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Villain in the hand is a solid reg, within the last 5-10 minutes on a different table the following hand went down...

Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 889227
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $205.35
SB: $216.65
Hero (BB): $306.75
UTG: $213.60
CO: $469.85

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with [ X, X ]
2 folds, BTN raises to $6, 1 fold, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($13.00) 6 7 J (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($13.00) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $9.50, BTN calls $9.50

River: ($32.00) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $24, BTN raises to $68, Hero folds

Final Pot: $80.00
BTN wins $78.00
(Rake: $2.00)


Then the hand in question came up.... I've never seen villain overbet before and was quite shocked when he bet like this on the river

BB in the hand seemed like the spot at the table

Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 889228
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $244.65
MP: $536.80
CO: $911.15
BTN: $242.05
Hero (SB): $333.65
BB: $209.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is SB with A Q
1 fold, MP raises to $6, 2 folds, Hero calls $5, BB calls $4

Flop: ($18.00) 4 A Q (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP bets $12, Hero calls $12, BB folds

Turn: ($42.00) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $28, Hero calls $28

River: ($98.00) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $200, Hero ??

Sick...I have no idea, might be able to give better advice if you tell the name of the reg. If you think that's kinda unethical or something though that's fine.

that spot really sucks.
I don't think the hand before has so much of an impact, he basically just rivered his 7 and was happy raising it.

there might be some merit in leading the flop with BB being the spot, but I don't know about villains cbetting tendencies, so I think you made the right play given you had that information ^^

turn is also pretty clear.

but then this weird river betsize.
his value range is so freakin little... 44, QQ and AA basically, which are 5 combos at all.
I don't think he has too many 77 and 22 in his range, most people check behind such a board 3way with them, cause they have no room to improve (other than the 2 outs).

and if he has those hands I just don't see any sense in betting so big.
I mean if he is doing it for value, its mostly because he thinks that you have a very strong hand that you don't want to fold, but in this hand you didn't 3bet pre and you only c/called 2 streets, so no reasons to read your hand as very strong (he might be expecting you to 3bet AQ some of the time).
especially in a deep spot where people tend to play more straight forwardly.
And 200$ just makes no sense for a thinking value bet, why not make it 190$ which looks far less strong psycholocically (don't know if thats spelled right, lol)?

But if he is bluffing why take such a expensive line when the hands you want to fold out aren't actually that big?

Given that there are more reasons that speak against value betting than against bluffing I just call.

that spot really sucks.
I don't think the hand before has so much of an impact, he basically just rivered his 7 and was happy raising it.

I realize that the previous hand is not an irregular hand and that 7x is definitely a large part of his range

The reason I think it is interesting is b/c in villains mind, he just made me fold in a spot where i had tanked a bit, (forgot to mention the tanking part in the OP), and therefore, he may be somewhat more likely to take this line for value, thinking that since he just made me fold a hand i probably didnt really want to fold, that i may be more likely to look him up in this spot now

w/ regards to the sizing, i think its totally awful as a bluff b/c it has no more fold equity than a smaller overbet, like 140-150

w/ regards to the sizing, i think its totally awful as a bluff b/c it has no more fold equity than a smaller overbet, like 140-150

wanted to say exactly that in my previous post, but deleted it and forgot to write it again somehow ^^ should have been under the question why he should take such an expensive line as a bluff.

but it just still doesn't make any sense for value also.
we 3bet AA/QQ pretty much always preflop, it makes a lot of sense to 3bet AQ also (the bad player in the BB is basically the main reason why we just call).

if he is value betting AA he has to count on us having 44, AQ or A2s = 5 combos, in reality 4,5 combos, cause we 3bet AQ some of the time and even if he doesn't realize A2s is just far less of a call than AQ, so we also have to discount A2s.

if he is value betting 44 this big he has to be counting on us having A4 (1 combo),AQ (9 combos) and some A2s (3 combos) so maximum of 13 combos and don't forget to discount the AQ and A2s, so lets just say its 10 combos.

if he is value betting QQ, we could call with 44 (3 combos), AQ (1 combo), A2s (3 combos) = 7 combos of which we have to discount some A2s and AQ, so lets just say about 6 combos.

(ok we could add A7s probably some of the time, make it one combo each, still not much we could call with)

whereas he loses value from AJ, AT, A3s, A5s and probably some other Axs.

having AA this is not that big of a deal, cause there are so little combos of Ax, so this would be the hand value betting this big would made most sense.
but having QQ or 44 this is just a lot of combos and I doubt he can compensate for that with the times he gets called betting this big (remember, we are tanking with AQ! but I just tried to look at it from his perspective).

/edited basically the whole post ^^
please read it again if you already read it while I was editing.

I agree w/ a fair amount of what you are saying, I'd like to make a few points though


he should not be considering the times we have 44 (if he has QQ or AA) because all this bet accomplishes is getting me to flat, instead of c/r which i would in this spot w 44 had he bet a normal amount. I would mostly likely c/r AQ as well had he bet a normal amount, so overbetting doesnt get extra value from 44 or AQ for the most part



also, when you talk about us calling w A2s, in my mind there is really no difference between A2 and A8 in this spot, b/c he never shows up w hands that A2 can beat, but AT can not IMO. he is not going to be taking this line w AK or AJ

seems like he either has me beat, or is on a ridiculous bluff, if hes on a ridiculous bluff i would expect to see a missed gutshot to broadway unless he just likes to barrel with zero equity, and i'm not aware that he would do that

good points.
especially the one that you would most likely c/r 44 and AQ, didn't think of that

makes me even more inclined to call.

I hate to over simplify the conversation, but I think you're leveling yourself into calling here based on inconsequential history and that is like the most obvious set in the word IMO.

easy fold imo

Your range is uncapped and quite strong so would be insane to make a huge value overbet with worse. He is prob hoping dat you are a bit paranoid after the previous hand and that you might hero with some TP hand. But since he cannot discount monsters from his range he cannot do this for value with worse.

to direstr88 and hielko

i do believe this is a fold, it might not be the easiest fold to make in game, but my instant reaction was definitely to fold, and it would be a ridiculous spot for this to ever be a value bet w/ worse, or a bluff

so

whats the worst hand youd call here with?
would you call w 44?

I'm going to get laughed at for saying this, but both bottom set and 2 pair are probably a fold if his range is as nutted as I think it is that deep. I think he's got the effective nuts here, either AA, QQ or 77 assuming you 3bet AA and QQ pre-flop and you hold 444.

so if we fold 44 we fold basically every single time.

Yeah, I think you need QQQ to call this after looking at it in Pstove, I'm pretty sure whatever villain is shoving here is beating any 2 pair and likely bottom set.

This deep, I think it's "ok" to fold it, altho' IRL I'd probably "WTF Call" to be honest.