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Full Tilt Poker $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 786610
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+2: $68.70
MP1: $37.90
MP2: $209.85
CO: $20.15
BTN: $67.40
Hero (SB): $122.10
BB: $55.20
UTG: $35.90
UTG+1: $54.55

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with 2 2
5 folds, CO raises to $1.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $4, BB calls $3.50, 1 fold

Having some fun with rush poker and ran into this spot. PFR is short, but steals wide and folds a ton to 3bet (hence the small 3bet size). The BB seems pretty nitty so I feel a bit better about bluffing here, but when he tanks and flats, I figure him for TT-QQ/AK and maybe a trappy KK+.

Flop: ($9.50) 9 Q 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $5.00, BB calls $5

We hit a set and our cbet gets called. Given the dryish board texture and his PP/AK-heavy range I opt to cbet small (and on dry boards, this is a size I'll make with most of my range). His call isn't really surprising, but I'm pretty sure AK folds here most of the time.

Turn: ($19.50) J (2 players)
Hero bets $12.00, BB calls $12

Not really a great card for us, and I'm not entirely convinced we should be calling if he shoves here.

River: ($43.50) K (2 players)

Wonderful river, right? Thoughts as to the best line here? I'll discuss what I did and why, but would like some input.

Well, if his preflop range is TT-QQ, AK and the occasional KK/AA then river becomes a very easy c/f. He should never have AK once he gets to the river (and if he did, he might still fold TP on this board). And the rest of his range now has us beat except AA. AA is pretty unlikely though as most players will 4bet it pre or raise the flop or turn, so at best I'd give him half a combo of AA on the river.

Now if he can have something like AQ here, obviously your hand is good some of the time, but he isn't calling a bet and usually not turning it into a bluff, so it's still a c/f

edit: You'd actually b/f the turn here? And I thought I was a nit

Well, if his preflop range is TT-QQ, AK and the occasional KK/AA then river becomes a very easy c/f. He should never have AK once he gets to the river (and if he did, he might still fold TP on this board). And the rest of his range now has us beat except AA. AA is pretty unlikely though as most players will 4bet it pre or raise the flop or turn, so at best I'd give him half a combo of AA on the river.

Now if he can have something like AQ here, obviously your hand is good some of the time, but he isn't calling a bet and usually not turning it into a bluff, so it's still a c/f

edit: You'd actually b/f the turn here? And I thought I was a nit

lol I'm not 100% sure about the turn, tbh. We'll be getting a bit better than 2-1 on our call and if we assume his range for taking that line is JJ/QQ/AA and discounted KK...

6 combos of QQ/JJ total
6 combos of AA

Hmmmm...even without factoring in KK, I guess it's a pretty clear call
unless we think he'd either always call down or just raise the flop with AA. Pardon my nittiness lol

I think I ck/f.

If we now have our range narrowed to JJ+ and we put villian on a hand to calculate our G bucks. What do we have.

For the G bucks calculation I'd put him on QQ and say I'm crushed. For the reasons stated above I'd have ruled out KK or AA by now. Putting him on QQ leaves us crushed and as I understand for G bucks we put him on a specific hand then compute our range. So I put him on QQ.

Now our range includes 1010+. So with 6 ways for AA, and 1010 3 for ,KK,JJ we have 12/18 that win. I left the QQ out cause I think villian has them. So it is a close ck/c.

You state the BB is "pretty Nitty". Add that to the closeness of the call and I would ck/f here.

Off course I'm really new to this G bucks calculation and may be all wrong. I just want to put my opinion on the line here and learn from this post/thread!

Harley

You didn't give stats for BB but why do you think he is pretty Nitty?

Also, not sure how much Rush experience you have but IMO KK+ is much more likely in this spot than in non-Rush. In Rush, there seems to be a lot more slowplay trapping with AA,KK and even QQ. It is not uncommon to raise with, say QQ from HJ and bet all three streets on a lowish board and get shown KK.

In your hand, Villain has not raised at any point making slowplayed KK,AA more likely.

I'm not suggesting that is Villain's entire range. I am suggesting that all commenters seem to lack 50NL Rush experience and are underestimating likelihood of AA,KK in this spot IMO.

Play at Rush is different both pre and post-flop. There is so much light 3B'ing that many Villains flat your spot with QQ+.