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Full Tilt Poker $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 161306
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UTG: $2.81
MP: $9.17
Hero (CO): $13.38
BTN: $6.44
SB: $10.00
BB: $15.06

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with 7 6
UTG calls $0.10, MP raises to $0.45, Hero raises to $1.60,

UTG is 54/15, MP raiser is 41/20. UTG has been making standard raises with his big card hands, and limping trash like 42s. MP hasn't really got out of line postflop. I think this is a profitable steal situation because MP is probably aware of how often UTG has been limp/folding or limp/caliing --fold to flop bet. The fact that 76s plays well postflop also helps even though I am setting myself up for a difficult SPR if called.

Edit: Does UTG's small stack make anyone fearful of the 3bet? I think my read is strong enough here where I think he is never limp/shoving.

You said this line like this info is out there and "known". Have I just missed it or are you teasing a sequel already?

No this isn't published anywhere that I am aware of. No sequel, although we'll probably add material to SSNL in the coming months.

Here is a hand where I definitely step out of my comfort zone, but I think I picked a good spot. This may be total spew.

Full Tilt Poker $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 161329
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (MP): $10.00
CO: $11.09
BTN: $18.14
SB: $3.88
BB: $5.69
UTG: $21.85

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP with A T
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, BTN raises to $1.35, 2 folds, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $3.10, BTN calls $1.75

Flop: ($6.35) 7 6 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $6.35


Villain is 24/19/4.7 @885 hands. 3bet range is 10%. I decide to turn my hand into a bluff, which may be the mistake in this hand, but I don't feel comfortable playing ATo OOP against his 3bet range because I have 40% equity in a bloated pot where I am easily dominated. I elect to push my steal equity to the maximum hear in but in the minimum 4bet size that I think will be effective and still give good odds.

After he calls my 4bet I feel safe putting him on AK,AQs type hands, maybe QQ, and probably not AA and KK because I would expect a shove from him PF. I decide to go AI because I don't want to make a half pot bet and make him think he has fold equity with AK. The flop connects with zero of his range so only overpairs can really continue. QQ might fold, and KK and AA are unlikely so I think this is a profitable shove. He was playing 8 tables at the time and I think many TAG-stat gridners will play AK like this at NL10. Am I discounting the possibility of AA and KK too much?

I actually make it 2.5 times on the button against really tight players (FBB 80%+) with pretty much any two. You make it 3 times and were thinking about making it even more because they play fit or fold poker. What do you think is optimal? 2.5 times gives us better odds on our steal, 3 or more makes our cbet more profitable if it works. They will call us with a tight range, so we might not have as much FE as we think on the flop, even when they play fit-or-fold.

I disagree with your last sentence. I think any calling range he might have is going to be folding the flop most of the time. He knows I'm attacking the blinds nearly every time I get the button, so he defends with more hands than he normally would. Not a wide range at all, mind you, but more than AK and premium pairs that a mega-nit might normally want to play OOP. I was guessing he would play about 20% of his hands, maybe less. I'm still working on transforming range percentages to actual hands.

Even with a tight range like that, I expect to make money when he fit or folds the flop, just based on flop play alone. With his unpaired hands, he only pairs about a third of the time. Most of his pocket pairs will be scared off by overcards. I'm also betting less than the pot on the flop to give myself a good price. If he does call the flop, he's likely to fold if I decide to barrel the turn too.

It depends on how he plays. If he folds most of the time but frequently 3-bets when he defends, 2.5x sounds optimal to me. If he folds nearly everything except premiums and 3-bets those, 2.5x still sounds optimal. But, if he folds around 80%, 3-bets QQ+ and AK, and calls to play fit or fold with the rest, raising bigger is optimal because he's folding the flop to a less than pot bet over half the time. I would want him to call the bigger raise so I make more when he folds the flop. And if I just steal the blinds, that's awesome too.

You can find basically the same discussion in the book at the bottom of page 39, starting on the last paragraph (Page 40/306 on the PDF). I decided to write it out in my own words to help get it stuck in my brain.

Thanks for asking the question. Looking it up reminded me of some important things that I had forgotten.

A couple examples from last night.

First hand this would normally be a standard 3 bet for me preflop, but the villian had a very high cbet percentage (but relatively tight otherwise postflop) so I thought I'd flat here and then try to take it away later if I miss. The flop was dry and I figured he's cbetting 100% here. The side benefit here is doing this a little more frequently probably helps balance my flop raising range which I think leans more toward strong hands.

Hand #1
Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 161209
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $38.15
Hero (BTN): $31.80
SB: $25.10
BB: $26.00
UTG: $24.15

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with J A
1 fold, CO raises to $1, Hero calls $1, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.35) 4 3 2 (2 players)
CO bets $1.25, Hero raises to $5, CO folds

Final Pot: $4.85
Hero wins $4.65
(Rake: $0.20)

This one isn't exactly a steal (he's never folding a J or 9), but I do think we are chopping quite often here so it's a 1/2 pot steal.

Hand #2
Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 161210
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $70.30
BTN: $4.15
SB: $25.00
Hero (BB): $25.00
UTG: $10.75
MP: $27.60

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with A Q
4 folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero raises to $1, SB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.00) J J 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.25, SB calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.50) 9 (2 players)
SB bets $2.25, Hero raises to $6, SB folds

Final Pot: $9.00
Hero wins $8.60
(Rake: $0.40)

View all 2 hands

I like your raise sizing on these hands.

We didn't publish the stuff I wrote about hand trees, dead money, the equity of folding, and understanding which lines make money and which don't. (By "line" here I mean something like raise preflop, get called, c-bet flop.) One critical example from that is most lines that result in a c-bet bluff do not make a profit. Under typical game conditions, you get called too often for the hand to show an overall profit, but there is enough dead money in the pot that the c-bet bluff is "correct." So c-bet bluffing is a lose-less play instead of a make-money play. And yes, there is a difference.

I was thinking about this, and based on these assumptions (if I understand them correctly), it seems that people who habitually c-bet full pot are just lighting money on fire.

I was thinking about this, and based on these assumptions (if I understand them correctly), it seems that people who habitually c-bet full pot are just lighting money on fire.

My cbet% is close to 80 and I bet 3/4 pot on most connected boards and 1/2-2/3 on dry boards. Do you think this is a leak?

Oh, and I wanted to throw in a SB steal as well. The player to my left had a VPIP of around 11, so he got 3x'd every time it was folded to me in the SB. Previously, I didn't want to end up OOP with a weak hand in a spot that looked like I was stealing, I always used to just fold my garbage in the SB.



Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 160946
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $27.15
BTN: $40.50
Hero (SB): $34.75
BB: $25.15
UTG: $15.70
MP: $13.40

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with T 7
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold

Final Pot: $0.50
Hero wins $0.50

I've been doing stuff like this more and more. Even at NL10, if I only learned to steal more from SSNLHE, I could probably make my money back over 50k hands just from that. It doesn't hurt that Matt bought the book for me, either.

The stealing section is very good. For those that have watched Baluga's videos the discussion on choosing bet sizes based on who is in the blinds reminds me a lot about his talks about leverage and creating dead money. We raise to smaller sizes against those likely to 3bet etc so we leverage less of our stack to take down the blinds. Against blinds that call a lot but play fir/fold we actively create dead money by raising to a bigger size, knowing most of the time the opponent will check/fold so we create a bigger pot to win.

These concepts can apply to all streets

If he does call the flop, he's likely to fold if I decide to barrel the turn too.

If he folds most of the time but frequently 3-bets when he defends, 2.5x sounds optimal to me. If he folds nearly everything except premiums and 3-bets those, 2.5x still sounds optimal. But, if he folds around 80%, 3-bets QQ+ and AK, and calls to play fit or fold with the rest, raising bigger is optimal because he's folding the flop to a less than pot bet over half the time. I would want him to call the bigger raise so I make more when he folds the flop. And if I just steal the blinds, that's awesome too.

Thanks, you brought up some good points, even though they are in the book. We can sometimes barrel in good spots and the raise size depends on his 3bet-call ratio.

Has anyone else realized the huge huge profit potential from checking how many tables certain TAGs are playing? Whenever someone sits down with stats like 17/16 I check how many tables they are playing. I have a TAG on each of my tables I am playing now playing 8-12 tables. One has a fold to 3bet at 94 @650 hands and one is at 100 @120 hands. These players are not watching their tables and have no clue I am 3betting with any two cards.

And when I have a big hand I call their raise and call their inevitable cbet and know I am ahead a huge portion of the time even with A-high

Page 23.

1. Position. You have 7♣ 6♣ on the button in a tough 6-handed
$1–$2 online game with $200 (100bb) stacks. One player raises to $6.
You are very unlikely to have the best hand. But you are in good
shape to steal. You reraise to $24. Everyone folds. Or, alternatively,
your opponent calls and checks to you on the flop. You bet $35. He
folds

I never 3bet a hand like 76s , the hand has more postflop value than preflop value , this is a light 3bet , we are hoping villian will fold and we get to steal the pot preflop

But if villian does call our 3bet we can assign a range to him as long as we have some sort of read , i can only assume that since we are 3betting light we either just sat down at the table or we have a read

Our equity with a hand like 78s vs a 3bet calling range is very poor , id much rather have Ax's or Kx's in this spot where we have a much better chance to hit top pair and our equity is larger
Vs TAG CO range a hand like 78s has about 35-40% equity where a hand like A7s has about 50% equity

SC with low equity play much better with a high SPR with lots of implied odds , where A7s hand has better equity , will make TP more often which is what you generaly look for in a 3bet pot

So why choose a hand like 78s to 3bet light with ??
why not something of high card value ??

Wouldnt it be nicer to have something to fall back on if our steal preflop doesnt work

My cbet% is close to 80 and I bet 3/4 pot on most connected boards and 1/2-2/3 on dry boards. Do you think this is a leak?

If those were your only considerations, I would say yes. Before I explain that, let me get clarify my original statement.

When I said people who always bet full pot, I literally meant always bet full pot if they were the PFR and the pot is heads up.

Examples:
789 two tone board. Pot it.
223 rainbow board. Pot it.
Playing a pot with super fish. Pot it.
Playing against a nit who won't call a min bet without top pair. Pot it.

There used to be people in the small stakes area of 2p2 that advocated always betting either full pot or 3/4 pot as a c-bet on any texture in the name of being unexploitable.

In less extreme cases, I'm sure a lot of people just throw out a pot size bet every now and then without really thinking about how much they could really get away with betting.

Back to your question. My guess is that you consider a lot more than just what you listed, just that you weren't thinking about those things when you posted.

Examples of other things to consider when choosing a c-bet size:
SPR
Opponent's tendencies
History
Etc.

Here's something else I'd like to throw out. It's covered in WiltOnTilt's RL Micro NL Grinder series.

Say you're playing against a clueless 45/5 player. Obviously, he doesn't know much about poker. If he did, he wouldn't be playing a 45/5 style. It follows that he's not a great hand reader, as that's a more advanced skill and he doesn't have the basics.

Against a guy like this, you can get away with murder. A lot of these players call on the flop if they have a gutshot or better, but won't take bet sizing into account (some do, so keep an eye on them). So you can just bet half pot (or less, if you think you can get away with it) when you have air and full pot when you want action, and they'll call just about as often. When you are HU against this player, keep doing it until you think they're on to you. The board texture doesn't matter. You aren't likely to push them off any draw or pair on the flop unless you're willing to try an overbet anyway, except maybe on an A high flop, so just save money by betting less with air.

Against such a player, I would contend that frequently c-betting more than you need to is a leak, especially since they'll often be calling you.

And that's my long-winded point.

Page 23.

1. Position. You have 7♣ 6♣ on the button in a tough 6-handed
$1–$2 online game with $200 (100bb) stacks. One player raises to $6.
You are very unlikely to have the best hand. But you are in good
shape to steal. You reraise to $24.

If, and only if his F3b > 65% - in which case I am 3b ATC (emphasis on ANY) with the exception of the top of my range.

OR If he folds to CBET > 60% or so.

Otherwise I agree, 3b suited connectors will only get Baluga to make a note on you and snap off your semi-bluffs with AK (ala his podcast where he talks about this).

Edit: Does UTG's small stack make anyone fearful of the 3bet? I think my read is strong enough here where I think he is never limp/shoving.

If he were a decent short stacker, he'd probably be all over you with a shove. But you've indicated that he's been limp/folding and limp/calling, folding to flop bet. He has no idea how to play a short stack well.

He still may shove here because he figures his cards are pretty good and calling doesn't make much sense when your raise is that big compared to his stack. As a result I wouldn't expect him to have a great hand, but he probably will have your 7-high beat.

I'm not sure how to adjust to short stackers just yet, so that's all I've got. Miller mentioned that there will be some material on how to combat short stackers released in the future for people who bought the book, free of charge. It apparently just wasn't ready at the release of the ebook.