Branch10
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Time Link to 00:04:43
88 hand on table 2 - Could you explain why you prefer 3-betting to calling? I think 88 is definitely strong enough hand to flat and it plays better in single raised pot, basically now when you're 3-betting stuff like 88 it's really hard for you to have strong hands on let's say Q98s flop so it's quite easy to play against you. 3-betting something like 55 I think is much better because it's not really strong enough to flat OOP.
Posted almost 2 years ago
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mnml
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scott405
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Ass Get to Jigglin
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BalugaWhale
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88 hand on table 2 - Could you explain why you prefer 3-betting to calling? I think 88 is definitely strong enough hand to flat and it plays better in single raised pot, basically now when you're 3-betting stuff like 88 it's really hard for you to have strong hands on let's say Q98s flop so it's quite easy to play against you. 3-betting something like 55 I think is much better because it's not really strong enough to flat OOP.
1) 88 is much closer to 66 than TT in terms of equity vs a range
2) its plenty easy for me to have strong hands on Q98s flops, esp since i'm likely to be flatting AQ vs a lot of opponents.
Andrew
Posted almost 2 years ago
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BalugaWhale
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Why are we betting the 99 hand on the turn in the lower down table? I dont really think he will call with worse hands or that he will fold better hands. The most time he has some Ax Kx Qx type hand I think. Are we just betting to get him to fold his equity share?
yeah, and maybe a smidge of thin value. the guy was a fish, I think he never has a better hand than us, he never bluffs us later, i think 14 was probably too big though. 10 seems better, maybe even like 8.
Andrew
Posted almost 2 years ago
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BalugaWhale
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MunEZ
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everyone just skipped over my post....im a paying member why cant i get the video to play clearly?????
scott405, there's a link on the right, below the video, you can download it and try to open from your PC. There could be an issue with your flash player that prevents you from watching directly in the browser.
Posted almost 2 years ago
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Stu_Ungar
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Ass Get to Jigglin
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Ass Get to Jigglin
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equity is way too good to fold, but we're going to have to get lucky a lot of the time.
Andrew
do you think most opponents raise KQ there? if they do, we have ~40% if he 3bets or folds ATo some % of the time. So if they are raising KQ, would you just ship it in or call and fold river if you don't boat up?
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BalugaWhale
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i think there's prob some % of time they raise KQ, some % of the time they flatted JJ/77 on the flop to raise the turn, and some small % they're bluffing, but in general I think they're never folding on the turn once they raise so I'd ship for value.
we have better than 40% with KK i would guess. well now i'm interested, so I'm stoving
yeah, so vs a range of ATs, T9s, ATo, KQs (to limit combos), 77 and JJ we have 42%. So yeah, you add the random bluff, a few more combos of KQo, and it becomes a snap ship and hope we get lucky.
Andrew
Posted almost 2 years ago
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cpau33
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yeah, and maybe a smidge of thin value. the guy was a fish, I think he never has a better hand than us, he never bluffs us later, i think 14 was probably too big though. 10 seems better, maybe even like 8.
Andrew
I guess he would have 2barel all his top pair on the turn so when he checks, we know we are ahead so betting small for thin value/protection is the best play. Also, we probably have a free showdown on the river.
Posted almost 2 years ago
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cpau33
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cpau33
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Time Link to 00:06:16
T8s - table 1
Why do you like 3betting this ? I mean, we are oop so is it better to 3bet polarized or depolarized vs vilain (which seems TAGish) at these limit (100NL and lower) when we think that he calls with a lot of broadway IP ?
And when we 3bet as a bluff with T8s, you said that giving up is ok but I dont really understand. I think that the only Qx in his range here are AQ and KQ and maybe QJs..I dont really think that he is calling with QJ, QT or worse Q. So if we cbet and 2barel on any card, we have good chance to make him fold all but KQ AQ, which are a small part of his range. All PPs, AJ, KJ, ATs, AK are folding.
Where am I wrong in this thought process ? thx
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BalugaWhale
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T8s - table 1
Why do you like 3betting this ? I mean, we are oop so is it better to 3bet polarized or depolarized vs vilain (which seems TAGish) at these limit (100NL and lower) when we think that he calls with a lot of broadway IP ?
And when we 3bet as a bluff with T8s, you said that giving up is ok but I dont really understand. I think that the only Qx in his range here are AQ and KQ and maybe QJs..I dont really think that he is calling with QJ, QT or worse Q. So if we cbet and 2barel on any card, we have good chance to make him fold all but KQ AQ, which are a small part of his range. All PPs, AJ, KJ, ATs, AK are folding.
Where am I wrong in this thought process ? thx
A) AQ/KQ/QJ are a larger part of his range than you're giving him credit, and B) i dont think he's folding many JJ/TT to me (but thats just cause im a crazy person).
the basic idea is, if your opponent is waiting all day for a strong hand, and then they call, they probably have a strong hand, so its probably best to not try to move them off it.
if the board was, say, 743, we might have something worth barreling.
Andrew
Posted almost 2 years ago
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BalugaWhale
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I3betyoutillyoudie
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This isn't terribly relevant but how much $ did she start with in season one? and how many bi are you guys using to move up with and move down how many to make the game your regular e.c.t
Loving the series so far.
Posted almost 2 years ago
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I3betyoutillyoudie
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cpau33
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A) AQ/KQ/QJ are a larger part of his range than you're giving him credit, and B) i dont think he's folding many JJ/TT to me (but thats just cause im a crazy person).
the basic idea is, if your opponent is waiting all day for a strong hand, and then they call, they probably have a strong hand, so its probably best to not try to move them off it.
if the board was, say, 743, we might have something worth barreling.
Andrew
1) On the Qhigh flop: Against you, I can agree
But at 100NL and lower, I dont think regs are calling flop and turn on a Qxxx board with JJ-TT.
AQ, KQ, QJ = 36 combos
AJ, KJ, ATs, JJ, TT, 99 = 50 combos
If we assume that vilain fold JJ-TT on the turn and Air on flop and/or turn blank, I think cbet and barel turn would be profitable. Only cbetting the flop is bad because he will call with more than 66% of these combo but barreling the turn on a blank seems good imo.
I understand your point on opponents waiting all day long for his hand but if vilain is a reg, I guess he isnt waiting for premiums to call. Him calling with broadways and some mid PPs can allow us to make profitable barel..
2)I would have thought that 743 was bad to cbet and barel because vilain isnt likely to fold an overpair to the board on the flop and turn. You dont think that when vilain calls a bet on that type of flop, he is more likely to have an overpair than 2over cards ? so barelling turn would be bad because he only has PPs in his range that he isnt folding (and maybe some AQ, AJ that had float the flop).
3)And what about the preflop thought oop vs a reg (who call with broadways) ? Im just not sure if we should polarised or depolarized. Problem with depolarized vs reg is that we can be dominated so I guess we should polarized oop vs reg, right ?
sry for all question and thx for answers, appreciate it.
Posted almost 2 years ago
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cpau33
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i think there's prob some % of time they raise KQ, some % of the time they flatted JJ/77 on the flop to raise the turn, and some small % they're bluffing, but in general I think they're never folding on the turn once they raise so I'd ship for value.
we have better than 40% with KK i would guess. well now i'm interested, so I'm stoving
yeah, so vs a range of ATs, T9s, ATo, KQs (to limit combos), 77 and JJ we have 42%. So yeah, you add the random bluff, a few more combos of KQo, and it becomes a snap ship and hope we get lucky.
Andrew
I guess its a clear fold with 77. I made a stove and we have 25% equity. With JJ, we have 37%.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
3,300 games 0.001 secs 3,300,000 games/sec
Board: 7h Qc Jc Ks
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.000% 37.00% 00.00% 1221 0.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 63.000% 63.00% 00.00% 2079 0.00 { 77, ATs, KQs, T9s, ATo }
enough to ship it too ?
Just for fun, I stove KQ and Kristy was like 10% equity vs vilain's range (and I gave vilain KQs too)
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Ass Get to Jigglin
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I guess its a clear fold with 77. I made a stove and we have 25% equity. With JJ, we have 37%.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
3,300 games 0.001 secs 3,300,000 games/sec
Board: 7h Qc Jc Ks
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.000% 37.00% 00.00% 1221 0.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 63.000% 63.00% 00.00% 2079 0.00 { 77, ATs, KQs, T9s, ATo }
enough to ship it too ?
Just for fun, I stove KQ and Kristy was like 10% equity vs vilain's range (and I gave vilain KQs too)
a) AT of clubs and T9 of clubs need to be discounted because people almost always just raise and try to get it in w/ huge combo draws on the flop.
b) you're discounting KQ too much by including only the suited combos. There's a lot more off suit combos than suited combos, especially when the K and the Q on board are different suits.
c) not every reg is calling with all the combos of ATo preflop. Some 3bet or fold that hand.
Posted almost 2 years ago
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cpau33
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BalugaWhale
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What do you think about the iso baluga with K5s i wouldn't personally do it and i wouldn't cbet here into two people because i don't think we get two people to fold all that often on an A95 board. If called what would be your plan for later streets..
ty
whole thing looks pretty good, i'd probably give up vs most people on the turn.
Andrew
Posted almost 2 years ago
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zantonsus
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soleztis
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Time Link to 00:07:25
With a hand like K8 suited you advocate possibly calling because we start getting close to no better hands folding. I think I still like a 3bet.
Say we are up against a guy that opens 40% of buttons and he is going to call or 4bet mid PPs+ and suited or strong broadways combined with some bluffs and other calls.
Against the roughly 30% range that he will fold (obviously ranges will vary here) we are still flipping, so when you combine being able to collect that money now with having to play a marginal hand OOP vs an undefined range, can't an argument still be made that a 3bet might be better with this type of hand?
Thank in advance for the answer. Loving the series so far and I think this discussion is fantastic for micro stakes players that don't know how to play against regs.
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soleztis
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soleztis
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gondor
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Time Link to 00:51:24
But AQs you just 4bet/fold right?
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
54,793,728 games 0.148 secs 370,227,891 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.361% 25.46% 03.90% 13952300 2135723.50 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 70.639% 66.74% 03.90% 36569981 2135723.50 { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }
Posted almost 2 years ago
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UknowMe
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kozak88
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mystake
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Time Link to 00:13:45
I have some questions about the AKo hand:
First of all, do you really expect villain to call JTs,QTs kind of hand here oop vs a MP raise? I usually put most reasonable opponents on something like, AQ,AJ,KQ, 22-TT(JJ), without further reads. Thoughts on that?
Secondly, if we go for the bet/c line on the flop, what is our plan for future streets?
Call all xh turncards, and call any xh rivercard? And on blank rivers fold if he bets, bet if checks to us?
And on Ax/Kx call down?
Posted over 1 year ago
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BalugaWhale
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I have some questions about the AKo hand:
First of all, do you really expect villain to call JTs,QTs kind of hand here oop vs a MP raise? I usually put most reasonable opponents on something like, AQ,AJ,KQ, 22-TT(JJ), without further reads. Thoughts on that?
Secondly, if we go for the bet/c line on the flop, what is our plan for future streets?
Call all xh turncards, and call any xh rivercard? And on blank rivers fold if he bets, bet if checks to us?
And on Ax/Kx call down?
1) vs most ssnl villains, yes.
2) depends on how aggressive he is. the more aggro, the more we dont fold. the less aggro, the more we fold.
Andrew
Posted over 1 year ago
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Sillygoose87
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Time Link to 00:08:55
I wanted to maybe get into the issue of leveling for a second. On the T8 hand on the top left: if we are starting to see more and more good players who will be better at reading our hands should we be more inclined (if only slightly) to bet broadway cards? I feel this may be the case because we are 3-betting oop which means villain will think this means we are 3-betting polarized range (i think). This means our perceived broadway range will crush his when we get to showdown and villain will be less likely to call light. Further, when we check/check/fold the bottom end of our polarized 3-bet range we make it very easy for villain as he knows he'll never be bluffed when broadway hits. This could be problematic for our meta considerations
I have the bad tendency to level myself and think my opponent will think my 3-bet range will contain a lot of broadway cards when they don't and that could be what I'm doing here. I just think that if villain is a good level 2 thinker and our perceived nuts:air ratio is balanced for polarized 3-betting then villain will be less inclined to call light and may fold things as strong as TPWK (although I doubt he shows up with weak kickers often here).
Again, I very well could be very far off and could easily be convinced I'm wrong (and the queen already being on the board certainly hurts my argument) but to me, the K hitting that board could very well be a great card to bluff at least some of the time if for nothing more than balance.
Posted over 1 year ago
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BalugaWhale
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A) doing things for "nothing more than balance" is bad
B) the biggest problem is the fact that they hit the board, not whether we can represent hitting the board. When you play a lot of cards, you can represent hitting just about any board, but our opponents will tend to try to hit the board and hope we barrel into them.
C) In the event that our villains start calling lightly then we add broadways and start c-betting high boards.
Andrew
Posted over 1 year ago
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Sillygoose87
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Time Link to 00:44:22
A) doing things for "nothing more than balance" is bad
B) the biggest problem is the fact that they hit the board, not whether we can represent hitting the board. When you play a lot of cards, you can represent hitting just about any board, but our opponents will tend to try to hit the board and hope we barrel into them.
C) In the event that our villains start calling lightly then we add broadways and start c-betting high boards.
Andrew
Baluga,
I only got to watch 1/2 of the video last night and you said at this timestamp is exactly what I was trying to say last night only 20 times better.
To be clear, I didn't mean that we should be betting for balance purposes alone. I just thought that against a really tough opponent it should be a strong consideration. My mistake was assuming there were enough really strong opponents at $.5/$1 to make this type of play worthwhile where we really don't start seeing them with regularity until higher stakes.
Thanks again for your comments. As always you have been super helpful in my understanding the concepts.
Posted over 1 year ago
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