TecmoSuperBowl
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I don't know guys. calling pre to b/f this flop? Yeah, his range is gonna be strong, but we have put in so much money by now (especially with our flop sizing), that I think folding would be a huge mistake.
I haven't run the math, but I think his 3b, c/shove range on this flop is pretty much sets, overpairs, and maybe AK w/ the flush draw and straight draw. And I would heavily weight it towards JJ/TT in which case we're essentially drawing to 2 outs. Even with the $ we have invested by calling a 3b and betting the flop, we still don't have the odds to call needing something like 9:1 against sets. You add in the other hands and it obv gets closer, but I still think you'd find it's a fold.
Posted over 3 years ago
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TecmoSuperBowl
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TecmoSuperBowl
Tribe Leader
5590 posts
Joined 01/2009
Intentionally haven't seen the hand yet so may end up with egg on face but why would villain shove AA/KK here over shorty shove with us left to act? I totally see the logic behind the flat pre but shoving seem silly as he is now only really playing Vs hero (as nothing he can do about shorty) and would surely want to keep hero in the hand?
EDIT: - good no egg
I thought AK/AQ/QQ/JJ seemed more likely as it doesn't make too much sense with AA/KK to me. I wasn't suggesting that we should call btw just questioning the AA/KK logic.
I think KK is definitely in his range (as is AA but not my point here). People like slowplaying KK a bit until things get crazy and they realize they are going to be screwed if a A flops. Then they shove. Basically, people love getting tricky w/ big hands until some weird stuff goes down, then they just shove.
Posted over 3 years ago
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TecmoSuperBowl
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TecmoSuperBowl
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On the A5 hand, I am checking the villain's turn cbet and aggression stats, and I *might* float him here if he is very honest on the turn *simply* to get an 'implied' bet-sizing tell. I.e, if he is honest on the turn, and he barrels the turn, then we can assume that 7>11.40 is his 'value' bet size, which might allow us to exploit him later when he leads more like pot or 1/2 pot or whatever.
His turn 14>24 looks pretty much like 'value' too, so I am noting this as an observation, and looking for confirmation
Floating to get some sort of tell is fine if that is the reason you're doing it here. The problem is if you fold to his turn bet, you don't know if it was a 2barrel and he's really aggro or if it was for value. You have to get to showdown to get the real read and that means probably stacking off which I don't think is worth it just to get the read.
I much prefer focusing on his actions against other players and noting his hands at showdown w/out risking my money to get the read.
Posted over 3 years ago
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TheGeek
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TecmoSuperBowl
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thelynchmob1
1040 posts
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thelynchmob1
1040 posts
Joined 09/2009
Time Link to 00:24:07
Tuba, before I heard you talk about this hand I thought it would be a good idea to float here.
He cbets a LOT and it's a very dry Kxx board, so it's a good board to cbet, so wouldn't this make it a good board to float and see what he does on the turn?
What type of boards do you think it would be good to float this player on?
Posted over 3 years ago
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thelynchmob1
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TecmoSuperBowl
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Results oriented ftl, but did you hit one of your 13 outs on that last hand? You left it paused on the turn for so long, I was in suspense and never got to find out...
Sorry about that! That's just mean to leave you in suspense that long and not show you! The least I could do is tell you what happened.
Posted over 3 years ago
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DiggerTheDog
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z324739
Section 9
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spotDEspot
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I think KK is definitely in his range (as is AA but not my point here). People like slowplaying KK a bit until things get crazy and they realize they are going to be screwed if a A flops. Then they shove. Basically, people love getting tricky w/ big hands until some weird stuff goes down, then they just shove.
What do you think of this play if he had AA/KK?
Posted over 3 years ago
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Mendez
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Joined 02/2008
I'd be happy to do the Pokerrazoring for the last hand if you guys want to suggest some assumptions/ranges, mainly:
What is villain's range when he 3bets the flop?
What is he doing on the turn, and what do we do on a non-heart turn when he checks or bets?
Posted over 3 years ago
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