Bellatrix moves from cash games to tournament theory with a chapter on All-In and coin-flips. Homework for this week can be found here.
Bellatrix takes you on a journey through The Mathematics of Poker by Bill Chen and Jerrod Ankenman, breaking down each chapter one at at time. Warning - if you haven't figured it out by now, there will be math!
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FYI the sound really messed up at several stages of the vid.
Hmmm, I just listened over it. Weird. I think the USB connection to my headset must have been loose or something, because it sounds like it came and went when I shifted my laptop. I'll try to re-record this one when the series is over (so in 3-4 weeks). So sorry for the inconvenience.
Doing the homework, I found something real surprising, that I didn't realize reading the book.
The more players in a tournament (in effective size), the more you should be pushing small edges.
For example, if your "C" (measure of skill) is 0.52.
In a 4 men tourney, you would have 27% (0.52 squared) of winning (thus giving you a ROI of 4*.27 - 1 = 8%)
In a 1024 men tourney, you would have a 0.144% (0.52 to the 10th power) of winning (thus giving you a ROI of 1024 * 0.00144 - 1 = 47% ROI)
The consequence is that (supposing a constant ROI) you should never refuse a favorable coin-flip in a big size tournament, but could refuse it in a very small one.
This is kind of striking, and goes the opposite from what I would intuitively think.
Did I mess up somewhere ?