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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by Hielko (Micro/Small Stakes)

That should not be the case at all. Hero's range here to bet the turn should contain a shit load of bluffs, and he certainly should give up those bluffs a decent amount of the time on the river. And if he has a lot of bluffs that are giving up, A-high in CO-shoes should be good. And I also don't agree with the statement that if CO is a good player he should not bluff the river, because hero's river checking range should contain a lot of bluffs that are just giving up, and if CO has a hand that can't even beat a bluff he should strongly consider bluffing it. And since that is just a small part of his range, and he certainly could valuebet thin (even though we expect that he usually checks behind) I see no reason why he shouldn't be able to bluff. And at the same time hero should never fold 8x and 7x, but those things are actually not contradictory.
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I disagree, if hero is betting the turn as a bluff then he's betting the river as a bluff as well quite often, and because the SB called pre-flop, and checked both flop and turn and the CO checked behind a Q87ddx flop I think players will realize the SB's range is heavily weighted towards PPs and the CO's range contains some pot-controlled pairs to avoid a check/raise. Once Hero bets, we don't know whether or not hero bets with his marginal SD value to fold out higher PPs or higher Ace kickers and once villain calls, personally, I'd only check the river with PPs, 8x, 7x, or my highest Ace kickers figuring my PP will now beat air on the river since non JJ-99s aren't calling a turn bet and Axss isn't turning itself into a bluff on the river (even tho' it should IMO).

I just think relying on Ax's showdown value here is thin, because you're relying on hero betting once with complete air and checking once with complete air when he knows exactly what your range is. Maybe I'm spewy, but if I choose to bet the turn with air then I've already decided to bet the river on a blank as well
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Edit: Actually, I might check thru' AK, AJ, AT on the turn to either free-roll to 2nd best (and likely best) pair on the river and check/raise bluff it if they bet turn instead but A9, A6-2 and 66-33 are probably getting bluffed.

I disagree, if hero is betting the turn as a bluff then he's betting the river as a bluff as well quite often, and because the SB called pre-flop, and checked both flop and turn and the CO checked behind a Q87ddx flop I think players will realize the SB's range is heavily weighted towards PPs and the CO's range contains some pot-controlled pairs to avoid a check/raise. Once Hero bets, we don't know whether or not hero bets with his marginal SD value to fold out higher PPs or higher Ace kickers and once villain calls, personally, I'd only check the river with PPs, 8x, 7x, or my highest Ace kickers figuring my PP will now beat air on the river since non JJ-99s aren't calling a turn bet and Axss isn't turning itself into a bluff on the river (even tho' it should IMO).

I just think relying on Ax's showdown value here is thin, because you're relying on hero betting once with complete air and checking once with complete air when he knows exactly what your range is. Maybe I'm spewy, but if I choose to bet the turn with air then I've already decided to bet the river on a blank as well

That would certainly be spewy, because hero's range here contains a huge number of combo's of potential bluffs compared to his valuebetting range. Even if he wouldn't bet ATC on the turn there are still a ton of missed flush and straight draws, and at the same time villains range is heavily weighted towards bluff catchers and it would be really unlikely that he's going to fold those on this specific board texture. So bluffing this river with a high frequency is probably setting money on fire.

That would certainly be spewy, because hero's range here contains a huge number of combo's of potential bluffs compared to his valuebetting range. Even if he wouldn't bet ATC on the turn there are still a ton of missed flush and straight draws, and at the same time villains range is heavily weighted towards bluff catchers and it would be really unlikely that he's going to fold those on this specific board texture. So bluffing this river with a high frequency is probably setting money on fire.

Hmm, but is bluffing turn and checking river any less spewy? In theory we have 77, 66, 76s, AQ, KQ, QJs, QTs, 99 in our value betting range and villain doesn't know the frequency at which we bluff or semi-bluff the turn relative to our value range in reality, and it's not a common situation that'd accrue history so I'd rather two streets or no streets here when the backdoor spade turns because he's got a lot of running flush draws and checked behind gut shots here as well.

I just can't see myself bet, checking here a lot in practice, and judging from my HEM I'm not getting looked up very often but the sample size isn't exactly enormous. Maybe I'm just getting away with murder here or people are peeling 1 street with showdown value and folding the river with it, which could potentially be the result of me overbetting in these spots a lot. Maybe they're interpreting the over bet as a value bet because it's a bad place to bluff in their eyes?

As an aside, how often are you check-raising the turn here and how are you playing 7x? I usually bet the turn with some value hands, all non A high draws and air and just check thru' some sets, Axcc or Axss and 7x hands to try to get them to showdown and just check/raise them if the CO delayed Cbets me. I always figured this line has pretty decent credibility, but my play group seems to think it's awkward. Thoughts on that?

Hmm, but is bluffing turn and checking river any less spewy?

No because given the action so far both players are likely to just have nothing, so it doesn't matter that we bluff the turn a lot (and we also have a lot of semi-bluffs on the turn that have good equity, making it unattractive for villain to bluff catch for example with A-high)

In theory we have 77, 66, 76s, AQ, KQ, QJs, QTs, 99 in our value betting range and villain doesn't know the frequency at which we bluff or semi-bluff the turn relative to our value range in reality, and it's not a common situation that'd accrue history so I'd rather two streets or no streets here when the backdoor spade turns because he's got a lot of running flush draws and checked behind gut shots here as well.

Even without history I think almost every villain is correctly going to assume that you at least bet all your flush and straight draws on the turn. And I disagree that villain is going to have a lot of checked behind gut shots here as well, those are way to weak to be calling here on the turn.

I just can't see myself bet, checking here a lot in practice, and judging from my HEM I'm not getting looked up very often but the sample size isn't exactly enormous. Maybe I'm just getting away with murder here or people are peeling 1 street with showdown value and folding the river with it, which could potentially be the result of me overbetting in these spots a lot. Maybe they're interpreting the over bet as a value bet because it's a bad place to bluff in their eyes?

Overbetting is obviously very different, and as said in the video; could be good. Running a HM filter isn't that usefull anyway, because it's about this specific board texture were you get the blankest of blankest river cards.

As an aside, how often are you check-raising the turn here and how are you playing 7x? I usually bet the turn with some value hands, all non A high draws and air and just check thru' some sets, Axcc or Axss and 7x hands to try to get them to showdown and just check/raise them if the CO delayed Cbets me. I always figured this line has pretty decent credibility, but my play group seems to think it's awkward. Thoughts on that?

check-raising the turn here would be bad. We have no reason to believe that villain is going to bet the turn after he checked the flop, and we don't really want to give a free card here / fail to get value from bluff catchers. So I don't think having a xr range on the turn is credible. I would by the way bet the turn close to always with all Ax hands and 7x.

Ah, I meant villain checks behind gut shots with BDFDS to avoid being check/raised and calls when the gut shots are promoted to combo draws on the turn.

So, we're just betting our entire range when SB checks it thru'? I can understand betting here to eliminate over cards and fold small PPs etc. but is this specifically 3-way or would you ever check-raise the turn if it were just you and CO HU?

Specifically 3-way

Time Link to 00:09:56

excellent point - (from his perspective) 'if he expects me to call here always and bet very few hands, why would he c/r?'

Time Link to 00:14:45

'they think that you think like they think'

yes x1000

bad regulars are really poor at either observing or extrapolating how others approach spots, so they just rubber stamp their own thinking.