Mid Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Not wanting to get 4b by UTG is an emotional reason, not one based on math etc.

I didn´t feel that way tbh, I was sure it was math-based. Let me explain (all figures result from playing with StoxEV):

Let´s ignore the cold-callers and concentrate on UTG. If he stacks off with QQ+, AK - then 3bet/calling is break-even if UTG opens > ~10%. If he opens less, it has negative EV.

Even if he opens 20% and stacks off only with 2.5% we roughly make 5bb in the long run by 3betting.

Now, if we 3bet and fold we make 7bb, which means, against a tight stack-off-range 3betting and folding is better than 3betting and calling.

That was why I meant I´d waste the potential of JJ. Where am I wrong? Do you assume UTG is shipping that much wider? Even if we assume he´s shipping TT+, AQs+, AK 3bet/calling roughly has the same EV as 3bet/folding ...

Either villains aren't squeezing as much as they should OOP vs UTG or villains aren't defending vs squeezes UTG as much as they should from a mathematical perspective. I think player tendencies, image and game flow are more important for determing your frequency and golden ratio for squeezing here, and if you're calling JJ instead of 3bet/calling it (3bet/folding being unacceptable) then you're not losing that much EV if any in the games as they are played at MSNL.

As far as assumptions are concerned, I don't know about TT IP, but no regular is stacking off AQ IP pre-flop over calling because getting it AI vs. AK and folding the bottom of his range is pretty fail.

Edit: Actually I pretty much agree with GC, I played exploitably at 200nl (KK+ Axs, Kxs) and made a ton of money here.

I didn´t feel that way tbh, I was sure it was math-based. Let me explain (all figures result from playing with StoxEV):

Let´s ignore the cold-callers and concentrate on UTG. If he stacks off with QQ+, AK - then 3bet/calling is break-even if UTG opens > ~10%. If he opens less, it has negative EV.

Even if he opens 20% and stacks off only with 2.5% we roughly make 5bb in the long run by 3betting.

Now, if we 3bet and fold we make 7bb, which means, against a tight stack-off-range 3betting and folding is better than 3betting and calling.

That was why I meant I´d waste the potential of JJ. Where am I wrong? Do you assume UTG is shipping that much wider? Even if we assume he´s shipping TT+, AQs+, AK 3bet/calling roughly has the same EV as 3bet/folding ...

So you think flatting has an EV of +7BBs? Just 3b/fold v UTG and happily call the others when they shove. I feel the potential JJ has is being wasted more by setmining than by 3betting it here. Sure if you had to 3b-fold it vs everyone else too it makes sense to squeeze air and flat JJ to increase the EV of your overall range, but here it doesn't.

... and don't forget that people don't only fold or shove. UTG and/or the other players calling are all significantly +ev outcomes where having JJ instead od something else really matters.

I think relying on the cold caller back-raising AI or calling in position to justify the value is thin, most cold callers are not going to play back at your squeezes unless they feel you are targeting them on their button. At best, you get calls from AQ, AJs, KQs, TT from the MP/CO cold caller HU, and I don't see many regs who over call the squeeze to set mine either.

Also, calling JJ just for "set mining" value is ridiculous, we're going to have an over pair 50% of the time so we're not wasting the value of the hand post-flop by calling. I think it's just thin to the point where a dynamic has to exist for JJ to get it in good pre-flop (over caller is on the button or in the SB) or our image is busted.

You're probably just better off sticking to AA-QQ, AK and seeing how the villain responds to your squeezes before you open up your value range than defaulting with JJ readless and taking the variance because 200nl to 400nl villains are likely way more weak tight here than you think.

If they're so tight that we can't squeeze for value here, we should have been bluff squeezing tons before this and by then this hand would have been a profitable squeeze for value again.

i love you grindcore <3

GC whats your typical 3betting range in this spot vs a 27% UTG open?