---

Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by jk3a (Mid Stakes)

Time Link to 00:44:21

Isn't a 28/28, 100cbet guy likely a player who's not going to believe a CR on this kind of board? He may not be the handreader/TAG type, but he's likely to be suspicious of BS because he's full of BS alot.

Great series guys. I wish jk3a's coaching rate was 90 an hour or less ^^. He breaks down everything really well.

and what about K2+?

do some math and let me know what you find out

Why is the quiz hand only call or fold?
Aha! Since you can theoretically raise any hand that you are folding, the answer must be call!

No, just kidding, but could you maybe adress in the next video if raising could be good against a reg (obv bluffing a 36/26 guy would probably be bad but...) ?

I will try and remember to do that. recording tomorrow

Isn't a 28/28, 100cbet guy likely a player who's not going to believe a CR on this kind of board? He may not be the handreader/TAG type, but he's likely to be suspicious of BS because he's full of BS alot.

think most will be suspicious and most won't do anything about it

For the quiz:

If you ask me, it's not even close...this is a fold. There aren't any worse hands that could ever vbet like this, and there are very few missed draws compared to hands that pull ahead of hero on the river. Villain shows up with at least a straight (mostly Ax) and sometimes a boat, or even poorly played quads much too often to call profitably.

In fact, even if villain NEVER slowplays and ALWAYS bluffed the few missed draws in his range like heart suited connectors 8h7h-QhJh, snapping them off wouldn't make up for the times villain shows up with rivered straights and boats, with which this line makes perfect sense given he is a loose-aggressive, habitual post flop calling station.


Here's my more in-depth reasoning:

The question seems rather straight forward-does he have more nut hands like straights and boats in his range on the river than missed draws and worse 1 pair hands? This really turns out to be a logic and math question. Let's look at all the hands that beat us first and remove those he cannot have in his range:

He should never have better overpairs as they will certainly 3bet pre. We can also greatly discount 54s since he didn't donk or ch/raise the flop on this drawy board, especially given there are only 2 combos of 54s left and he's calling from the SB. 33 should be leading or ch/raising the flop 100% of the time to pump money into the pot. 66 has excellent equity against even our strongest range of made hands on the flop, so It's hard to imagine villain ch/C the flop with 66.

This is not the type of board that players typically slowplay on, so flopped sets 44/55 and 3x (A3s) are very unlikely after he ch/C 2 streets. 67s and A2s flop a straight and could certainly slowplay 1 street, but when the turn brings a FD and pairs the board, even with Ah2h, he's got to be leading there (and when he doesn't, he should ALWAYS ch/R).

That leaves 22 (3 combos), 65s (3 combos), and many other Ax. Our turn bet is a bit small, and this player likes to peel a lot. He may even think he has 6 outs or more with Ax on the turn, even without a flush draw. The question then is how many Ax can he have? I think he is 3betting his strongest Ax (AJs+AQo+ nearly 100%), and should certainly not be calling with trashy unsuited aces. Lets say A4s-ATs and then a few large unsuited aces like AT and AJ. That's more than 40 combos of Ax...so even if we discount the small baby suited Aces, it's still clearly the largest proportion of his range.

All of these Ax hands, along with 22 and 65s are reasonable for this villain to get to the river with by ch/C, ch/C and then leading for value. Hero could certainly have Ax, but a good portion of our range that villain expects us o call a bet with is overpairs, so villain will always bet Ax or better on the river, and his bet sizing is appropriate for trying to get a call from a 1-pair hand.

Now let's look at the hands we beat: namely smaller pairs and missed draws. There aren't that many. 77/88 COULD play this flop passively if he had a strong read on our cbetting tendencies, but usually he is raising these on the flop, and if not, he shouldn't be value betting them on the river or turning them into bluffs due to the board texture and our strong perceived range.

As for missed draws, he is obviously floating a lot when we look at his VPIP vs his fold to cbet stat, but the only real "floats" in his flop range that continue after our 2 barrel are 7h8h and other overcard heart hands like QhJh that didn't 3bet pre and might call a 2nd small bet when he picks up a FD. Still, even if we give him 7h8h, 9h8h, Th9h, JhTh, QhJh, AND KhQh (which is very generous) that's only 6 combos of possible bluffs, and he would have to NOT ch/R bluff the turn AND expect us to fold overpairs often enough to offset the times we show up with Ax and 66 here, which is very unrealistic...so, like I said, it's not even close...this is a fold.

Great vid!

I think something else to consider on the QTo hand is that villain seems pretty passive and might not bluff a busted draw - with QT we beat a lot of his FDs, so that adds a bit more merit to checking and hoping he just gives up and checks back with something like 98cc.

Quiz
I think it is a fold. He seems to be 3betting alot, so I quess he do not have that many Ax hands in his range, but still some. He might been calling with 66, 77, 88, but I doubt he would be leading the river with any but the 66. His bet feels like a valuebet. I doubt he has many bluffs here, unless he picked up a fd on turn. I would say he most likely has a str8 or full house. He seems to be a player that do not fold to cbets or 2 barrels, but I would have to see his aggression stats and probably also see him do this as a bluff some times before beleiving we might be good here.

Time Link to 00:47:06

pretty sure this is a bluff??

Time Link to 00:33:31

tecmospuperbowl you dont wanna raise the rivr cuz you're overrepresenting your hand and can't call a shove. you can eaazily have a straight QT or 67dd or something weird like JJJ that you slowplay... enough strong hands that he's not ghonna feel fantastic about re'bluffing' over your river raise. yea it's cool you made two pair but you can just call becuz like you siad he can't call with like A4o anyways, he'll just muck so no value in a raise other than vs 98ss or the very rare 58ss, prob negligable the latter. better two pair may even cry call for that amount. turning you r hand into a bluff kinda sux bcuz he can have strong hands like sets/straights/good two pairs, why not and then you're just burning monies w/ a raise. seems like a clear call on the river, think Jk3a said the same, dunno why I wrote all that out. pff

pretty sure this is a bluff??

not to me

not to me

hero checkraises a dry king high board not representing anything, then barrels the ace a spot that hes probably bluffing alot and then villain shoves over the barrel? any value hand should be calling here and letting hero bet river because his range is air a large % of time. looks alot to me like a float trying to rebluff, if we think villain is capable of it this is the spot for it

edit: he didnt shove he just made a small raise.. god does that look like a bluff to me

hero checkraises a dry king high board not representing anything, then barrels the ace a spot that hes probably bluffing alot and then villain shoves over the barrel? any value hand should be calling here and letting hero bet river because his range is air a large % of time. looks alot to me like a float trying to rebluff, if we think villain is capable of it this is the spot for it

edit: he didnt shove he just made a small raise.. god does that look like a bluff to me

def understand your line of thinking and the theory is excellent. i just think in practice people raise hands like 2pr+ there that they shouldn't and rarely bluff

quiz:

i think its a fold
when villian 3b 14% he could raise every pocket and suited connecters also the stronger hands but somethimes he will call small Aces like A2s, A3s etc. also he could call hands like 56s.

when he cold calls the flop. C/C turn and then bumps they river on a 35432 its very polarized his range i think

he could have:

sets = fh, straights (Axs, 66,56,67), i dont think he turns 66/77/88/1010 in a bluff on the river. And i think 1010 are going to c/c the river again or make a small block bet. by the way 1010 he would also defently 3b

so we only beat smaller pockets, a missed draw like a fd on the turn or a missed str8draw with 78. but thats not too often so in my opinion its a clear fold

Quiz answer:

Preflop, a 36/26 has a wide range. I think he's flatting a lot of the suited aces if not all suited aces up to A9s.

Flop, the FCB of 20 stands out. Even if this is a small sample size, this probably isn't a board he's folding a lot of hands. He has some overpairs, a number of Ax and Ax suited combos, random overcards, straight draws, and the occasional set or a combo or two of a flopped straight.

Turn, I assume he's calling again with a wide range, but I don't think he'd call all his overcard combos.

On the river, his value range is something like 66, 65s, a number of combos of Ax, and maybe a combo or two of full houses/quads. We need to be good around 22% to call. Even if we remove some value combos (whether villain check/raises or not) and add a few combos of air, we're good around 15 - 20% of the time. Fold.