Mid Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

So this hand came up while letting a few DC members from IRC ghost me. Villian is 38/14/2.3 went to showdown 32%. We've seen him show down some marginal holdings @ river - and he is definitely doing this with JT+ here, but also means 8x is definitely in his range.

Thoughts imo?

I am betting turn here > 90% of time vs said types of opponents - thoughts on that also?

Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $499.15
UTG: $408.20
MP: $403.00
CO: $439.55
Hero (BTN): $388.00
SB: $467.30

Pre Flop: Hero is BTN with A J
2 folds, CO raises to $4, Hero raises to $15, 2 folds, CO calls $11

Flop: ($33.00) J 6 8 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $25, CO calls $25

Turn: ($83.00) 8 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $61, CO raises to $122

I was sweating this with Messiah using teamviewer, interesting hand.Nice bet on the flop , made it look like a c-bet . the 8 is a good card for you , he just cold called you pre flop so he can have anything , right now the 8 is an awesome card for you. his hand ranges looks like a 6 x , 7 10 .. but I got a feeling your ahead. somehow just feels his drawing with a raise there cause I dont think he puts you on a J. so his trying to represent the 8.
What do you guys think?

From my experience at 100NL and 200NL, someone C/C the flop and C/R the turn (to any size, but a min raise especially) is usually very strong. three of a kind at least. Alot of times guys that play a 40/15ish from my experience are going to bluff/semibluff on the flop because its much cheaper to get a fold that way. Someone playing 38/15 really isnt thinking enough to try and "represent a hand" If they're bluffing its not going to be set up through a call on the flop then a raise on the turn.

I think a JT would raise the flop if he's going to raise at all, or just call down. Draws that are plyaed aggressively would usually be played that way on the flop since theres two cards etc. Here I would think three of a kind 8s or a full house+ with this line.

Your turn betting is fine as worse jacks and draws will call so keep betting till he gives you a reason not too. Im not crazy after the turn min CR and would mostly be peeling once / folding to a significant river bet.

Heres my general observations from this type of player:
Will peel any pair on the flop.
Is likely to min CR drawy hands on flop, fire a donk bet or PSB on turn then give up unimproved hands on river.
Will min CR turned trips to build the pot and "trap you"
Can occasionally min CR worse hands/draws im a limit style play to slow you down / get to showdown (def possible given villains WTSD and AF stats)
Are incapable of value betting the river without the nuts and won't turn the worst made hand into a bluff.

Im interested in everyonelses thoughts on this hand with regards to folding on the turn, a play id be more likely to make if a call were pot committing with stacks 100bb+.

you have to hope that he gives up on the river. nice price, call and fold to any riverbet even if an ace hits? lol

dont know what to do, just fold the turn

im a noob, what's IRC? Is it like AIM/MSN, do a lot of u use it?

NEVER fold the turn to an unkown just peel then decisions on river