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Wow. Why did you not include that material? It sounds like really great stuff.

Poker theory doesn't sell books and doesn't go over well with the average reader.

Poker theory doesn't sell books and doesn't go over well with the average reader.

But...but...that's the most important part!

Having someone say, "In situation Y, do X" is great and all, but understanding exactly why X is appropriate for situation Y is where the real money is. Otherwise, when the variables change the player doesn't know how to fully adapt. Worse yet, he may not even realize that he needs to adapt.

I understand your point, and I suppose that it can't be helped. Your average poker ebook consumer isn't likely to change. However, if you have interest in releasing this material, I am positive that there are people who would love to read it.

Exactly.

Interesting. I'd like to take this a bit farther and apply it to the concept of using a larger blind steal raise size due to post-flop expectation from tight blinds who defend by calling and playing fit or fold on the flop.

Let's figure out how often villain has to fold on the flop for us to want to build that bigger pot for the times that he does call and we take it down with a c-bet, when we hold a total junk hand like 72o. For simplicity, let's assume we are on the button, the big blind will call, and the small blind will never interfere. Let's also assume that we are potting the flop as a c-bet.

We raise 4x on the button because we have observed his tendencies and believe that is the most he will call with his normal calling range.

Risk: 4 (our raise)
He calls.
Reward: 4 (his call including the blind) + 0.5 (sb) = 4.5
Pot size: 8.5
Now we pot the flop.
Risk: 4 + 8.5 (flop bet) = 12.5
The reward is still 4.5. We cannot count our contribution to the pot as part of the reward for this calculation. That would be like giving our right hand a $20 bill with our left hand and claiming a profit. It was our money in the first place.
We are risking 12.5 to win 4.5.
In order for this scenario, as-is, to be profitable, villain has to fold the flop about 73.5% of the time.

Are my calculations correct?

I can't see this being feasible for even the nittiest of players. Even a couple of big cards catch a pair about a third of the time. The numbers make it look like we would always favor a smaller blind stealing raise size with the goal of taking it down preflop, and that getting to the flop means we have missed our primary objective and are now just making the best of the situation by c-betting.

Do we rely on astute barreling to turn this situation around?

Poker theory doesn't sell books and doesn't go over well with the average reader.

It would sell it to me. This is exactly what I hunger for. How about a supplement or something?

Page 23.

I never 3bet a hand like 76s , the hand has more postflop value than preflop value , this is a light 3bet , we are hoping villian will fold and we get to steal the pot preflop

But if villian does call our 3bet we can assign a range to him as long as we have some sort of read , i can only assume that since we are 3betting light we either just sat down at the table or we have a read

Our equity with a hand like 78s vs a 3bet calling range is very poor , id much rather have Ax's or Kx's in this spot where we have a much better chance to hit top pair and our equity is larger
Vs TAG CO range a hand like 78s has about 35-40% equity where a hand like A7s has about 50% equity

SC with low equity play much better with a high SPR with lots of implied odds , where A7s hand has better equity , will make TP more often which is what you generaly look for in a 3bet pot

So why choose a hand like 78s to 3bet light with ??
why not something of high card value ??

Wouldnt it be nicer to have something to fall back on if our steal preflop doesnt work

I'd be really interested to hear what people think about this (especially the author(s.) There seems to be a lot of disagreement about the optimal 'light' 3 betting range. Often the argument is made that suited connectors are trash in short stack situations, and that's essentially what you're building if called. Those people tend to like big cards and suited aces, both for their overcards to pairs and possible blockers to big hands. Others say the suited aces have too much value in calling to waste on a 3 bet you'll have to dump often to a 4 bet.

I don't know whats better, but I've seen big winners argue both sides.

I have some decent steal spots to share this time. Today, it looks like I have 3 steals that I think are good, and one that was bad.

Here are the three good steals. I had a seriously maniacal image. I hadn't been going bonkers on the turn or anything, though. Just the flop and preflop because the right circumstances kept presenting themselves (and I picked up some decent hands) and no one would play back with aggression. My preflop stats got up to 39/35 on this table.


Hand #1
Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 162948
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $25.00
Hero (BTN): $27.50
SB: $25.00
BB: $15.60
UTG: $28.85
MP: $15.55

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with K T
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50

The big blind is a 45/24 over 33 hands. I'm raising for value. I don't make it 4x because of his stack size.

Flop: ($1.60) A 6 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1, BB calls $1

Hero misses the flop and fires a c-bet.

Turn: ($3.60) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.25, BB folds

Hero picks up a gutshot and fires another barrel. I think this will knock out any underpairs or weak pairs that didn't believe me on the flop. Villain folds. Decent?

Final Pot: $3.60
Hero wins $3.45
(Rake: $0.15)

Hand #2
Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 162949
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $25.00
Hero (SB): $29.30
BB: $25.00
UTG: $15.20
MP: $29.25
CO: $13.35

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with J A
2 folds, CO raises to $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.65, 1 fold

Villain is 18/16, attempt to steal 44 over 47 hands. Hero is a bit torn between calling and 3-betting due to villain's stack size. If he 3-bets a standard size, he can't c-bet without commiting himself. If he 3-bets enough to put villain all-in, he's scared of the BB waking up with a hand, and potentially only getting called by worse from the PFR. He elects to call.

Flop: ($1.75) 4 K K (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.50, Hero raises to $12, CO folds

Hero flops a flush draw on an otherwise barren board and lets villain make the easy c-bet and then re-raises all-in to max fold equity, and potentially even get called by a worse ace high. Remember that Hero has a crazy image.

Final Pot: $4.75
Hero wins $4.55
(Rake: $0.20)

View all 2 hands


Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 162961
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $30.45
Hero (SB): $37.90
BB: $51.90
UTG: $25.45
MP: $4.85
CO: $8.90

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with J K
UTG calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.75

This is the same light defending BB villain as before.

Flop: ($2.25) 5 4 T (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, UTG calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.75) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $3.25, UTG folds

All of the draws miss the turn, an overcard falls, and Hero picks up an open-ended straight draw. If Hero pairs the river, it's likely to be the best hand as well. Hero fires again and takes it down.

Final Pot: $4.75
Hero wins $4.55
(Rake: $0.20)


Hero got coolered at the end of his awesome session, but he stands proud. He won 5.85 in non-showdown winnings today over 161 hands at 25nl. More importantly, Hero is getting considerably better at playing a stealing-oriented style when the situation calls for it, and he's making smarter barrels instead of just shoving in chips with no good reason.

DonkHero,

If, and only if his F3b > 65% - in which case I am 3b ATC (emphasis on ANY) with the exception of the top of my range.

Why 65%?

Nice hands Fishtastic , hand number 2 tho , why not call ? villian is short stacked so im sure hes going to call here with any PP , he will give up on the turn most likely without a pair , so by pushing your only getting called by pairs and you need to suckout , but by calling ul get to see a cheap turn card , villian will most likely give up without a pair on turn , giving you a cheaper price on your steal

Nice hands Fishtastic , hand number 2 tho , why not call ? villian is short stacked so im sure hes going to call here with any PP , he will give up on the turn most likely without a pair , so by pushing your only getting called by pairs and you need to suckout , but by calling ul get to see a cheap turn card , villian will most likely give up without a pair on turn , giving you a cheaper price on your steal

I have a few reasons.

I actually think he'll fold some small pocket pairs sometimes because he's afraid of being dominated by a bigger pocket pair. I'm not in bad shape at all if he calls, but I make more money when he folds them.

I'm OOP, so villain gets to see what I will do on the turn first. He can shove with turn with air after I check again just becuase I checked to him twice on a paired board. Or if he bets smaller he may feel committed to call with high cards if I shove over him on the turn. He can make a better hand on the turn and also check behind the turn and get another chance to make a better hand on the river. I think having him fold the flop is better than anything that can possibly happen when he gets to see a turn.

Also, his attempt to steal is high, so I think he's much more likely to have two unpaired cards right now than a pair.

DonkHero,



Why 65%?

~65% is the magical breakeven mark where he is folding so much that we can play 3b or fold and still profit. The math is out there somewhere.

~65% is the magical breakeven mark where he is folding so much that we can play 3b or fold and still profit. The math is out there somewhere.

I would have thought it would be about 75% for the times we are doing it as a pure bluff. When we raise pot vs a raiser we are risking about 3 - 1. This doesn't take into account the times when villain calls and we land a miracle flop with our junk hand.

Hero 3-bet bluff shoves (you could call it a value bet if you wanted) the flop vs a mid-stacked hyper-aggressive monkey. I only had about 12 hands on him, but he was 45/36, had already 3-bet someone, and had 100% aggression frequency. Summary: Loose cannon playing garbage.

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 163894
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $40.55
UTG: $25.00
Hero (MP): $46.70
CO: $18.10
BTN: $25.00
SB: $14.30

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with A J
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold

I could have raised more, but since he was the loosest at the table, I targeted him as my likely opponent, and his stack size and tendencies made me want to raise smaller.

Flop: ($1.75) 8 3 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB raises to $3, Hero raises to $15, SB folds

Final Pot: $7.75
Hero wins $7.40
(Rake: $0.35)

Is there anyway to save my password to the ebook into adobe so I dont have to open my gmail--find the password--copy/paste the password?

No but you can easily set things up so you don't have to enter the password every time.

Here is the method posted by New York Jet on 2+2. KEEP IN MIND that when you get the update in a week or two you will have to change the password AND change the name from SSNLHE_1_0.pdf to SSNLHE_1_1.pdf (or whatever Ed calls version 1.1).

A better option is AutoHotKey, which is free. Here is an AHK script to enter the password for you.

For Software Forum noobs…
1. Install AutoHotKey by downloading the AutoHotKey Installer at http://www.autohotkey.com/download/
2. Copy and paste the code below in to Notepad
3. Put your SSNLHE password in line #1 (replaces your-password)
4. Save As SSNLHE.ahk in the same folder as your SSNLHE pdf file
5. Double click the .ahk file

Code:

SSNLHEPassword = your-password ;Replace your-password with SSNLHE password
Run, SSNLHE_1_0.pdf
WinWaitActive, Adobe,, 2
Sleep 1000
WinWaitActive, Password,, 2
ControlSetText, RICHEDIT50W1, %SSNLHEPassword%, Password
ControlClick, Button1, Password

It would sell it to me. This is exactly what I hunger for. How about a supplement or something?

I am going to point Sunny and Ed to this. They put the kibosh on my theory stuff. :-)

Interesting. I'd like to take this a bit farther and apply it to the concept of using a larger blind steal raise size due to post-flop expectation from tight blinds who defend by calling and playing fit or fold on the flop.

Let's figure out how often villain has to fold on the flop for us to want to build that bigger pot for the times that he does call and we take it down with a c-bet, when we hold a total junk hand like 72o. For simplicity, let's assume we are on the button, the big blind will call, and the small blind will never interfere. Let's also assume that we are potting the flop as a c-bet.

We raise 4x on the button because we have observed his tendencies and believe that is the most he will call with his normal calling range.

Risk: 4 (our raise)
He calls.
Reward: 4 (his call including the blind) + 0.5 (sb) = 4.5
Pot size: 8.5
Now we pot the flop.
Risk: 4 + 8.5 (flop bet) = 12.5
The reward is still 4.5. We cannot count our contribution to the pot as part of the reward for this calculation. That would be like giving our right hand a $20 bill with our left hand and claiming a profit. It was our money in the first place.
We are risking 12.5 to win 4.5.
In order for this scenario, as-is, to be profitable, villain has to fold the flop about 73.5% of the time.

Are my calculations correct?

Right idea but your calculations are only correct if you never steal the blinds preflop. Instead, you WILL steal the blinds. Now you treat the 8.5bb as dead money and calculate based on that to see if flop-betting is right. Usually it will be, but you only show an overall profit (meaning ending the hand with more money than you begin it with) if opponent folds to your pot-sized c-bet less than 4.5/(8.5+8.5) = < 4.5/17, which is less than 26.5% of the time. If he does fold that often then the line shows an overall profit. Otherwise you would normally want to raise less preflop if your opponents fold roughly the same to the smaller preflop raise.

Was that too convoluted? Where's Anna (our editor) when I need her? ;-)