 3bet pots at FR against players that do some basic hand reading. I've found that my somewhat aggro image earns me more hero calls, and that I can often shove a hand that is effectively 2nd pair for value when I think that villain's range rarely contains combos of TP type hands and he's often called 4th street assuming that I'm two barrel bluffing.

just a thought.

Time Link to 00:28:12

The math works out like this to me:

Risk (our call): 263
Reward: 545
Odds = risk/(risk+reward) = 263/808 = 32.5%

Against AKo,JTo,99 we have 30-31% equity, (AKo is 31.8% which results in EV of $256.94), really close but negative EV.
Against AQo, we have 22.7%. We're only ahead of air. How much air does villain have in his range here?