---

Poker Video: Limit Hold'Em by Joe Tall (Mid Stakes)

Click yes obv. and click on your new seat.

Click yes obv. and click on your new seat.

DOH, Just realized I click the x on the window when I'm ready to leave, I have never clicked stand up, lol. THX!

Let's say a guy sits down at a table and raises the first two hands he is dealt, the chance that that guy is a maniac probably just went from like 0.1% to at least 10%.

Is it Mathematics of Poker has some good stuff on this?

Time Link to 00:34:50

In this spot with QTo vs a 3 bet and cap from passives preflop, I would typically call the cap and then c/f the flop. DD advises folding preflop.

I'd obviously be very cautious though because even if I hit my queen, I'll never know where I'm at in the hand because of domination. Honestly, when I call here I'm hoping to hit a straight, 2 pair or trips, but it's mostly because of straight potential.

Now...there are not a whole lot of straights you can make with QT, so maybe I have been wrong all along about calling in these spots.

Do you advise calling preflop with QJo? J9o (assume a misclick preflop)? What about JTo?

The flop c/f I agree with completely in this QT hand. I enjoyed Death Donkey's "that's a terrible call" ranting.

In this spot with QTo vs a 3 bet and cap from passives preflop, I would typically call the cap and then c/f the flop. DD advises folding preflop.

I'd obviously be very cautious though because even if I hit my queen, I'll never know where I'm at in the hand because of domination. Honestly, when I call here I'm hoping to hit a straight, 2 pair or trips, but it's mostly because of straight potential.

Now...there are not a whole lot of straights you can make with QT, so maybe I have been wrong all along about calling in these spots.

Do you advise calling preflop with QJo? J9o (assume a misclick preflop)? What about JTo?

The flop c/f I agree with completely in this QT hand. I enjoyed Death Donkey's "that's a terrible call" ranting.

Personally I'd fold almost all off suit hands apart from the obvious AK/AQ, even AQ isn't amazing here but there's a chance the SB capper is a bad lag type who isn't paying attention to how tight the 3bettor is and so could be capping some pretty hands like 77/KQ.
I'd call with all suited hands and PP's.

What do people think about completing with us holding something like KQo or AJo here?

Is it Mathematics of Poker has some good stuff on this?

Yep!

DOH, Just realized I click the x on the window when I'm ready to leave, I have never clicked stand up, lol. THX!

It's good to teach the coaches something, imo.

Time Link to 00:37:50

Agree that calling entire range out of BB and not 3betting is missing value in today's games. I was doing this for a while and came to the same conclusion a couple weeks ago and have started 3betting.

Shrug, when you don't know someone and all you have to go on are a few statistics / actions without a lot of showdowns, you make some assumptions. I think people in general are way too slow to make adaptations to what they see.

Let's say a guy sits down at a table and raises the first two hands he is dealt, the chance that that guy is a maniac probably just went from like 0.1% to at least 10%.

You guys have information I didn't have, you know the 5/10 full tilt regulars, obviously that is useful information, but the next time you see a guy who you don't know, try to keep in mind what I was saying so you don't miss out on a potentially hugely profitable situation. What's the worst thing that happens? You spew in position vs a good player? It will be fun at least.

While I agree on making adjustments on time, I think in this case you fell into the trap of overadjusting. There were some hints the "maniac" could be in fact a reasonable player:

1. He bought in for 50BB.
2. He waited for his BB to post.
3. He had auto-rebuy on.

Furthermore on his first hand he folded his BB vs CO open, and on his second hand he completed his SB vs CO open limp and x/f the flop 3way. The next two hands her raises on the BU and the CO when folded to him in a 5handed game. I don't see any deviant behaviour that would justify a 3bet w/ K5s.

Another thing is the interpretation of stats. I think what misled DD was JTs assessment of c0rfiot as a maniac and very aggro HUD stats from 6 hands from an earlier session. JTs HUD looks like the unmodified default, so I assume he didn't use any of the advanced features. In this case PT3 won't filter for 2max, 3-4max and 5-6max. You have to do this manually as described here. So this aggro stats cound easily be the result of a very shorthanded game.

Time Link to 00:43:10

I'm surprised that, after you kinda agreed on c0rfiot probably not beeing a maniac, you still think he is the worst player at the table. I mean neither did he openlimp, coldcall or showdown any non-legitimate hands nor did he misplay (m)any hands that went to SD. I think you misread the situation somewhat based on his highish VPIP/PFR: it's him who has the godseat at the table, with tight players behind him and bad players on his right.

Come on guys; what's the point of berating DD and Joe Tall over a misread (which was more or less corrected by the end of the video anyways)? Given Corfiot's stats, even when he was well into the double digits hand sample, I'd have the same read these dudes did without prior knowledge of Corfiot. Sometimes a new, solid player comes in and runs hot as hell and it takes a long time for his stats and your reads to normalize. It happens and is just part of variance.

Let's talk about that QTo fold preflop when it was capped by the passives behind him. That discussion may actually help improve our games.

I think the fold is pretty standard, the reverse domination potential is just too high, we're OOP, our hand is unsuited, a lot of the straights we want to make, our opponents likely have blockers in their hands, I think you're c/f the flop way too often. I am not folding a suited hand, pairs or AJ-AK, KQ in that spot unless I have a particular read, but often with QTo we will have 3 ours or less.

Possibly the fold is standard enough for the others to ignore it, tbh I thought it was pretty funny as well because both players they thought were fish are actually l/tags.

Come on guys; what's the point of berating DD and Joe Tall over a misread (which was more or less corrected by the end of the video anyways)? Given Corfiot's stats, even when he was well into the double digits hand sample, I'd have the same read these dudes did without prior knowledge of Corfiot. Sometimes a new, solid player comes in and runs hot as hell and it takes a long time for his stats and your reads to normalize. It happens and is just part of variance.

I'm sorry if I made the impression I wanted to berate someone. I thought there were some points not mentioned so far that are often overlooked, although they are common knowledge.

Let's talk about that QTo fold preflop when it was capped by the passives behind him. That discussion may actually help improve our games.

Not sure if there is much to talk about here. DD is dead on with his analysis, imo.

In this spot with QTo vs a 3 bet and cap from passives preflop, I would typically call the cap and then c/f the flop. DD advises folding preflop.

I'd obviously be very cautious though because even if I hit my queen, I'll never know where I'm at in the hand because of domination. Honestly, when I call here I'm hoping to hit a straight, 2 pair or trips, but it's mostly because of straight potential.

Now...there are not a whole lot of straights you can make with QT, so maybe I have been wrong all along about calling in these spots.

Do you advise calling preflop with QJo? J9o (assume a misclick preflop)? What about JTo?

The flop c/f I agree with completely in this QT hand. I enjoyed Death Donkey's "that's a terrible call" ranting.

What do people think about completing with us holding something like KQo or AJo here?

I think it all boils down to a simple math question. We're getting 5.5:1 on our call preflop. So we need 18.18% equity to call here. (Probably a little bit more since we have to overcome our positional disadvantage in the sandwich.) Assuming tight ranges we get the following:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
QTo 17.14% (100,740 wins, 4,922 ties)
AA-TT, AK 42.56% (231,602 wins, 48,162 ties)
AA-TT, AK, AQs 40.30% (217,955 wins, 48,429 ties)

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
QTs 21.27% (125,538 wins, 4,848 ties)
AA-TT, AK 40.38% (219,875 wins, 45,530 ties)
AA-TT, AK, AQs 38.36% (207,559 wins, 45,882 ties)

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
QJo 18.27% (107,737 wins, 4,491 ties)
AA-TT, AK 41.90% (227,762 wins, 48,087 ties)
AA-TT, AK, AQs 39.83% (215,181 wins, 48,322 ties)

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
QJs 22.23% (131,546 wins, 4,343 ties)
AA-TT, AK 39.82% (216,770 wins, 45,044 ties)
AA-TT, AK, AQs 37.95% (205,437 wins, 45,281 ties)

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
JTo 17.58% (103,405 wins, 4,899 ties)
AA-TT, AK 42.13% (229,508 wins, 47,276 ties)
AA-TT, AK, AQs 40.29% (218,465 wins, 47,206 ties)

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
JTs 21.53% (127,183 wins, 4,767 ties)
AA-TT, AK 40.11% (218,801 wins, 44,404 ties)
AA-TT, AK, AQs 38.36% (208,355 wins, 44,294 ties)

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
J9o 16.68% (98,728 wins, 3,375 ties)
AA-TT, AK 42.52% (234,667 wins, 41,527 ties)
AA-TT, AK, AQs 40.80% (224,454 wins, 41,398 ties)

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
J9s 20.60% (122,328 wins, 3,274 ties)
AA-TT, AK 40.49% (223,569 wins, 39,372 ties)
AA-TT, AK, AQs 38.91% (214,155 wins, 39,296 ties)

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
KQo 16.51% (97,092 wins, 4,805 ties)
AA-TT, AK 42.83% (238,778 wins, 37,275 ties)
AA-TT, AK, AQs 40.66% (225,664 wins, 37,422 ties)

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
AJo 16.49% (95,038 wins, 9,355 ties)
AA-TT, AK 42.88% (238,655 wins, 38,706 ties)
AA-TT, AK, AQs 40.63% (224,948 wins, 39,191 ties)

(Sorry for this whole mess.) So we should fold J9o, JTo, QTo, KQo, AJo and call J9s, JTs, QTs, QJs vs these opponents. QJo is basically neutral EV.

I'm sorry if I made the impression I wanted to berate someone. I thought there were some points not mentioned so far that are often overlooked, although they are common knowledge.

I didn't take it that way, I think you made some really good points about observations that would have been relevant. This whole discussion (here in the thread, afterwards) I am sort of just using the player on our right as an exercise for thinking about how to deal with a player like that in general, whether in this case it was a misread or not. I think that's the best way to get educational value out of the situation / somewhat funny mischaracterization of that player.