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Poker Video: Limit Hold'Em by bellatrix (Micro/Small Stakes)

btw bella are all your video series going to be either 4 episodes or 30?

btw bella are all your video series going to be either 4 episodes or 30?

Heh, min-cash or 1st place!

Time Link to 00:46:00

I disagree with your assessment of this hand. I think you are getting a fold on this board pretty close to 0% of the time. I think taking the free card is the higher EV play by quite a bit. People are very very rarely folding any pair once the board pairs on the turn. Once in a while you may get a river fold if the river is a K, Q or J (when he is not holding one of these cards too), but we will usually have the best hand if the K or J hit. So, in my opinion, our turn bet may only be advantageous to us when exactly a Q hits on the river. Even then I think most people will still be calling.

Also, we aren't even considering the case where villain has trips or better in which case a turn bet will usually cost us another bet when we are c/r-ed.

Also, I think villain's check on the river is fine. He knows your range is usually busted flush draws so he is probably only ever getting any value if you paired the 5 on the river. So I think checking and trying to induce is fine. Either play probably is about equal. I think you are rarely inducing a bluff here and I think a bet is almost never called here either.

I disagree with your assessment of this hand. I think you are getting a fold on this board pretty close to 0% of the time. I think taking the free card is the higher EV play by quite a bit. People are very very rarely folding any pair once the board pairs on the turn. Once in a while you may get a river fold if the river is a K, Q or J (when he is not holding one of these cards too), but we will usually have the best hand if the K or J hit. So, in my opinion, our turn bet may only be advantageous to us when exactly a Q hits on the river. Even then I think most people will still be calling.

Also, we aren't even considering the case where villain has trips or better in which case a turn bet will usually cost us another bet when we are c/r-ed.

I don't want him to fold the turn, I want him to fold eventually (the river). I am keeping my range wide with enough equity by betting. Checking back narrows my range to FDs after I 3bet the flop. If you want to go by hand strength alone and that he won't fold a pair ever (even fearing we will get c/r by trips), then we shouldn't 3bet the flop as his range (any pair, any draw - remember to get rid of the premiums that he would've 3b pre) makes us a slight (45/55) dog. An Ace makes sense in my hand and he will have trouble calling down a pair all the way to the river and even then we have the flush draw as backup. If we get c/r on the turn - it's not the end of the world, we call with our FD equity and fold if we don't hit.

Also, I think villain's check on the river is fine. He knows your range is usually busted flush draws so he is probably only ever getting any value if you paired the 5 on the river. So I think checking and trying to induce is fine. Either play probably is about equal. I think you are rarely inducing a bluff here and I think a bet is almost never called here either.

Yep, I agree that it might have been too optimistic from my part, since he will only get calls from hands like ours. Part of what messed with my head is that I usually don't call with hands like J6o in the BB in these situations 3-handed. But yeah, valuebetting there is not profitable, as I said to grandmofftarkin.

> I don't want him to fold the turn, I want him to fold eventually (the river).

Ya, I was referring to the chances of him folding the river, not the turn. I think we are almost always called on the river once the A pairs on the turn.

Plugging this hand into the EV calculator, I found that we need him to fold a pair >15% of the time approximately for our turn bet to be better than taking a free card (assuming I plugged the hand correctly into the EV calculator). Can we get a fold from a pair on this board >15% of the time? Given the A pairing, I think it might be a bit optimistic, but it's certainly debatable.