Full Ring No Limit Poker Forums

This forum seems like it's hurting for HHs!

Here's a very simple spot I found myself in the other day:

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $290.89 (290.9 bb)
SB: $111.38 (111.4 bb)
BB: $198.49 (198.5 bb)
UTG+1: $103.50 (103.5 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): $152.22 (152.2 bb)
MP1: $139.20 (139.2 bb)
MP2: $95.80 (95.8 bb)
MP3: $113.63 (113.6 bb)
CO: $121.67 (121.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Ks Kc
UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, 2 folds, MP3 calls $2.50, CO raises to $12, 3 folds, Hero calls $9.50, MP3 folds

Flop: ($28) 5c 3d 6h (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($28) 7h (2 players)
Hero bets $16.20, CO raises to $42, Hero folds

Results: $60.40 pot ($2.72 rake)
Final Board: 5c 3d 6h 7h
Hero mucked Ks Kc and lost (-$28.20 net)
CO mucked and won $57.68 ($29.48 net)

Villain is 15/11 3% 3bet. I really doubt his range for 3betting me is much wider than AA and some sort of "bluff" hand which he's folding to a 4bet (AK? AQ?).

So, the question is on the turn does he have AhQh/AhKh often enough for it to be a jam? I folded quickly at the time because nits take weird lines with AA all the time, but upon reconsidering it's a line which really makes much more sense with a turned flush draw.

He probably views me as a bad$#% mother%$##@$, if that helps at all.

I think the 4 bet is good line here pre.

Against his likely range in this spot I think 4bet-calling is around -4.2bbs (-6.7bbs global). 4bet-folding might be breakeven or even winning if he's bluffing a little more often than we think he is. I think calling should show a decent profit though, so I'd rather just do that.

Against his likely range in this spot I think 4bet-calling is around -4.2bbs (-6.7bbs global). 4bet-folding might be breakeven or even winning if he's bluffing a little more often than we think he is. I think calling should show a decent profit though, so I'd rather just do that.

I'm a little confused by this....You're calling w/ KK to set mine?

April Fool's was two weeks ago.

Calling with KK to play postflop against a range of 6 AA, 1 KK, ~8 AK/AQ/A8s type hands.

Calling with KK to play postflop against a range of 6 AA, 1 KK, ~8 AK/AQ/A8s type hands.

Ok I think you are justified 4 betting this and calling all in if he 5bet shoves. QQ+AKs vs, KK you have 52% equity vs, this range. I don't think you should be assigning a nit AA range every time he 3bets you when you are UTG.

How many hands is this data over? It seems unreasonable to say that 3-betting must be AA.

Sample is 2.6k hands, villain 3bets 2.6%, 3bets vs EP <1%, has squeezed one time (this time) out of 167 opportunities. I'm already weighting his range somewhat wider than the sample suggests.

Very very unlikely he is 3betting to stack off with QQ or AK. I'd guess we can be something like 98% confident that 4betting to call is worse than folding, but maybe there's a 40% chance that 4bet-fold is slightly winning.

Also calling here is massively +EV so even if 4betting is somehow break-even it's still going to be giving away 4-5bbs in equity compared to the best play.

Not that I'd think of this at the table but I think check calling turn might be better

After seeing him raise turn and feeling like it's a fold check/calling seems better, but if we start with the assumption that he cbets AA otf we should just be winning the pot all the time and protecting ourselves from his 6% equity.

The more I think about this hand the more I think he is fos a lot on the turn.

We really don't need to protect vs 6% equity if he either bluffs river a non-zero amount or calls river lighter after we check turn.

True, seems like it's a good spot for a turn check in a vacuum, unless all of the times he raises turn he has a worse hand

Top 3% is roughly 40 hands. If he's going to fold to a 4 bet with all but AA and KK, then you're getting 12 in 40 or 2.3 to 1 on a 3-bet to take down the pot. Knowing that, you can start 4-bet bluffing with suited Aces and Kings. If you're risking less than 2.3x the current pot you should show an immediate profit.