board is 2c 2s 8d 6c Ks. In position Flop: check check Turn: .35 into .50 River: .65 into 1.20
I think people are having problem with the range we put him on in the video (because this is 10NL) so here's a new one I think people would be more agreeable to. (I caution this range though because his call open is not high, he is playing a lot of hands but he is the pfr'er in those hands. This range may be more suitable for say a 21/14 type of bad 10NL reg)
most people in the comments think he is 3 betting AJ+ KQ and TT+ and that his calling range is much wider because we min raised.
3 betting AJ+ KQ TT+
Calling some 89s 9Ts type hands, any PP lower < TT, JT,QT,JK,KTs Fair?
check check, lets say his range stays the same for simplicity. (i.e.not donking small pp's) Also I think it is still the correct play as he is not folding any pp, any 8 and we don't know if he is calling with overs or not. We can be more sure that he will bet air into us on the turn then he will call air on flop.
For value he is probably betting 22,66,77,88,99, 89s, he is probably checking 33,44, and 55 to get to showdown and has a bluffing range of 9Ts, JT, JQ, QT, KTs, KJ
River: # of combos in parentheses( )
For value probably betting 22(1),66(3),88(3),99(6) 89s(3), KJ(12), KTs(3), Probably checking 77(6),33(6),44(6),55(6) and may be bluffing 9Ts(3), JT(12),JQ(16), QT(12),
So value = 31 combos
checking = 24 combos
bluffing -50%= 20 combos (It is really 40 combos but I am going to discount by 50% as he is not bluffing two barrels every time he has one of these hands and most people at this level do not value bet bluff like this)
Total combos = 75 Total combos that he is betting into us = 51
For value = 28/51 = 55%
As bluff = 20/28 = 45%
He bet .65 into 1.20 giving us 2.85:1 which means he needs to be bluffing 26% of the time for us to call and since based on the range we give him at this point in the hand he is bluffing 45% of the time then it is +EV to call. So now we know folding is out, but in the comments a few people say to raise. Now we need to find out if a call or a raise is the most optimal play.
So now we need to separate hands that he is pure bluffing. hands that he is bet/folding and hands he is bet/calling.
1. He is never folding a king or better
2. He is going to fold any hand that is worse then a king.
So pure bluffing hands are 9Ts(3), JT(12),JQ(16), QT(12) which = 40 combos but we are discounting by 50% and are calling 20 combos
Bet/folding = 89s(3) 99(6) = 9 combos
Bet calling = 22(1),66(3),88(3), KJ(12), KTs(3) = 22 combos
Total combos = 51 (its important to note that we are not folding out 77, 33, 44 and 55 because he is not betting them on the river, this is something I think a lot of the people advocating a raise overlooked).
So the pot is 1.20 and he bet .65 into it. If we raise it is going to be about 3x if we want him to fold 89s and 99. So we will be risking 1.95 to get 1.85, so we need him to be folding approx. 52% of the time to break even. out of the 51 combos he is bet calling 22 which leaves 29 that he will be folding. 29/51= 57%. So this is also a +EV play.
So the raising EV calc is .57(1.85) + .43(-1.95) = 1.05 - .84 = +$0.21 profit.
For calling: .45(1.85) + .55(-.65) = .83 - .36 = +$0.47.
So the play is to call based on the range we gave him. Even if we add in TT to his bet fold range it is .61(1.85) +.39(-1.95) = 1.13 - .76 = +$0.37 which still makes calling the most optimal play.
Worth a free coaching session?