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train2win

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60 posts
Joined 06/2009

I agree, this book has got me concentrating more. Auto pilot used to kick in pretty quickly for me, whether profitable or not. Now thanks to the stealing and profiling sections I am thinking alot more about each hand. Excellent!

About showdown value verses stealing value, it is true that you're using your aces as stealing value in Guit's example. And yes it could be any hand at that moment not AA. However because you do have AA your are not utililising it as a steal. This stealing value will be low because this situation is uncommon. Usually you will be playing AA as the best hand at showdown (hopefully!). However a worse hand like 72 you will have to continually use it as a steal cause you'll very rarely have the best hand. So it has alot more stealing value.

If you covered up you cards on the screen and never looked at them and just stole based on situation every hand would be equal in terms of steal equity.



Well I know this was a straw-man but I disagree. You are playing this hand like a steal because it is unknown to you. But the card itself will hit or miss and even if you are blind betting the hand still is a steal or a value hand.

Posted almost 4 years ago

elcholodeamor

Avatar for elcholodeamor

157 posts
Joined 07/2008

I think the steal vs value hands is to demonstrate that hands are more profitable if we see them both ways, ie. don't just look to flop monsters with 86s.

However, it is certainly a continuum. It is only a mistake .01% of the time to never look for steals with AA, and the same for never going for showdown value with 72o

Posted almost 4 years ago

Langerz

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4817 posts
Joined 02/2007

So it has alot more stealing value.



This is getting nitty I think. But steal equity doesn't matter what the cards are. Steal equity everything to do with the villian, the board, position, how the hand played out, image and past history. The equity of a steal by itself has nothing to do with your cards.

Say we plan to float someone on the flop and steal on the turn if the flush comes. The steal equity in the case is:

Steal equity = size of the pot on the turn * percent of the time it works

It doesn't matter if we have 27o or Aces the steal equity only depends on the size of the pot and how often the play works. The things that changes is the showdown equity of the hand may change and end up being more valuable than the steal equity.

In this case the effective steal equity gets smaller, but the absolute steal equity doesn't change based on your cards.

(even nittier side point the % chance of the play working may change slightly depending on your hand since you could hold blockers that would cause the play to work slightly more often)

Posted almost 4 years ago

Langerz

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4817 posts
Joined 02/2007

I think the steal vs value hands is to demonstrate that hands are more profitable if we see them both ways, ie. don't just look to flop monsters with 86s.

However, it is certainly a continuum. It is only a mistake .01% of the time to never look for steals with AA, and the same for never going for showdown value with 72o



Good point - we're getting on the nitty side of the argument and the important thing to remember is that in every case you should be thinking about both equities - if you aren't you are missing value.

Posted almost 4 years ago

elcholodeamor

Avatar for elcholodeamor

157 posts
Joined 07/2008

Im going to play a session and try to find some hands that will spur good discussion on steal equity vs showdown equity. Hopefully I can find some spots where its between checking down a hand or pushing my steal equity. I challenge anyone else who wants to try this to find a couple spots where they wouldn't have stolen before they read SSNLHE.

Posted almost 4 years ago

mattiesmat

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145 posts
Joined 05/2008

Every hand has both showdown equity and steal equity.

Langerz:
That is probably some of it, but I think really most hands have the same steal equity. (If you covered up you cards on the screen and never looked at them and just stole based on situation every hand would be equal in terms of steal equity.)


I have read the comments so far and think the discussion is interesting. What the authors mean by 'every hand' I think is not cards, but situation. I agree that the cards don't matter for your steal equity, but the situation does. The factors Langerz gave are important: villian, the board, position, how the hand played out, image and past history.

Considering stealing, either preflop or postflop in almost every situation is really eye opening for me. I wouldn't consider opening 32o on the BTN before. Also taking into account how they play postflop is really important. If they play fit-or-fold you can raise, 3bet and cbet a wider range. Interesting stuff.

Looking forward to your hands elcholodeamor!

Posted almost 4 years ago

fishtastic

Avatar for fishtastic

203 posts
Joined 07/2008

New people in the thread that were asking about the schedule, there is a schedule for the first two weeks that I've posted in the thread a couple of times. No one has really commented on it though, so I'm not sure if people are planning to utilize it or not. I'm going to let you guys figure it out and play along.

DonkHero, interesting post. Thank you. I always forget to consider whether the blinds will squeeze or not.

I managed to finish my first quick read through over the weekend. FANTASTIC. Having read it, I consider this book to be worth at least $100 without a second thought. That I got it for $40 is just plain crazy. I think I'll make a post on their official forums to express my gratitude later.

I challenge anyone else who wants to try this to find a couple spots where they wouldn't have stolen before they read SSNLHE.



I'm on it. Playing a short session though, so I can't promise much.

Posted almost 4 years ago

Matt Flynn

Avatar for Matt Flynn

403 posts
Joined 07/2007

Steal equity is greater with 72o than AA because, as pointed out, usually with AA you are betting for value and not trying to steal. However, the concept isn't helpful because:

As cards get weaker usually you lose a lot more in showdown equity than you gain in steal equity.

There are pure stealing situations where showdown value isn't required. The prototypical example is when it is folded to you in the small blind against a very tight big blind. Raise away every time. The steal equity is +EV on its own.

If a steal situation does not have near-positive EV from stealing blinds, it usually requires some showdown equity. (Technically it is when stealing blinds plus c-bet bluffs aren't immediately +EV then you usually need showdown equity.) So raising the button against moderately tight blinds you have enough steal equity that showdown equity doesn't matter. Raising from the cutoff against moderately tight button and blinds usually requires some showdown equity, so you open fewer hands. (Also, the button has such incentive to play that you might fold the bottom few percent of "profitable" hands so he won't adjust and take away a big chunk of profit.)

We didn't publish the stuff I wrote about hand trees, dead money, the equity of folding, and understanding which lines make money and which don't. (By "line" here I mean something like raise preflop, get called, c-bet flop.) One critical example from that is most lines that result in a c-bet bluff do not make a profit. Under typical game conditions, you get called too often for the hand to show an overall profit, but there is enough dead money in the pot that the c-bet bluff is "correct." So c-bet bluffing is a lose-less play instead of a make-money play. And yes, there is a difference.

What this means is unless you make a lot of profit stealing the blinds, you almost always need some backup value (namely, showdown equity) to make playing the hand profitable.

This is where the Theory of Poker approach that "the equity of folding is zero" has messed up a lot of players' thinking about profit and no-limit hands. The equity of folding is NOT zero. It's just that setting it to zero is the best frame of reference to use DURING a hand. But before a hand, when you are thinking about whether to play and how to make a profit, that is a terrible frame of reference. For example, say you fold 72o preflop. That's worth zero right? Ok now you fold aces preflop. That's worth zero too. So if the equity of folding is always zero, folding 72o and folding aces preflop are equivalent. If it is all the same to you, I will take the aces and you can have the 72o. The equity of folding is not inherently zero.

Similarly, folding = zero is a bad frame of reference at the end of a hand. Say everyone is all-in and the pot is $1,000. You have a royal flush. What is the equity of folding? You could say "folding is worth zero and showing the hand is worth $1,000," but a normal brain would think, folding costs me $1,000 since I've obviously won this pot! So for thinking about profit and how to make it, you should give up that frame of reference.

Under usual conditions, when it gets to a c-bet bluff, from there you do not get to overall profit. So you need to think about stealing blinds and hitting flops to "compensate" for the expected loss that results every time you end up missing the flop. Yeah, sometimes they fold so often that c-bet bluffing results in overall profit, but even in current $1-$2 6-max that doesn't occur nearly as often as you might think.

Stealing blinds and making hands are where the money is.

Ok first long tangent over for now. :-)

Matt

Posted almost 4 years ago

fishtastic

Avatar for fishtastic

203 posts
Joined 07/2008

Let's get this party started. Since parameters were not all that specific, I declare stealing on the preflop betting round to be in play, at least for now.

So, after reading the chapter on blind stealing, does anyone else feel like the blinds are just big piles of money? My pupils actually turn into dollar signs like you might see on looney tunes. LOL at my session VPIP under 15 and attempt to steal over 55. I had tight, fit or folding blinds and they were abused every time I had the opportunity.

Here is a couple of hands where I steal on the button with any two, which I wouldn't have ever done before. I could have raised more since they were playing fit or fold, but I elected to stick with a 3x this time while I get a feel for how things were going.


Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 160933
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP: $43.85
CO: $20.00
Hero (BTN): $25.00
SB: $25.00
BB: $25.00
UTG: $36.45

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with 5 Heart T Diamond
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds

Final Pot: $0.60
Hero wins $0.60
(Rake: $0.00)



Party Poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 160938
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP: $29.75
CO: $39.30
Hero (BTN): $27.95
SB: $25.35
BB: $14.10
UTG: $22.75

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with 9 Club 2 Diamond
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds

Final Pot: $0.60
Hero wins $0.60
(Rake: $0.00)


And here's a dandy value-squeeze, which would have just been a tight fold for me before. I call it a value-squeeze because the original raiser was opening 32% of hands with no apparent regard for position, and the caller had a VPIP of 45, so my hand actually favored well against their ranges, though maybe not their ranges for actually calling my 3-bet. I had position and had a really tight image, so I hoped to take it down preflop or bet 2/3 on the flop and take it down if I missed.




Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 160940
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP: $49.25
CO: $15.75
Hero (BTN): $25.00
SB: $5.00
BB: $25.00
UTG: $39.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with T Spade K Spade
1 fold, MP raises to $1, CO calls $1, Hero raises to $4, 4 folds

Final Pot: $3.35
Hero wins $3.35
(Rake: $-0.00)

Posted almost 4 years ago

Langerz

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4817 posts
Joined 02/2007

We didn't publish the stuff I wrote about hand trees, dead money, the equity of folding, and understanding which lines make money and which don't.



You said this line like this info is out there and "known". Have I just missed it or are you teasing a sequel already?

Posted almost 4 years ago

Langerz

Avatar for Langerz

4817 posts
Joined 02/2007

New people in the thread that were asking about the schedule, there is a schedule for the first two weeks that I've posted in the thread a couple of times. No one has really commented on it though, so I'm not sure if people are planning to utilize it or not. I'm going to let you guys figure it out and play along.



In regards to schedule there are a few of us in here raring to go, but I'm guessing there are a few more that will join so we may want to let them join before we go too far.

Maybe just spend some time on elcholodeamor's challenge for a while and then when others join we go. I'm trying the challenge now (and will likely do better once I quit on the forum and pay attention Smile ).

Posted almost 4 years ago

fishtastic

Avatar for fishtastic

203 posts
Joined 07/2008

Oh, and I wanted to throw in a SB steal as well. The player to my left had a VPIP of around 11, so he got 3x'd every time it was folded to me in the SB. Previously, I didn't want to end up OOP with a weak hand in a spot that looked like I was stealing, I always used to just fold my garbage in the SB.



Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 160946
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $27.15
BTN: $40.50
Hero (SB): $34.75
BB: $25.15
UTG: $15.70
MP: $13.40

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with T Spade 7 Heart
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold

Final Pot: $0.50
Hero wins $0.50

Posted almost 4 years ago

fishtastic

Avatar for fishtastic

203 posts
Joined 07/2008

Steal equity is greater with 72o than AA because, as pointed out, usually with AA you are betting for value and not trying to steal. However, the concept isn't helpful because:

As cards get weaker usually you lose a lot more in showdown equity than you gain in steal equity.

There are pure stealing situations where showdown value isn't required. The prototypical example is when it is folded to you in the small blind against a very tight big blind. Raise away every time. The steal equity is +EV on its own.

If a steal situation does not have near-positive EV from stealing blinds, it usually requires some showdown equity. (Technically it is when stealing blinds plus c-bet bluffs aren't immediately +EV then you usually need showdown equity.) So raising the button against moderately tight blinds you have enough steal equity that showdown equity doesn't matter. Raising from the cutoff against moderately tight button and blinds usually requires some showdown equity, so you open fewer hands. (Also, the button has such incentive to play that you might fold the bottom few percent of "profitable" hands so he won't adjust and take away a big chunk of profit.)

We didn't publish the stuff I wrote about hand trees, dead money, the equity of folding, and understanding which lines make money and which don't. (By "line" here I mean something like raise preflop, get called, c-bet flop.) One critical example from that is most lines that result in a c-bet bluff do not make a profit. Under typical game conditions, you get called too often for the hand to show an overall profit, but there is enough dead money in the pot that the c-bet bluff is "correct." So c-bet bluffing is a lose-less play instead of a make-money play. And yes, there is a difference.

What this means is unless you make a lot of profit stealing the blinds, you almost always need some backup value (namely, showdown equity) to make playing the hand profitable.

This is where the Theory of Poker approach that "the equity of folding is zero" has messed up a lot of players' thinking about profit and no-limit hands. The equity of folding is NOT zero. It's just that setting it to zero is the best frame of reference to use DURING a hand. But before a hand, when you are thinking about whether to play and how to make a profit, that is a terrible frame of reference. For example, say you fold 72o preflop. That's worth zero right? Ok now you fold aces preflop. That's worth zero too. So if the equity of folding is always zero, folding 72o and folding aces preflop are equivalent. If it is all the same to you, I will take the aces and you can have the 72o. The equity of folding is not inherently zero.

Similarly, folding = zero is a bad frame of reference at the end of a hand. Say everyone is all-in and the pot is $1,000. You have a royal flush. What is the equity of folding? You could say "folding is worth zero and showing the hand is worth $1,000," but a normal brain would think, folding costs me $1,000 since I've obviously won this pot! So for thinking about profit and how to make it, you should give up that frame of reference.

Under usual conditions, when it gets to a c-bet bluff, from there you do not get to overall profit. So you need to think about stealing blinds and hitting flops to "compensate" for the expected loss that results every time you end up missing the flop. Yeah, sometimes they fold so often that c-bet bluffing results in overall profit, but even in current $1-$2 6-max that doesn't occur nearly as often as you might think.

Stealing blinds and making hands are where the money is.

Ok first long tangent over for now. :-)

Matt



Great stuff. Thanks for posting it.

Posted almost 4 years ago

mattiesmat

Avatar for mattiesmat

145 posts
Joined 05/2008

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 160933
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP: $43.85
CO: $20.00
Hero (BTN): $25.00
SB: $25.00
BB: $25.00
UTG: $36.45

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with 5 Heart T Diamond
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds

Final Pot: $0.60
Hero wins $0.60
(Rake: $0.00)



Party Poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 160938
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP: $29.75
CO: $39.30
Hero (BTN): $27.95
SB: $25.35
BB: $14.10
UTG: $22.75

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with 9 Club 2 Diamond
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds

Final Pot: $0.60
Hero wins $0.60
(Rake: $0.00)


I actually make it 2.5 times on the button against really tight players (FBB 80%+) with pretty much any two. You make it 3 times and were thinking about making it even more because they play fit or fold poker. What do you think is optimal? 2.5 times gives us better odds on our steal, 3 or more makes our cbet more profitable if it works. They will call us with a tight range, so we might not have as much FE as we think on the flop, even when they play fit-or-fold.

Posted almost 4 years ago

Langerz

Avatar for Langerz

4817 posts
Joined 02/2007

A couple examples from last night.

First hand this would normally be a standard 3 bet for me preflop, but the villian had a very high cbet percentage (but relatively tight otherwise postflop) so I thought I'd flat here and then try to take it away later if I miss. The flop was dry and I figured he's cbetting 100% here. The side benefit here is doing this a little more frequently probably helps balance my flop raising range which I think leans more toward strong hands.

Hand #1
Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 161209
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $38.15
Hero (BTN): $31.80
SB: $25.10
BB: $26.00
UTG: $24.15

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with J Spade A Spade
1 fold, CO raises to $1, Hero calls $1, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.35) 4 Heart 3 Diamond 2 Club (2 players)
CO bets $1.25, Hero raises to $5, CO folds

Final Pot: $4.85
Hero wins $4.65
(Rake: $0.20)

This one isn't exactly a steal (he's never folding a J or 9), but I do think we are chopping quite often here so it's a 1/2 pot steal.

Hand #2
Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 161210
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $70.30
BTN: $4.15
SB: $25.00
Hero (BB): $25.00
UTG: $10.75
MP: $27.60

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with A Club Q Spade
4 folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero raises to $1, SB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.00) J Club J Diamond 9 Spade (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.25, SB calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.50) 9 Diamond (2 players)
SB bets $2.25, Hero raises to $6, SB folds

Final Pot: $9.00
Hero wins $8.60
(Rake: $0.40)

View all 2 hands

Posted almost 4 years ago




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