Beginner Limit Hold'em Poker Forums

BTN seems to be an aggressive player - he will have a decently wide range here PF OTB and seems to follow up with a pretty good amount of post flop aggression. SB is a fish.

I'd like to focus on the river - I think the turn play is pretty clear but am willing to discuss it if anyone wants.

I have done a Stove that I'll share later and I think it's pretty close - I'll be interested to hear what you guys think.

Poker Stars $2/$4 Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 429148
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is BB with A 5
3 folds, BTN raises, SB calls, Hero calls

Flop: (6 SB) 7 5 9 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets, SB calls, Hero calls

Turn: (4.5 BB) A (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, BTN calls, SB calls

River: (7.5 BB) Q (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, BTN raises, SB folds, Hero...

I like c/r'ing here because the board is so drawy, I'd like to misrepresent my range as much as possible

I do like the turn

I'd probably just call the river but, if he is pretty aggro then he can probably have Q5 Q7 Q9 so it's got to be close

Fwiw, I seriously dislike a flop c/r. I guess it's for value, but I doubt we're ahead of enough of our opponent's combined ranges to make that value more attractive than calling.

I don't see how river is anything but a call. I'd like to hear why it's close to anything else. I guess if he has every single Qx 2pair combo in his range, it might be close to a 3bet, but I doubt he will.

yeah let me clarify that I wouldn't c/r here, I was responding to JT who said he'd rather c/r on a rainbow board whereas I'd rather do on a two tone board

It's interesting that some people interpreted my post to be asking if we should b/f the river, and others interpreted it to be asking if we should b/3b the river.

Hands we lose to:
QQ - 3 combos
KJ through K8 - 4 combos total
JT through J8 - 3 combos total
T9 through T8 - 2 combos total
98 - 1 combo
13 total combos

Hands we beat:
Q9s (note it cannot be in ) - 2 combos ( and )
Q7s (again, not possible in ) - 3 combos (, , and )
Q9o - 7 combos (making sure to not double count suited combos)
12 combos

Plugging the above range into Stove gives us 48% equity.

I did not have to give him all rivered Qx two pair combos to make it close. If I can get Q7o in there (which I actually think he will have), then 3 betting starts looking even better.

I think it's easy to overestimate the number of hands he can have on this board (N.B., I'm assuming he pops Ax on the turn).

No AQ combos?

Also, I think your Kxs combo estimate is low. I think most people raise at least K4s, and a lot (fish like me) Kxs otb.

I think we're more likely to have 25-30% here than 50%, but obv doesn't matter since it's still a call.

I like a bet-call on the river. I dont think its worth a 3bet to push a 1 or 2 % edge and to make the decisions more complicated. There are enough hands that we beat but if we want to call a cap we need to beat 66%.

I can accept that, but realize that you're only adding 4 combos (K6, K4, K3, and K2). And when we expand the Kxs range I think we MUST include Q7o, which is 6 combos. So even if you are correct this factor kind of cancels itself out in my mind.

I don't think this is true at all, you can open K2s+ on the btn and still fold Q7o which is about 43%

even in stox's book he has K2s+ and only Q9o+ on the btn

Turn could be great. But there are also a lot of players that are silly second barellers that I would XR vs. The river looks like a call to me.

Agree with this for sure.