Pot Limit Omaha Poker Forums

Merge $10.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players - View hand 1744547
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SB: $6.65
BB: $21.93
UTG: $2.84
MP: $8.55
Hero (CO): $11.11
BTN: $16.60

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with 6 7 7 8
UTG calls $0.10, MP calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, 2 folds, BB checks

Flop: ($0.45) T 7 J (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP bets $0.45



All three villains above 60% VPIP w/ greater than 40 hand samples each. Villain who pots flop is a 62/15 who hasn't been actively aggressive yet. Should I try to get it in here? Just call? Seems like I have a lot of options, my equity vs 89xx is decent, but I've also noticed a lot of players just calling w/ naked nut straights here to a raise, then x/r'ing AI on safe turns. So am I right to be cautious about raising given that I'd only get in behind most of the time?

I would just fold here. Yes it's tough to fold a set, but if you aren't careful you have a ton of reverse implied odds. Also, his bet here screams straight which, on a brick turn, will be potting it again and you'll have to fold anyway. He also could have your FD dominated which is another reverse implied odds situation.

Okay. Well, I actually did fold but wasn't sure if I was being silly or what. I kept thinking, how am i going to respond to continued heavy betting if the board pairs T or J, or a flush comes? My NLHE guy in the back of my head was like, "wtf are You DOING!!@!@". I was like, "shut up, he has 4 cards." I folded because I figured, I don't wanna make a mistake later, maybe I need to study this spot more. Turns out my equity was fine there, but you're probably right; how do we play turns?

So, this is why you don't play hands like this for a raise preflop? Thoughts on that?

I probably fold this hand preflop. It looks a lot prettier than it actually is. The flushes aren't great and bottom set gets you in a tough spot (like here). If you do play this hand, I'd like to raise and play it HU which doesn't usually happen at these stakes because anyone who limped usually comes along anyway. Basically, you're not going to get in any easy situations with this hand unless you whiff the flop, hit quads, or flop a nut straight. The latter are not very likely and a whiff is wasted money.

As for turn play, it sucks lol. It just does. Only a 7 will make you feel great. If the turn is a spade you have to fold to a bet. If it's a brick you probably have to fold because he'll probably pot it again. A straight card and bet is another fold. There is no easy spot on the turn here.

Also, you say you're equity was fine there. Were you giving him a range or just vs. random hands? That makes a big difference.

I would call flop. Yes we have some danger in RIO but he's going to play straight forwardly on the turn so I don't see us getting in any tough spots. I think we have a little too much of everything to fold here. I would fold a bare 77 and obviously a bare 7 hi fd.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: JT7
8h7h7s6s 55.66% (327,064 wins, 13,788 ties)
98,JJ,TT,KQ:ss,AKQ, KQ9 44.34% (259,148 wins, 13,788 ties)


Even if he only has straights and sets we still have too much equity to fold.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
12,118,780 trials (Exhaustive)
board: JT7
8h7h7s6s 51.87% (6,087,464 wins, 397,611 ties)
98, JJ, TT 48.13% (5,633,705 wins, 397,611 ties)

Also, his bet here screams straight which, on a brick turn, will be potting it again and you'll have to fold anyway.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
562,280 trials (Exhaustive)
board: JT72
8h7h7s6s 35.31% (189,648 wins, 17,775 ties)
98, JJ, TT 64.69% (354,857 wins, 17,775 ties)

i entered my hand on this flop vs 89xx.... my equity was 57%. I just had a hard time figuring out what to do, because i figured if we got it in on the flop, I could be crushed more often than *slightly* ahead, and the turn...
So, you don't recommend getting into a limped pot w/ this CO/BTN?

I understand that we have a good amount of equity on the flop, but our implied odds if we do hit are pretty much zero and when we do call OTF and miss the turn we'll be facing a big bet. Plus if he has any spades our flush draw is dominated because if we assume he has 98, JJ, TT he'll probably have higher spades with them since we have the 7 and 6. That only leaves the 2, 3, 4, and 5 which probably aren't in his hand because of two out of his four likely holdings (ex. he's probably playing JxJx8s9s than JxJx2s5s). That's only six combos of FDs that we're beating and ten we're losing too. Against 8s9s** we only have ~30% and against Jx Jx Xs Xs with higher spades we only have ~10%. I just think that a good amount of the time here our hand is dominated.

Regardless of the flop decision this situation is why this hand is a pain in the ass to play lol.

The times we have RIO, ie we call turn is a spade, he's going to play straight forwardly: bet if he has a big flush and check otherwise. Same with if he has a straight and the board pairs. If the turn is a J/T and he bets, we can fold. This is how we realize our equity in this spot, by reacting to what he does on various turns.

The equity sim I post showed we can still call a blank turn.

Yeah, but it's really thin. I just wouldn't want to risk a good portion of my stack to maybe try to improve a hand that could be easily dominated.

You keep mentioning he'll play very straight forward. What if he has TT and checks a paired board because he doesn't have the nuts? What if he checks a 9 high flush? If we bet we could still be dominated. The only way you're evaluation works is if he folds a hand we beat or we get it all in against a better hand. There is no more money to be won from this pot. It's either lose more, or win the $0.90. That's according to your idea that villain will X/F hands like straights and sets on flush boards and X/F straights and flushes on paired boards. IMO, the risk/reward is not worth it.

Yeah, but it's really thin.

How is it thin when we have 55% equity and need 33% to call?

Edit: I just realized you were talking about the turn.

I just wouldn't want to risk a good portion of my stack to maybe try to improve a hand that could be easily dominated.

I don't really see how we are going to lose our stack. The equity simulation I showed shows all combinations of hands (including ones that dominate us) and we still have more than enough equity to call.

You keep mentioning he'll play very straight forward.What if he has TT and checks a paired board because he doesn't have the nuts? What if he checks a 9 high flush? If we bet we could still be dominated.

And you keep mentioning that we could be dominated. I don't think (and didn't say) we should be a flush on the turn, I just said that we realize our equity. I think we should still bet a turned boat because he can still c/c a straight or a draw given he is loose passive.

I could see an argument for c/f the flop if we were OOP because we're playing more of a guessing game, not going to realize our equity as much, not be able to vbet as thin if we improve, etc but I think IP vs weak opponents this is a really mandatory call.

I do agree that being IP helps a lot and that we could vbet a full house OTT and (IMO) fold to a X/R. Also, the equity OTF goes WAY down if he has our spades beat.

I didn't mean that we would lose our entire stack, I just meant a good portion of it if we call OTF, and possibly OTT.

So you're saying if we hit a flush we check back. What do we do OTR? What if he plans to X/C a 8/9 high flush? That's my problem with it.

Also, the equity OTF goes WAY down if he has our spades beat.

True but he isn't only betting with 98ss, JJss, etc. (most likely)

I think checking back turn/river if we hit a flush are very reasonable unless he's very very bad.

Yeah, but it's definitely not an impossibility, especially since he is passive.

Okay. Again though, we're not making any more money than what's in OTF.

Good discussion!

Firstly, I just wanna say, that if folding here to limps preflop is the best play, then I really need someone to explain why in a more detailed fashion. I'm starting to notice that rec players really don't fight over limped pots much (it's like it's too small of a pot for them to care or something), and I feel like I can flop a lot of little pieces of draws here with this hand, and thus can use this hand to take some pots down on flops and turns (occasionally rivers) vs these guys.

The only way you're evaluation works is if he folds a hand we beat or we get it all in against a better hand. There is no more money to be won from this pot. It's either lose more, or win the $0.90. That's according to your idea that villain will X/F hands like straights and sets on flush boards and X/F straights and flushes on paired boards. IMO, the risk/reward is not worth it.

To be fair, snarble5 never said anything about villian's x/f range, but he did say that villian would check non-brick turns w/ just a straight.

I could be convinced here to call and play turns, however, my knowledge of how recreational players are acting with various parts of their range is pretty bad, and that's why i ended up folding here. I'm pretty frequently surprised by how loosely they play both as the aggressor and once they've ceded initiative. If I were a much better player I could see how calling might be better than folding.

One other thing I do want to mention is that, w/ 35% equity vs. the range that you assign him on a brick-ish turn card, a turn call would be marginal at best against another large bet since we'll be very likely to face a bet on the river at that point. I think that's kinda along the lines of what LSGoCards7 is saying about a flop call.

Hence we can't just look at even a seemingly non-threatening 3:1 pot odds scenario on a brick turn and imagine that we have a clear call, given that his flop sizing pretty clearly defines how he plans to represent his strength already. Sometimes we'll hit the flush on the river, and our opponent will keep betting. Sometimes we'll boat up, and opponent will bet 2/3-pot or more. And very rarely, the river will brick, and our opponent will bet his wiffed wrap again, and we'll fold the best hand.

I'd just feel way more comfortable calling flop if I had a good read on the guy, or at least if I was really familiar with the part of the player population that his profile fits into (a 62/15 pure recreational player), as you two clearly seem to be. Anyway that's why I posted the hand, I just really didn't know what to do, but at least now I feel like the next time I'm in this spot I know what specific containers to fill as far as the information I might need to continue on to the turn. As played, I think this villain is sitting on a very strong part of his made-hand range, and until I've got at least a few more weeks' of exclusive PLO full-time grinding under my belt, I'll avoid calling here vs. such a large bet.

Really appreciate your input guys, and anything else you have to say here.

Nobody has really considered shipping which is my favourite way to play this hand.