Beginner Limit Hold'em Poker Forums

PF has to be an iso-raise, but I messed up.

BTN is loose/bad.
BB seems pretty aggro - it IS 3 ways on the turn, but other than that everything indicates he will auto fire twice. His flop and turn cbet are both 100% over ~60 hands and his A% is high on the flop and turn, but plummets on the river.

Full Tilt Poker $2/$4 Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 428442
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is SB with 3 A
3 folds, BTN calls, Hero calls, BB raises, BTN calls, Hero calls

Flop: (6 SB) 4 3 6 (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, BTN calls, Hero calls

Turn: (4.5 BB) 7 (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, BTN folds, Hero calls

River: (6.5 BB) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks...

IMO you should bet the river. He shouldn't call with worse, but he will.

Rob

Wow, bet the river is awesome here, and I wouldn't have thought of it.

Is a b/f rob?

Wow, bet the river is awesome here, and I wouldn't have thought of it.

Is a b/f rob?

It is, though tbh you should pretty much never get raised here.

Rob

i would prefer to check and decide, probably checkfolding but maybe checkcalling. donking doesn't seem to target enough of his range to me to make it the best play. he will mostly just call his made hands that beat us, and fold his airball that might have barreled otherwise.

i think a flop c/r is also viable.

i would prefer to check and decide, probably checkfolding but maybe checkcalling. donking doesn't seem to target enough of his range to me to make it the best play. he will mostly just call his made hands that beat us, and fold his airball that might have barreled otherwise.

I think you're underrating how often he has Ax and will pay off with it vs how often he has QJo here.

Rob

ya, bet riv is good here. Only problem is that you never have 5x so if he thinks you are capable of b/f some 2 pair hand he can raise any 2 here as you probably are never super strong

Pretty unlikely that either happen at 2/4 (you folding 2 pair and him bluff raising) but just food for thought.

Its more of a blocking/valuebet and he may spite call with AK

It is, though tbh you should pretty much never get raised here.

Rob

I disagree with that. Thing is the straiht completed on the turn. Our hand looks weak when we donk, not strong. Therefore he may both make thin value-raises and bluffraises. Donkng this river has poor risk/reward ratio IMO.

I disagree with that. Thing is the straiht completed on the turn. Our hand looks weak when we donk, not strong. Therefore he may both make thin value-raises and bluffraises. Donkng this river has poor risk/reward ratio IMO.

Strongly disagree. First off, we're not concerned about thin valueraises with our hand. Secondly, this is a $2/4 game with an opponent who has been aggressive on earlier streets and passive on the river, which is SUPER common at lower stakes games, and not the sort of person who commonly turns Ace high into a bluff when bet into on the river.

You're just reading too much into what a good player *should* be capable of, but even then, the line you're taking here isn't that exploitable as you should probably be mixing up bet-calling, bet-folding, and bet-3betting rather than checking, as most good opponents will take a showdown with too much of their Kx range here.

All that said, we're here against a pretty aggro opponent who doesn't have super high river aggression, and it's unlikely that he knows a ton about us that would lead him to do anything nonstandard on the river. Don't overthink yourself here.

Rob

To be honest bet was NOT very prominent in my river thought process here, but I really think it'd be expert. I was thinking more about how I thought villain was polarized on the turn and therefore pretty much still is on the river. Nice analysis Rob.

Strongly disagree. First off, we're not concerned about thin valueraises with our hand. Secondly, this is a $2/4 game with an opponent who has been aggressive on earlier streets and passive on the river, which is SUPER common at lower stakes games, and not the sort of person who commonly turns Ace high into a bluff when bet into on the river.

I included the remark about thin value raises since u never said if ur line was BF or BC. I do understand that if we fold it doesn't matter.

Everyones AF drops on the river. However river AF stats after 60 hands means just about bananas.

He doesn't need to be a maniac to raise here. Our bet is a raise-teaser. In my experience players who starts bluffing say QJ will be in a bluffing mindset and not unlikely at all to pull the trigger on the river. Since we also may pick off a broad-way bluff if we check I don't see we gain enough by the river bet to be worth the risk.

At the end of the day it's a question how we interpret a "typical player" at 2/4 who is described as pyg did.

He doesn't need to be a maniac to raise here. Our bet is a raise-teaser. In my experience players who starts bluffing say QJ will be in a bluffing mindset and not unlikely at all to pull the trigger on the river. Since we also may pick off a broad-way bluff if we check I don't see we gain enough by the river bet to be worth the risk.

How many hands can you show me at similar limits w/similar reads where you've seen a river bluff raise on a board texture like this?

It's not a rhetorical question -- I can recount maybe a handful of times I've seen it and it's always been with an opponent who has been much more aggressive, up to this point, than this player.

This is one case where I think a lot of players have a huge leak: they're afraid to take a very exploitable line because of fear of the unknown and their ability to estimate how goofy players can be. It's my assertion -- and I'm pretty damned confident about it -- that based on my experience, I haven't seen it nearly often enough to really have the worry creep into my head much at all.

If you want to see a pretty great video w/spots similar to this, look at the I Has a Pear w/analysis by DeathDonkey and me going over SkillGambler's video submission. I know we covered this spot a lot and that was in a situation with MUCH tougher players on average than you'll see here. In those spots I thought it was marginal but interesting and it happened multiple times.

Sometimes in order to take the most exploitative line against a "player type" (someone we have a profile on but not perfect knowledge of), we have to be willing to take a risk to be exploited in return; in this case, I'm very comfortable with the tradeoff.

Rob