14:20 - this bet is/might be really that bad against reg?
EV=167x* (1-x)(335,5 * 19% - 84) -> x = 20,255/(167+20,255)= 10FEQ
U need 10% fold equity to break even. Aaron, what is Your point in the match (seeing showdown, info from stats?) that this bet is -EV ?
ya you are right, I might have overstated it a bit. The good bet sizing also helps his risk/reward here. It does suck when we have to bet/fold though but I suppose that is better than check/folding and he probably can find a fold 1 in 10 times.
Good catch and good math.
0:27:25 -> on stats we see fold to 3bet= 70%. is it enough sample to do some adjustmens like
-having more polarizing 3b range
-sizing down our sizing to 9.5-9bb and go from there?
sorry for my english and best regards :]
Yes. I would usually prefer to make several more subtle adjustments before changing my bet size. I feel like when you change your bet size it becomes very obvious that you are adjusting and it might make him re-think his strategy.
I would start 3betting a little more and start using more Axo Kxo and trash hands (more polarized) before changing my bet sizes and incrementally go more and more 3betting. You want to be able to adjust without making it clear he needs to re-adjust.