Yeah when we cap and the board pairs up on the turn, we check and the UTG bets - which I think he will with whatever he is strong enough to 3bet the flop with.
So play would be SB check Hero check and the UTG bets, then question is how likely the SB is to call 1BB right now - assuming he is pretty bad from what his play has been so far I think he won't consider the fact that our HERO will raise. So calculation without including the EQ or EV of HERO's play (which is damn hard here with the SB in the hand - UTG is standard got a very TP+ heavy range here after the flop action)
As played, there goes a total of 6BB's in on the turn.
With alternative line: (UTG bet's 100%*1BB)+(SB calls x%*1BB)+(HERO raise 100%*2BB)+[(UTG raise z%*2BB)+(UTG call 100-z%*1BB)]+[(SB calls calls c%*2BB)+(SB calls v%*1BB)] = Estimated PS
So question is how big the following variables will be: SB's x : UTG z : SB c : SB v.
Realistically I think that both z,c are very small and mostly unlikely vs. ranges that we still beat. So the only question left is how big the x and the v are, take a look and see the development on and impact of different variable's. OBV there could be a ton of those, so if anybody would like the spredsheet I'll be fine posting it.
Bet or XR in 3w pot on the turn
Remember that there is no EQ or EV calculated into this, and the only concern is what play makes the biggest potsize.
BTW, beer anywhere good? come to DK - nah seriously I haven't been anywhere with disaster beers, I had to search a little but always found some.