Mid Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Anybody folding the turn? Or is the only question to get it in on the turn or wait for the river?

I am, I don't think your average villain here has a properly distributed value/bluff range and once you bet/call the flop he'll probably only contine with sets (I completely disagree JJ and 33 3bet pre-flop or AJ check-raises as a standard) and maybe nut flush draws (AKss, AQss, ATss) All of these T9, T8, 98, 97, 87, 76, 75ss hands most likely aren't in his defending range and I just don't think regulars are ever really trying to exploit you here by check/raising the flop let alone multi-barrel check/raising additional streets to come when your range is clearly 1 pair by the river.

I really hate applying composite stats to this situation, because you have no idea how heavily those stats are weighted towards his blind vs. BTN play and he may very well be "honest injun" vs. you UTG. If I had the As I'm definitely folding the turn, maybe even the flop because I doubt he'll have any idea of how nitty we're folding or have the opportunity to pick up on it anyway.

My thinking about some stuff said :

- If we bet-fold AA there, isnt too exploitable ? In a certain way I would say we only keep going with v strong stuff there and if fold AA wont it be too easy to exploit from vilain perspective ? Esp if we are more nutted on turn then he might just stop being aggro if he pick up on it ?

- If he is overaggressive, wont he expect us to shove over his turn bet quite often with a hand we have ? Then I think the counter argument might be to just call turn with the plan to call any river ?

- And I totally disagree with 1st comment "This villain would almost always 3bet JJ preflop, and either 3bet or fold 33, "

HE might be v aggro Postflop and less Preflop - Both are noth necessary connected

I would say id shove turn a lot but wont vilain have an easy way to play vs us if we just stick it in with strong hand vs his aggression ?

Dunno if im clear enough

My thinking about some stuff said :

- If we bet-fold AA there, isnt too exploitable ? In a certain way I would say we only keep going with v strong stuff there and if fold AA wont it be too easy to exploit from vilain perspective ? Esp if we are more nutted on turn then he might just stop being aggro if he pick up on it ?

of course cbet folding "as a plan" is retarded, i was just pointing out how important it is to have an idea about villains range to continue at all, because we will pay a high price otherwise. and everybody posting looked like they play totally random against this x/r.
folding after the cbet is not retarded though, just not the best play, that was what i was trying to say

- If he is overaggressive, wont he expect us to shove over his turn bet quite often with a hand we have ? Then I think the counter argument might be to just call turn with the plan to call any river ?

if he'd expect that he should not bet at all and it would be a big mistake on his part, which is the biggest problem with seeing a turn, we dont know how big of a mistake he is doing there. we cannot assume ppl playing perfectly, so our ev is bound to this as well, no matter wether we call of raise the turn.
that's why i brought in x/b flop to protect ourselves from own and villains mistakes there.

I would say id shove turn a lot but wont villain have an easy way to play vs us if we just stick it in with strong hand vs his aggression ?
Dunno if im clear enough

we are not in here to have villain keep on bluffing but make a better decision on later streets. we dont know how likely villain is to keep on bluffing this nor any turn, so we have to see wether the board developes in a way that is bad for us, bad to barrel or see him give up.

still -> xb flop, bec the situation occuring is nothing but a mistake on the cbet part in this hand imo

edit: since the spot is so edgy we need to have a good read on his ranges there to be able to paly this hand accordingly, otherwise it is an expensive guessing game

of course cbet folding "as a plan" is retarded, i was just pointing out how important it is to have an idea about villains range to continue at all, because we will pay a high price otherwise. and everybody posting looked like they play totally random against this x/r.
folding after the cbet is not retarded though, just not the best play, that was what i was trying to say

in this hand i think that either my reasonings to fold the turn or x/b flop is the best way to play this
not sure how to play on random turns though once we call the flop, so x/b

<3

hm, the XB flop idea is anyhow not the worst idea here. there aren't so many hands we can get 3 streets of value from (lets say he 3bet QQ+). we dont really need to protect our hand, a FD is small part of his range, and no overcards really scare us.

when the guy is aggro or can value bet thin, he will go for 2 streets with TT/QJs (not sure thats in his calling range, but AJ KJ maybe) or start bluffing.

we obviously have a small balance problem when we checkback AA here :-)

I think I prefer flop 3bet here, but yeah honestly I suck in these spots readless.

I don't think we need to worry about exploitability unless our range is perceived as being exploitable, i.e. are villains really going to fuck with us when we are in position at the top of our range, and even if we fold enough of our range in order to be exploitable how is he going to "detect" it over a small sample of hands in a very binary UTG vs blinds confrontation?

I mean, if people's 3bet% vs UTG from the blinds is any indication of their check/raise% vs UTG, I'd say it's heavily skewed to value.

I'm playing around with pokerstove and I can't come up with a range that justifies getting it in on the turn. Do you really expect him to take that line with air or AJ?

Board: Js 3s 7h 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.852% 33.85% 00.00% 283 0.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 66.148% 66.15% 00.00% 553 0.00 { JJ, 77, 33, AhQh, AsQs, AhTh, AsTs, Ah5h, As5s, KhQh, KsQs, KhTh, KsTs, Th9h, Ts9s, 9h8h, 9s8s }


I'm really not sure about this spot tho, so if anyone could help me, I'd really appreciate it.

Yeah you should add some AJ/KJ against an aggro check/raiser

QQ too.

Anybody folding the turn? Or is the only question to get it in on the turn or wait for the river?

really villain dependent, and as to grindcores point his aggro-ness thus far makes us more inclined to take a play that may look like we are playing back at him more, what does he think our range is like when we call the raise? VALUE, i almost think if we call the flop raise we need to fold the turn, or call and call river. I think raising the flop is better then shoving the turn tbh, we rarely look like we have air when we shove turn and almost overplay our hand, but otf we could still have some weaker holdings imo so i think its the better spot

Yeah you should add some AJ/KJ against an aggro check/raiser

that is a bit optimistic. i am a pretty aggro checkraiser (vs raiser, not as PFR), but i tend to focus this aggression on CO and BTN. just because you have someone seen checkraising 7/10 times vs CO/BTN doesnt mean he is checkraising as aggro vs EP.

UTG must have a 20% range or more, so he has hands in his range we dominate (with KJ, AJ its a bit less). even then his calling range has us dominated.

Yeah you are right, missed the positions in this hand.

SpewKid; note that with that range you are already close to justify getting it in on the turn. 440$ stacks, so total pot to get it in = 880$. 33,85% of 880$ => 297$. 440-297-64-14=65$ We do have 33% on that 65$, so that's potentially a 22$ mistake to call here. 22/(158+22)=0,12 => so if we do have 12% fold equity and 33% equity when called it would be breakeven to get it in against the range you provide.

Think we have to assume that we have at least some fold equity, and there most also some probability of villain not 3betting QQ/KK vs UTG so it's getting it in can't be too bad. Fact that we are 110bb deep instead of 100bb deep is a bit annoying, would be a lot less close with 100bb stacks.

I dislike bet/call flop, raise turn completely, this isn't Blinds vs LP where the Blinds are going to have a wide barreling range on the turn, if we have any chance of stacking AK, AQ, ATs here then we should take it on the flop because we don't know whether or not he even 2 barrels his flush draws once we call his check/raise.

I'm not sure I like the flop call. Our perceived callingrange there is not often folding turn and in fact very often shoving turn. We're also beating draws, rather than flipping. I'd rather 3b the flop to get all the money in ahead rather than having him x/f turns or getting there. There's also a chance he's raising KJ etc on the flop given his frequencies so far and against a hand like that you definitely want to 3b the flop.

I love your theory behind this, and agree.

At what stack size are you just calling the flop?