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Full Tilt Poker $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 434293
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MP2: $200.00
CO: $90.70
BTN: $269.05
Hero (SB): $200.00
BB: $200.00
UTG: $200.00
UTG+1: $35.00
UTG+2: $243.90
MP1: $115.60

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is SB with Q Q
UTG raises to $6, 6 folds, Hero calls $5, 1 fold

Flop: ($14.00) 9 9 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $9.00, Hero calls $9

Turn: ($32.00) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: ($32.00) A (2 players)
Hero bets $24.00, UTG raises to $70, Hero...

Villain running 12/9/3 over 500ish hands, mostly from 100NL. His EP range is pretty tight, but we're certainly ahead of it and 3betting seems like a great way to lose value vs the part of his range that we DO beat, yet still give money to better hands. We flat pre and the flop peel seems standard to me. Most villains are cbetting this board a majority of the time here, and we're still ahead of his cbetting range.
I turn gin and opt to check again, figuring villain will be more likely to continue to bet (both for value with his high pockets and as a bluff since the Q puts an OC to a lot of my peeling range and I'll fold my medium pockets now, supposedly). Villain checks back and I figure him for high cards or a pot-controlling KK/JJ.
On this river, I feel like we can go two ways. The first is to c/r the river. It lets us get at least one bet from AK, and probably two (if we raise small, I expect he'll groan and call). Also, if he has air for some reason (which I don't expect after he checks the decent barrel card) he'll bluff with it and we can win an extra bet that we wouldn't have gotten by betting. However, since I think air is unlikely, and I think he's gonna check back Ax some of the time, I opt to put out a healthy bet and get raised.
While I can certainly take this line with air, I feel like once we get to the river, my line has more strength than his (assuming he bets his strong hands on the turn, while I could well still be checking them) and I can certainly have 9x, 44, A9s, 99, (maybe) QQ, AQ etc. His range here is basically AA, 44 (not too likely, but possible) and AK/AQ (which seems bad as I'd expect villain to bluff-catch here). Should I really be this concerned, or should I just consider it a cooler if we're behind and ship it in? Thoughts/comments on all streets welcome.

I`m no expert or something but villain`s turn check is really weird to me. If he held overpair wouldn`t he bet turn again given that now there are two flush draws out there and it will be much harder for him to play river? After river action I think villain`s range is 44 (think unlikely he raises them UTG), 99, AA, KdQd and some hands turned into bluffs (imo not likely as you said they are more likely to bluff catch then raise). So taking this line there are 3 combos (2 combos of AA (discounted 1 combo because it doesn`t fit with turn check) and 1 combo of 99)that beats us and 2 combos we beat(1 combo of 44 (discounted 2 combos because villain is unlikely to paly them UTG) and 1 combo of KdQd) and if we ship everything that beats us calls, bluffs folds and KdQd might fold too to a shove. So I guess it`s just a call, but then again I`m no expert...

I don't ship this in ever vs this guy. What hands do you expect to call you if you ship this in?

If you ship it in here I think your only getting called by better.

I call this raise and think shipping is a massive spew. AA 44 and 99 have you crushed and I doubt AK, AQ are calling your bet 3-bet shove line on a paired flush board, when the obvious draw falls on the river.

If villain is bad you may get a call from a Flush if he raised a hand like KQs UTG but this is only if villain is real bad and you said he had a tight EP raise so I doubt a flush is in his range if hes as tight as you say.

I don't ship this in ever vs this guy. What hands do you expect to call you if you ship this in?

If you ship it in here I think your only getting called by better.

I call this raise and think shipping is a massive spew. AA 44 and 99 have you crushed and I doubt AK, AQ are calling your bet 3-bet shove line on a paired flush board, when the obvious draw falls on the river.

If villain is bad you may get a call from a Flush if he raised a hand like KQs UTG but this is only if villain is real bad and you said he had a tight EP raise so I doubt a flush is in his range if hes as tight as you say.

Mainly the nut flush and 44 (which we're not behind) (Or, some terrible AK/AQ) Also, I don't think that villain is checking back AA/99 here on the turn very often.

Mainly the nut flush and 44 (which we're not behind) (Or, some terrible AK/AQ) Also, I don't think that villain is checking back AA/99 here on the turn very often.

oops your right about 44, my bad, I missed that. I still think you are never getting called by hands that you are ahead of with the exception of a badly played 44 and I can see villain checking back AA a lot here If he's weak tight and he is afraid of you having 9x.

I can also see villain having a case of fancy play syndrome and checking back 99 here a well. I can see villain making the flush on the river and then raising you but theres a big difference in the hand ranges he's willing to raise on the river for value and the hands he's willing to call a shove on the river with after he's already raised you when the flush falls and the board is paired

oops your right about 44, my bad, I missed that. I still think you are never getting called by hands that you are ahead of with the exception of a badly played 44 and I can see villain checking back AA a lot here If he's weak tight and he is afraid of you having 9x.

I can also see villain having a case of fancy play syndrome and checking back 99 here a well. I can see villain making the flush on the river and then raising you but theres a big difference in the hand ranges he's willing to raise on the river for value and the hands he's willing to call a shove on the river with after he's already raised you when the flush falls and the board is paired

Yeah I definitely agree with this (especially the last part). I need to take a small break and clear my head, because after looking at this hand for some time, and putting it in context with the way I've been running, it's apparent that I was so thrilled to have a (what appeared to be) a super strong hand with a villain that was willing to put in money, that I didn't think of getting it in with the 3rd nuts as spew.

I can see villain checking back AA a lot here If he's weak tight and he is afraid of you having 9x.

Do you think this is always a bad line if you know you're never going to get 3 streets of value from a tight opp?

Do you think this is always a bad line if you know you're never going to get 3 streets of value from a tight opp?

I think it's a bad line when theres a possible flush draw on board. If I am only getting 2 streets of value I would rather get value on the flop and turn and then check the river behind if needed, then give away a free card on the turn because if villain is on a flush draw and the flush misses we get only 1 street of value instead of 2

there must be close to 1% chance he checks 44 on turn.

Because of villains description i totally agree that shoving will not get called by worse (often). If he is not spewy i doubt he calls a shove with a flush here. He could have 44 but i think he bets the turn with it to get money from you if you have a FD and i also dont think he raises this pf.
In my experience if a tight 100 or 200 NLFR player 3bets or c/r you on the river it is rarely a bluff.
That said during multitabling i would shove this hand very often and then be pissed about my decision.

Because of villains description i totally agree that shoving will not get called by worse (often). If he is not spewy i doubt he calls a shove with a flush here. He could have 44 but i think he bets the turn with it to get money from you if you have a FD and i also dont think he raises this pf.
In my experience if a tight 100 or 200 NLFR player 3bets or c/r you on the river it is rarely a bluff.
That said during multitabling i would shove this hand very often and then be pissed about my decision.

+1

If bet/3bet is too thin, then c/r fold river was the best option after all, right?

It looks like a cooler, but I guess you have to just call and pay that shit off...I don't know tbh. I'm never jamming though. I can see him raising with 44 here, but is that in his UTG PF raising range?