Mid/High Stakes Limit Hold'em Poker Forums

Villain is a reg LAGTAG. Quite trixxy and rather SD bound

Any merit to checking?

Party Poker $10/$20 Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 171712
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Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is MP with A 8
1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls

Flop: (6 SB) 3 5 2 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB folds, BB calls

Turn: (4 BB) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero???

Hmm. If we bet, can we always assume that if were checkraised by a superior hand and fold? Personally against a reg i would hate my hand if i got checkraised on the turn here, he should have us crushed almost always. If not, check back and call river/bet if checked to. Also, he might bluff the river if he has a naked 6 or any two other overs that he peeled the flop with if we check back the turn. Another reason i like checking back is its pretty hard to get two bets from a worse hand, but if we check turn he might make a curiosity call with any pair.

He will rarely have a pair on the flop so his range will consist of 6x, Ax and overcards like JT/QJ/T9 etc.

I think he expects you to barrel most of your range on the turn and maybe check hands like TT possibly, so i dont think we induce enough action with a turn value check.

I think it comes down to whether you think you can bet to induce a raise often enough on the turn to make betting worthwhile as im not sure we get called by worse except exactly A6/A7, like i said he will rarely have a pair imo.

On the other hand im not sure you ever induce a river bluff by checking the turn vs decent opponents.

Do you think you could induce a bluff raise here by betting the turn?

Do you think he will bluff raise the turn more often that bluff bet the riv if we check?

Hmm. If we bet, can we always assume that if were checkraised by a superior hand and fold? Personally against a reg i would hate my hand if i got checkraised on the turn here, he should have us crushed almost always. If not, check back and call river/bet if checked to. Also, he might bluff the river if he has a naked 6 or any two other overs that he peeled the flop with if we check back the turn. Another reason i like checking back is its pretty hard to get two bets from a worse hand, but if we check turn he might make a curiosity call with any pair.

This is actually a decent spot for a bluff turn c/r vs some opponents (straighfwd, non tricky opponents) as they will barrel this turn with a huge % of hands, basically betting any 2 overcards QJ/JT etc and checking something like KK.

If i peeled this flop with a hand like Jh9h id be very tempted to c/r this turn on occasions vs some villains. But like i said, i dont think it works vs good opponents that often

Also I dont think that Ax c/r this turn as often as we might think.

Villain will rarely have stronger that AJ seeing as he hasnt 3bet pf with a weak SB coldcalling in the middle so he does need to be fearful of a better Ax when c/ring this turn vs Hero sometimes

So c/c isnt awful if hero is drawing almost dead with a hand like QJ or KK.

Not sure what you guys think?

I would like it much more if he didn't have 4 outs to chop. Doing a very rough calc I say he has 6 "outs" to lose 1BB and 4 outs to win 2BB with the hands this SP is targetting.

Checking here is pretty standard for me imo.

I would like it much more if he didn't have 4 outs to chop. Doing a very rough calc I say he has 6 "outs" to lose 1BB and 4 outs to win 2BB with the hands this SP is targetting.

And x bluff %?

Now, if his bluff % is the same as a c/r bluff on the turn then betting is way superior but I don't think we get c/r'd bluff on this turn that much at all.

I like the arguments here for cking back, I'm usually too obsessed with value, even in these WA/WB spots though I guess as Sushi mentioned with the extra 4 outs to potentially split it may not be quite so WA/WB. Just wondering what you guys would do here with a set and complete air like JT if checking the A here?

To play devils advocate I guess there could be an argument for bet/calling vs a very laggy-tricky player who may see merit to C/R'ing the A with his own air to rep both a 4 and/or an A hand to punish our bets with overpairs (to the flop) and bluffs with our 9Ts KQ air etc. Not much of an argument though I imagine, you'd probably need a specific read to justify this.

Also we don't always have the best hand. More evidence for the check!

I may be a crazy LAG then because I XR this turn more than I bet the river if villain X. I just don't see people checking back this turn with the intention of folding the river. If they have a weak hand like JT they see the turn as the barelling card from heaven. Also some very poor playing LAG/TAGs (lol ) X behind this turn with weak aces so ones they bet their range becomes polarized.

As I said to Oink on AIM that prompted this thread, I think vs player described our hand is high enough in our value range we can bet/call down, to protect our second barrels.

This might be true. After all, shouldnt we expect that lagbots checkraises this flop with 4x and 3bets his better Ax hand pf?