Bellatrix continues to work her way through the book, with Chapter 9: Adaptive Play and Distribution vs. Distribution. Homework for this week can be found here.
Bellatrix takes you on a journey through The Mathematics of Poker by Bill Chen and Jerrod Ankenman, breaking down each chapter one at at time. Warning - if you haven't figured it out by now, there will be math!
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Very profound. I dearly hope you stay the course and make all 30!
Thanks, I know I owe you one answer to one of your questions, please forgive me and I haven't forgotten. I will answer within the next two weeks (life is hectic atm as I'm moving across the ocean).
Possibly confused/misread the homework.
"At what point is it not profitable to jam 2-3x pot anymore?"
Even if we donk 3x pot, we're not all-in ($100 stack - $5 defend - $33 donk bet = $62 stack remaining).
Given that CO opens 25%, it's seems that it's always profitable to donk bet 2x or 3x pot. Opponent either folds too much and we take down the pot enough to outweigh our equity disadvantage against his tight calling range or opponent calls wide enough that we have an equity advantage against his wider calling range.
Am I missing something (e.g. assumptions about our/opponent's play on the turn)?
Using Combonator top 25% = 66+, A2s+, A8o+, K6s+, K9o+, Q8s+, QTo+, J8s+, JTo, T8s+ (259 combos given card removal)
EV of betting 2x pot, sets+ call = .977*11+(1-.977)*(.3475*55-22) = 10.6805875
EV of betting 2x pot, 2 pair+ call = .965*11+(1-.965)*(.3806*55-22) = 10.577655
EV of betting 2x pot, overpair+ call = .884*11+(1-.884)*(.4407*55-22) = 9.983666
EV of betting 2x pot, TP+ call = .699*11+(1-.699)*(.4898*55-22) = 9.175639
EV of betting 2x pot, AJ+ call = .378*11+(1-.378)*(.5343*55-22) = 8.752403
EV of betting 3x pot, sets+ call = .977*11+(1-.977)*(.3475*77-33) = 10.6034225
EV of betting 3x pot, 2 pair+ call = .965*11+(1-.965)*(.3806*77-33) = 10.485717
EV of betting 3x pot, overpair+ call = .884*11+(1-.884)*(.4407*77-33) = 9.8323324
EV of betting 3x pot, TP+ call = .699*11+(1-.699)*(.4898*77-33) = 9.1080946
EV of betting 3x pot, AJ+ call = .378*11+(1-.378)*(.5343*77-33) = 9.2217642