Fjelleif
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sammmm-e
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wireless
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BaseMetal
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Well I suppose with the straight push it all comes down to ranges. Assuming that only 1 player will call you can get a good estimate with PokerStove and a FE Calculator or even easier SnGWiz.
The CO is the big stack and so is quite likely to be wide, it depends on any reads or stats, but with the CO having an opening range of 30% (any pair most broadways) and a shove calling range of 5.5% (99+, AJs,AQ+) the shove is -39 chips worth. It recs TT+, AK,AQs+ if pushing. (I set the SB to reasonable ranges).
Overall, for push type strategy I would recommend Wiz.
In this particular case with good deep stacks I think the shove would not really be optimal, you may be able to eek out a profit from a stop-n-go line but I would suggest going for a set mine attempt. You have very deep stacks, the CO may not pay off that much but overall it is quite likely to be at least reasonable and if you get lucky you just might double up. Also, one of the advantages of the set mine is the relatively easy future play - usually you only drop 100 chips but when you hit you are in a great spot, not much risk for a great reward.
Posted about 1 year ago
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micsquab
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Fjelleif
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shuttle
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wireless
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Fjelleif
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BaseMetal
2050 posts
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It would really depend on the ranges you gave for the two opponents opening, flatting, and calling the allin.
SnGWiz will do a really good job of showing what chip equity you have in these circumstances. The only thing you can't vary is the exact order of hands that are given to the players but the built in ones will be pretty good I should think. As I said earlier with a 30% opening for the CO and a 5.5% calling range the result of a shove from the BB is -39 chips. I would use SnGWiz and put your own ranges in and you will get a good idea of how well the move does. In this case I suspect that the SB is quite tight and doesn't want to tangle with the big stack. This is also another good reason for a possible set mine as the tighter the ranges the more chance of stacking off when you hit.
Posted about 1 year ago
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Fjelleif
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wireless
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rrumsey
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If you feel good postflop, 3b/call otherwise setmine.
this makes no sense to me. If we feel good about postflop 3 betting and calling a shove is passing up on an edge we have postflop to stack off 34 bigs early pre antes with a very marginal hand that is rarely ahead at all against his 4 bet shove range. Thats pretty terrible imo
I'd be flatting
yah pretty easy flat imo. funny someone said shove 30+ bigs lol
3 betting wouldnt be the end of the world, but we dont have a blocker to a 4 bet hand or a flatting hand, we are OOP and then just praying we dont end up punting a ton of our stack if we then cbet. its so risky so early and doesn't have a ton of reward. we arent changing our plan too much if we have 30 or 40 BB, but if we have 18-20 hell yes we are limited
Posted about 1 year ago
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wireless
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We are printing money 3betting. There is 1/5th of our stack out there. Only reason I am saying feeling ok postflop is there are some flops we should probably give up and we may be flatted in 2 spots.
If we were facing same raise with btn flat while in the SB, I would prefer shove to flat. The reason I like flatting>shove in the OP hand is because our pot odds are very good.
It doesn't really matter if we have to call it off with bad equity later if the line is the best EV. Not saying is the best EV, its just my $0.02.
Posted about 1 year ago
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rrumsey
5404 posts
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shoving 34BB into an open and a flat with 7's just seems like a horrible option. we are so fucked if we ever get called, so mostly its as a bluff (seeing how we don't expect to get called much or by worse ever). So why do you feel inclined to bluff our stack with 7's?
Posted about 1 year ago
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