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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by WiltOnTilt (Micro/Small Stakes)

What are we doing on a non-flush river? Say a non-spade broadway or 3-8 hits? Do we value bet or check call?

i prefer value bet to c/c because most of his busted draws are likely folding the turn and we can rep plenty of air ourselves, especially with that turn card and people dont slowplay 9x enough on the turn.

ofc the value bet is much better vs someone who can read hands and a little more thin vs someone who cannot.

i love these. it reminds me of an old podcast that used to go on where they would interview good grinders and have hands discussed from the forums on pokerroad. i think this is ideal for learning bc it allows you to completly explain your thinking when it may be too hard to do in the forum! great idea for this style, props to whoever came up with the idea for this!

Time Link to 00:16:11

what's the difference between value betting a 9 on the river vs value betting our A? i.e. what hands worse than 9x call when we have 9x that dont call when we have A5? my best guess is good Aces that didnt check back the flop or worse 9s, but im not completely sure. also, if we have a 9 it makes it less likely he has a 9 and therefore decreases the combos of better hands in his range that will call our river bet?

thanks for the vid and tyia

Time Link to 00:16:43

can you expand on how KT is not excactly the same as 4x in this spot and what you mean by its a free roll for him to be turning KT into a bluff on the river?

maybe that KT can be outkicked if we were taking this like with like KJ or KQ?

what's the difference between value betting a 9 on the river vs value betting our A? i.e. what hands worse than 9x call when we have 9x that dont call when we have A5? my best guess is good Aces that didnt check back the flop or worse 9s, but im not completely sure. also, if we have a 9 it makes it less likely he has a 9 and therefore decreases the combos of better hands in his range that will call our river bet?

thanks for the vid and tyia

The EV of value betting comes from how often you are called by worse. When you value bet A5 there need to be more combinations of non-9x hands that call compared to when you value bet 9x, there are fewer combinations of trips for villain to have and therefore its more likely that a value bet will be good (comparatively speaking). So in other words, you value cut yourself less often when value betting 9x, whereas you will value cut yourself more often when betting A5. Depending on the range and tendencies we give villain, they could both be +EV value bets, it's just that 9x will be more +EV. Where we draw the line is hard to know in theory land without writing out an actual range and reads.

Also, there is some possibility the guy decided to value bet a better A high on the flop and then call the subsequent checkraise. It would be not at all uncommon for me to value bet a hand like AJ on this board texture on the flop in button's shoes vs many opponents and when I do that it's generally not to fold to checkraises. If I think I would need to bet/fold to a c/r (or im not sure) then it would usually be a check behind for me.

Hope that clears it up a little.

WoT

can you expand on how KT is not excactly the same as 4x in this spot and what you mean by its a free roll for him to be turning KT into a bluff on the river?

maybe that KT can be outkicked if we were taking this like with like KJ or KQ?

Yes that's basically it.

The freeroll of turning your hand into a bluff is basically that it's extremely hard to imagine very many hands that would go for value c/r on the flop, value bet the turn and then want to c/c the river. Most good opponents in this spot (and many spots similar to it) are either going to value bet or going to c/f this river because the bluff catchers that might call a river bet worse than 9x are going to check behind themselves most of the time. So once a good opponent checks here, it's almost always to c/f. So while you could check behind your KT and win a lot, you can win almost every time by shoving. Hence a virtual freeroll.

The only slight variation to this is if the checkraiser somehow has Ax. Most good opposition is not going to c/r A high here on the flop because it has plenty of showdown value here. Ax is one of the only hands i could imagine someone taking this line with and wanting to c/c the river, but again, it would be all about how many hands villain is turning into bluff. Most people are just happy to take the free showdown with anything worse than Ax here so it would still be a c/f

WoT

The only slight variation to this is if the checkraiser somehow has Ax. Most good opposition is not going to c/r A high here on the flop because it has plenty of showdown value here. Ax is one of the only hands i could imagine someone taking this line with and wanting to c/c the river, but again, it would be all about how many hands villain is turning into bluff. Most people are just happy to take the free showdown with anything worse than Ax here so it would still be a c/f

WoT

thanks for the fantastic replies.

so r u saying that if you are on the btn and you do think that Ax is in the check raiser's range, youd be less likely to turn your hand with showdown value into a bluff, and if you think Ax is not in his range, youd be very likely to turn your hand into a bluff?