DeathDonkey continues the video review session of 2 tables $10/20 Triple Draw from last week.
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RT: im not sure he would cap #5 (or should) given our history and how he plays etc, so i think i played this hand best. i know i went 3-pat, but for hom to cap #5 and b/c river he'd have to expect me to 3b and call down #9 and then raise river with #5 or worse. seems pretty unlikely imo.
LT: i dont really think its inconsistent tbh. otf we have 2 draws to improve and we always draw as we'll make the same hand or better 50% or so. its also MW so we''re not really expecting for our 9 to hold very often. ott though we only have 1 more chance to improve and there is another 9 dead. we can have the best hand vs profic alot and we also can assume that FODMAND is still drawing alot. if these are both true then we're a pretty big favourite in a 3way pot and its not that unlikely that they are true. so thats why i did what i did.
one thing i didnt consider was the fact that we already saw a 9, and that make it less likely that profic has one, so now i think we're patting dead more often and that the correct play is to break (it may be better anyway).
LT: Ok, DD missed a crucial part of this hand which, imo, changes the analysis completely. lg raised UTG (HJ) and after getting 2 callers IP drew 3! this to me signifies that he has at least 22w and likely another paired wheel card, and possibly just 222wx. so now he leads and goes 3-pat having had alot of dead cards (presumably). so he can be snowing, pat some crappy 9 or just have caught really well. note how profic also didnt raise 3:2*:2 with his 1cd as he has jammed some wheel draws already in MW pots for whatever reasons he has.
now it goes 0:1:2 and bet/raise as i catch #14 and showing that only one more 8 is available, and only one possible 2 for profic to have. profic also likely raises all 8's he can make and many 9's because "lg went 3-pat, he cant have anything lol". in light of this i think its an easy freeze and do so. now lg 3bets which i think he would obviously do with a 7 and maybe #5/6 in this spot but i also felt like he'd 3bet some unbreakable 9's hoping profic would break or fold something and that i would still be drawing. profic then calls ruling out all 7's (which he's unlikely to have anyway due my my 2 theory) and gives him #9, 13, 16, 18 and his unbreakable 9's. ("im not folding, he went 3-pat ffs).
It gets back to me and now i think im a favourite vs profics range at best and a slight dog at worst and lg is extrememly polarized. the pot is fkin huge also, so just call/pat and decide otr. i dont expect lg or profic to bet worse after 0:0:0 or even 0:1:0 so i can probably just fold the river for one bet, or just payoff getting a bazillion:1 and not be too unhappy.
Its possible i just got super lucky that everything worked out like this and its also possible my assessment is somewhat results orientated (its hard not to be) but i think the fact that profic was in this pot lead to it being played the way it was by both me and lg. if profic wasnt at the table, lg probably would have folded pre and the hand would never happen