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How do you know if they will fold? 50NL

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stl_jones

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352 posts
Joined 06/2011

I've played completely ABC for the 50k hands on this site up until this session. My redline sucked and I was slightly loosing after RB. I'm very frustrated right now because I feel like I'm losing because the other ABC regs aren't paying me off, and I don't run big bluffs so I'm not exploiting themL. So I tried running big bluffs when it's unlikely my regish opponent has a nutted hand, and I get hero called down.

After dumping 4 buyins, the thought keeps popping in my head "What the f*** did you expect to happen? LOL at bluffing the idiots at 50NL"

Most these regs I had 500+ hands on, and have never seen them make an hero calls/bluffs before. This is the first time I've felt tilted in a long time. Right now I feel like I will never run a big bluff again and just nut peddle, because I'm going to get called down with weak hands. Is that what I should be doing anyway? If not, how do you determine if someone will fold a medium strength hand when you have 0 bluffs in your range?


Hand #1

Hero (UTG): $76.78
MP: $28.23
CO: $52.66
BTN: $55.35
SB: $148.38
BB: $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with 8 Diamond A Diamond
Hero raises to $1.50, MP calls $1.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($5.25) 5 Heart 7 Spade 6 Diamond (3 players)
Hero bets $3.50, MP folds, BTN calls $3.50

Turn: ($12.25) 2 Heart (2 players)
Hero bets $8, BTN calls $8

River: ($28.25) 3 Spade (2 players)
Hero bets $14, BTN calls $14

Final Pot: $56.25
Hero shows 8 Diamond A Diamond (HIGH_CARD ACE)
BTN shows 9 Spade 9 Diamond (PAIR NINE)
BTN wins $53.44
(Rake: $2.81)

Hand #2
CO: $40.59
BTN: $95.50
SB: $117.67
Hero (BB): $73.13
UTG: $47.57

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with J Spade J Diamond
UTG raises to $2, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) Q Heart Q Spade 6 Club (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $2.25, Hero calls $2.25

Turn: ($8.75) K Club (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

River: ($17.75) 7 Spade (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $9, Hero raises to $64.38 all in, UTG calls $29.82 all in

Final Pot: $95.39
Hero shows J Spade J Diamond (TWO_PAIR QUEEN, JACK)
UTG shows K Diamond A Spade (TWO_PAIR KING, QUEEN)
UTG wins $92.39
(Rake: $3.00)

Posted about 1 year ago

stl_jones

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352 posts
Joined 06/2011

I think my question is, whenever a decent villain is likely to have a medium strength hand, is there a point to having anything but a 100% value betting/raising range? I know some people at 50NL will fold, but how can I identify these people? I guess I need thousands of hands before I should ever think of trying to bluff someone off TP or better?

Posted about 1 year ago

joel

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136 posts
Joined 02/2011

allstar130690

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10 posts
Joined 03/2008

I think villain called a little too light in hand 1 but I would be calling against most regs in hand 1 with JJ+.



Hand 2:

I don't know what the hell villain is doing? I would fold here if I was villain w AK unless I had a read that the hero wouldn't play a strong hand like this; Although to be honest sometimes I'll rationalize a call here sometimes if villain is a relatively unknown reg by assuming that getting a read early that he will bluff with a line like this will pay off in the future.

Posted about 1 year ago

mrhobbeys

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520 posts
Joined 10/2009

#1

Looks fine until you get to the river. If you are going to bluff here I think you need to start sooner and bet larger so it looks more reputable like you have a made hand you are trying to get max value from. **That being said I have run into a strange problem the more Tight Aggressive I play the more players seem to "look me up" it seems like they forget I exist at the table and and they seem to forget how 10-15 hands ago I stacked the other guy next to them. But strangely the more Loose Aggressive I play the more folds I get and my red line skyrockets you would think they should call me down more as I get looser but they don't (I assume they can't range me as well or something strange).

#2

WTF Call the $9 if you think the guy is wasting his chips if you shove here you get called by a Qx hand and a Kx hand and AA.... This should be obviously a bad spot to bluff noone ever folds on paired boards especially the guy that has been betting the whole way. But if you call the $9 you catch him all those times he bets absolutely everything else he should not.

Now that I have reread this post I am adding that it seems you are looking for folds in the wrong types of spots, you seem to be trying to force your red line up.

**anecdotal evidence possibly dangerous but interesting none the less.

Posted about 1 year ago

SnappieVouz

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2593 posts
Joined 03/2009

ecause I feel like I'm losing because the other ABC regs aren't paying me off, and I don't run big bluffs so I'm not exploiting them



I think you don't have the correct understanding about exploiting. You don't exploit by running big bluffs at the micros, you need to have a very solid read on somebody for that to be +EV.

Posted about 1 year ago

Adriano85

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898 posts
Joined 02/2012

hand 1:
Bet much bigger on the river. He will fold more often.

hand 2:
Your sizing here looks a bit bluffy but I would be in a tough spot if I was villain. I would probably fold.


You are results orientated now because you got caught a couple times but that's fine. Making good bluffs at the right moment is a skill you have to learn.

Posted about 1 year ago

UU!I.I.4AAUU35

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1167 posts
Joined 07/2010

In hand 1 I think I like a fold preflop, in hand 2 I think just fold the turn, unless you know villain to be a bluffy type who would bluff the flop and turn. Also, your ch/ call on the turn doesn't seem consistent with what you are representing, which is a slow played 66 or KQ, since you would raise that turn with possible flush and broadway draws on board. And then when you shove you are repping either boats or bluffs, since you aren't playing Qx trips this way.

Posted about 1 year ago

MI5 Mark

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1733 posts
Joined 06/2011

Hand one you are repping 89 or 44 (maybe these are not in your utg range) would you bet 3 streets with TT+? So for me it looks like a bluff, If I was villan I would consider turning my hand into a bluff as your river bet looks weak. If you really had a straight you would be betting bigger and going for a river shove.

Hand 2 you seem to be repping QQ, so if I was villan I would be thinking QQ or maybe AA/KK but there are few combos of these, you could have a 66 but you would probably raise the turn or flop (maybe you fast play big hands normally).

Also people are pretty stationy even at 50NL so I would be bluffing alot less and concentrating on my leaks rather than spewy multi street bluffs. I have tried these and alot of the time they dont work, villan has to be able to lay down a strong hand (not many can at micros)

Posted about 1 year ago

micsquab

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703 posts
Joined 09/2010

Hand 1 bad cards to barrel
Hand 2 x/c ott kinda gives up your rright to bluff otr.

Posted about 1 year ago

Deets

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541 posts
Joined 11/2010

Just don't expect anyone to give up TPTK+ getting anywhere-near-decent pot odds. Go for value against that whole range and bluff enough non-made hands.

In the first hand villain would likely have checked-called 2 streets and folded river with the hand you had, or something like A5s I think but would have a hard time folding his overpair to the 1/2-pot bet on the river. In the second hand I think you'd have got a lot more folds if you guys were deeper.

Also, be wary of your contradicting thought process at the end of your post "how do you determine if someone will fold a medium strength hand when you have 0 bluffs in your range?" You clearly don't have 0 bluffs in your range.

Posted about 1 year ago

shuttle

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3334 posts
Joined 11/2008

If not, how do you determine if someone will fold a medium strength hand when you have 0 bluffs in your range?


but you did have a bluff in hand 1... and hand 2...

Posted about 1 year ago

ejplecht

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612 posts
Joined 01/2010

I think you don't have the correct understanding about exploiting. You don't exploit by running big bluffs at the micros, you need to have a very solid read on somebody for that to be +EV.



pretty much this!
You have the wrong idea of non ABC plays.

To your hands, what exactly are you repping? Hand 1 what exactly is he folding on the R? Hand 2, ....and at the River you suddenly found out you got a Q? You are repping exactly what u have.

Posted about 1 year ago

UU!I.I.4AAUU35

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1167 posts
Joined 07/2010

I think you are right to be looking into ways to open up your game, but these hands look like you are trying too hard to force things, probably tilted. Look for bluff spots that let you tell a consistent story. I think one reason floats work so well is because they look less bluffy, and make more sense with a value range, often more-so than more nuts/air type situations.

Posted about 1 year ago

stl_jones

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352 posts
Joined 06/2011

but you did have a bluff in hand 1... and hand 2...


Eh true.

Idk, I guess I've just been running poorly and running into the bottom of villains ranges when I have the nuts. Or more likely, I'm just forgetting the times I've been hero called when I have the nuts.

While still pretty tilted, I was talking to a friend on skype who's game I respect a decent amount. His response to the A8s was "Lol, I doubt they fold any pair for that bet amount on the river, obv is you bet the turn you have to bet the river, but if that's the plan you should be bombing the river, or even overbetting." I'm not sure what I think about that. I responded with "So when I have 98s here I get paid off 100% of the time with trash?" He responds, "You would never bet that small with 98."

I agree that I do have bet sizing tells, but is that really such a huge problem? With 2pair/sets I would bet $14 here to get looked up by 99 here. With 98s I would be more likely to bet $20-$24 because anything he calls with I beat. I thought a good player would be able to recognize a thin value bet? My friend said that this sounds like I'm trying to balance which is pointless at 50NL.

Maybe this is where I'm missing out on most my money? Not adjusting my bet sizing to what I want them to do with their range. So in hand 1, should I be near potting it for a bluff, and 1/2 potting it for value?

H2, eh, this is how I play KQ, 66, AQo/AQs. I find that most people fold everything down to AQ when I do shove for value, but I don't have soul reads on everyone that I know they won't hero call me, so I guess I'll go back to having a range of only KQ, 66, AQ for shoving the river.

Posted about 1 year ago




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