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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by FoxwoodsFiend (High Stakes)

After his turn flat call, I actually expected him to have either KJcc/KTcc a lot and AK a bit less often (cause that hand might raise the turn) because of the way he played the hand. I really don't think he ever has a set here.

Here's my thought process, and I'd love to hear what you guys think:

First of all, on the flop, his sets would have fast-played because the board is so connected and people show up with broadway hands so often in a 4-way single-raised pot (notice that WingMan had QT here) that its very easy for him to get value by worse. Expecting him to be worried about us having 89 here is too much of a stretch (look what he called us on the flop with), most of the time he's going to put us on 2 pair or pair+draw and will fast play QQ/JJ/TT every time to protect & charge the KQ/KJ/KT hands that we or someone else in the hand might have. At the same time I can see a lot of people peeling once with a K here without even thinking about what our range is.

On the turn when he calls again, it seems really weird to me. At this point I'm even more confident that he would not flat any set than on the flop.... we basically told him that we're never folding after we pot the turn and he's doing great against our range if he has a set, even if we include 89. So he doesn't have QQ, JJ or TT, probably not K9s though that beats us anyway, so that leaves KJcc and KTcc and maybe a stubborn KK. AK is still possible but again that beats us anyway. I know its a stretch to put someone on a super narrow range like that but I just don't see how he could have anything else. Is it a mistake for him to call with KJcc here? Yeah almost definitely, but you can't expect people to play perfectly. It's probably just too tempting for most people to fold a draw with that many outs even if its just one card to come (and WingMan could not re-open the action either). All of that considered we are clearly dead on the river....

On the river I definitely dont like the shove, but I guess you were operating under the assumption that he could still have a set while I personally feel he can't have one. Even if he can have a set though I prefer check/calling over shoving into him. Over both of those I like check/folding...

Interesting hand....

Your assumptions in this posts doesn't make sense and what is it based on anyways?

Things like people will fast play sets on wet boards makes no sense because its based on how you will play how people play vs you. Why villain can slow play AK but can't slow play a set? I can say he slow play a set because he's trapping the fish or whatever other reason and we just argue about nothing. You can't say 100% sure villain doesn't have a set so when we assign villain a range we included some combo of sets. I don't see how calling with KTcc is better than calling with a set, equity of a set is much much much much higher than KTcc vs my betting range.

Time Link to 00:38:11

You don't think villain has AK in his range at all? He is opening from UTG/HJ and facing 3bet from SB; tight players do not 4bet AK here that often in my opinion. As Ariel mentioned, 22 is less likely for him to have than 77, because of the pref action. Maybe sometimes he gives up with 88 on the flop already too. There are 1 combo of AKs and 5 combos AKo left. Lets assume with AK he plays 2 combos out of 6 like this. Then he needs to play 2 combos of AQ this way and we have a break even call here against his "value" range. Its worth to notice that there is more possible AQ hands. More opportunities for him to play AQ like this than AK, even tho its a shitty play. Assuming his range is 2 combos AK, 2 combos AQ, every combo of 77 and 88 (leaving 22 out): Our equity is 28,6% when pot odds are 26%. If we think he could have more wide range, including rest of the sets and FDs, its a bit different. We need him to have 4-5 flush draw combos if he could have all the set of 22 here for example. But anyways my point was; adding AK to his range changes our equity. And I think its quite possible that he could have AK here.

You don't think villain has AK in his range at all? He is opening from UTG/HJ and facing 3bet from SB; tight players do not 4bet AK here that often in my opinion. As Ariel mentioned, 22 is less likely for him to have than 77, because of the pref action. Maybe sometimes he gives up with 88 on the flop already too. There are 1 combo of AKs and 5 combos AKo left. Lets assume with AK he plays 2 combos out of 6 like this. Then he needs to play 2 combos of AQ this way and we have a break even call here against his "value" range. Its worth to notice that there is more possible AQ hands. More opportunities for him to play AQ like this than AK, even tho its a shitty play. Assuming his range is 2 combos AK, 2 combos AQ, every combo of 77 and 88 (leaving 22 out): Our equity is 28,6% when pot odds are 26%. If we think he could have more wide range, including rest of the sets and FDs, its a bit different. We need him to have 4-5 flush draw combos if he could have all the set of 22 here for example. But anyways my point was; adding AK to his range changes our equity. And I think its quite possible that he could have AK here.

Looking back at this, we can argue about if villain can have AK (he should not) but it doesn't matter. Even if villain can have some combos of AK it does very little to change the way we should construct our ranges.