Listen carefully to what Bones says in the AQ spot, as a lot of the reasons are covered in there as to why you want to check back. Also, think about why you want to bet, and what your intentions are, and at the flop texture. This flop hits villains flatting range pretty hard. Due to this 'wet' texture implication, we're going to get check/raised a much higher % of the time on this board/in this spot than in other situations. So what you're saying is that you're trying to bet what might well be the best hand, but is still just ace high, which could have both show down value and reasonable pot equity, but will fold to a check raise (and often be lost when check/called), which happens a noticeable % of the time. All of this when you yourself say that hands that hit the flop are well within his range. Think carefully about the benefits of each line as they relate specifically to your hand, this board, the stacks, and all of the available factors that you have to you to make a decision.
Bones didn't say anything to my knowledge about AJ/KQ that would allude to preflop implications. He said that, in his opinion, villain would probably bet more with his stronger made hands on the turn. Both KQ and AJ should be folded preflop most likely in villains position here.
edit: running out of the house now but let me know if this doesn't help at all.
Thanks. That definitely helps I think. I ran it back a few more times and I think I'm beginning to be on the way to grabbing this. Here is what I have noted now. Let me know if I'm completely off base? sorry it's so long.
Pre flop he probably raises AA-TT, AJs+, AKo.
So he calls with 77-99, A9s-ATs, KT-KQs, QT-QJs, JTs, KQ-KJo, AJo.
When he checks to us, it rules out the flush draw. Most opponents semi-bluff there? So 2 spades not a huge concern.
99, 88, & 77 â€“ heâ€™d bet to see where he was and maybe take the pot there.
A9 â€“ heâ€™d check the flop hoping for an A or runner,runner for his straight or flush. Ace of spades/x is a possibility.
AT â€“ Heâ€™d bet. My observation is SB/BB villains bet if the flop hits them at all.
AJ â€“ Heâ€™d bet.
AQ â€“ Heâ€™d check
KT â€“ Heâ€™d bet.
KJ â€“ Heâ€™d bet or check-raise.
KQ â€“ Check calls to keep pot small and hope for straight.
QT â€“ Hmm. I donâ€™t know about this one.
QJ â€“ He bets or check raise.
JT â€“ Either bets or check-raise.
A9 â€“ AQ â€“ KQ â€“ QT â€“ JT
JT â€“ Either bets or check-raises. ( If he checks, then we check behind and he has JT we could lose a big pot, right? Because his hand is disguised. If we bet flop, then he raised weâ€™d know (or suspect) cheaper. But since this is the only option like this it wonâ€™t happen that often?) - but if we hit a King weâ€™ll get his stack if he has this.
When turn is an Ace, he would bet at least half pot with A9,AQ,KQ,JT. Only KQ and JT really hurt us after the turn. The weak bet is a poor attempt to stab at the pot since we checked behind so he probably has air?
So, checking the flop increased the value by 100 chips. If we just call the turn bet, he may take another stab on river? If he checks river, then we bet and maybe he calls to squeeze a little more out?