i am raising. You want to make the EP limpers fold. If you want to just call, would you not be pricing in the draws on the turn? I am assuming you would prefer the pot get heads up ASAP. No chance I want to check the turn, waiting for anyone to bet, since it would be a total disaster to get checked around.
PS how are the live games there? And.......... maybe a table read or two would help?
If you have any inclination that MP will continue on the turn, I prefer waiting for a safe turn when your equity could be considerable higher if a blank falls.
Although the pot is large (12.5 sb) when it gets to you, raising will give the ep limpers 14.5 to 2 (7.5 to 1) and the likely calls from the other players really puts their odds slightly higher (plus the implied odds for the later streets). Therefore, arguably a pair or gutshot is getting the right odds to continue whether you raise or not. Like you said, its live play and I'm guessing people aren't folding anyway, so all you're really doing is charging people incorrect odds since they are calling.
So, waiting to raise a blank turn, you can likely charge the ep guys two full bets on the turn which will likely be about 5-1 or 6-1.
so many scare cards on the turn, I am not so confident that anyone WILL bet the turn, and if they check, and I get raised, since I underrepresented the hand on the flop, will be reluctant to fold.
I am raising to define my hand, for value, to drive out the field with a good but unlikely to improve hand on a scary board.
I like checking the flop hoping the LP PFR (or Btn) bets and we can get in a C/R in an attempt to drive out the two preflop limpers. I don't see a lot of merit to waiting for the turn as I think we just lose too much value and can be put in a lot of potentially uncomfortable spots unnecessarily. I guess its probably likely we don't get anyone to fold anything we want them to fold anyways, but I think C/R at least allows us to charge the table the max with their A9,JT type hands.
I could see an argument for leading if you felt the PFR was unlikely to C-bet most of his range on this flop.
This (once again) was from SSHE. Miller et al say wait till turn. I'm (once again) not really happy about going for that OOP. I can see turn check though a lot which is a disaster.
no live FL anywhere near where I live. I'd need to go to Vegas for that.
On a happier note, that's exactly what I'm doing this Friday
If you raise the flop, both the MP bettor and Button caller both call and never fold (and possibly MP 3-bets you).
As for being concerned of the turn checking through when a scared card hits, I didn't think the idea was to ever donk the flop, or to ever check raise when one of the scare cards hit. I thought the idea was to c/c the turn on a scary card but c/r a brick. Then on the river either c/c or c/f depending on a which cards have hit and what action follows.
I thought the idea was to c/c the turn on a scary card but c/r a brick. Then on the river either c/c or c/f depending on a which cards have hit and what action follows.
IF you do that, how will you feel when the turn gets checked through, even on a scary card and you give any of the draws a free look at the turn AND river?
the players do NOT have to have the draw, but if the scare card hits, have seen many many medium strength hands check back in multi way pots.
If the turn is a brick, are you expecting any of the draws to bet?
I would wait till the turn on this one usually. We like our hand now and would love to protect it and get value, however, this is the type of hand that can go down the tubes quickly on the turn.
I think if the preflop raiser was UTG in this situation it would be a no brainer wait for the turn since if he decided not to bet a brick turn there is a much better chance someone will. That being said, the fact he is C betting this flop should indicate that he has a strong enough hand to bet a brick turn but also enough hands in his range we are ahead of.
I realize our equity is good on the flop, but I am not overly optimistic of our chances of taking this hand down. I think we put far too many bets in when we CR the flop and then get 3b or raised on the turn and are priced in many situations.
For those of you who advocate a flop CR instead of waiting for the turn, is this by far the better option in your opinion or do you think its close between the two options. The reason I ask is because in my mind it seems that waiting for the turn is quite a bit better than CR the flop. That being said its possible I am missing something here since I can see that some very good players are advocating the flop CR.
I realize now that it seems SSHE has these hands, but what is "your" read on live games?
mine is that they are much more passive than online. I have seen many many turns and rivers get checked in circumstances I would have never imagined (and were clearly wrong IMO)
would the turn getting checked through by what (put your own guess here) percentage be enough to change your mind?