Secret HQ Poker Forums

Yeah when we cap and the board pairs up on the turn, we check and the UTG bets - which I think he will with whatever he is strong enough to 3bet the flop with.

So play would be SB check Hero check and the UTG bets, then question is how likely the SB is to call 1BB right now - assuming he is pretty bad from what his play has been so far I think he won't consider the fact that our HERO will raise. So calculation without including the EQ or EV of HERO's play (which is damn hard here with the SB in the hand - UTG is standard got a very TP+ heavy range here after the flop action)

As played, there goes a total of 6BB's in on the turn.

With alternative line: (UTG bet's 100%*1BB)+(SB calls x%*1BB)+(HERO raise 100%*2BB)+[(UTG raise z%*2BB)+(UTG call 100-z%*1BB)]+[(SB calls calls c%*2BB)+(SB calls v%*1BB)] = Estimated PS

So question is how big the following variables will be: SB's x : UTG z : SB c : SB v.

Realistically I think that both z,c are very small and mostly unlikely vs. ranges that we still beat. So the only question left is how big the x and the v are, take a look and see the development on and impact of different variable's. OBV there could be a ton of those, so if anybody would like the spredsheet I'll be fine posting it.

Bet or XR in 3w pot on the turn

Remember that there is no EQ or EV calculated into this, and the only concern is what play makes the biggest potsize.

BTW, beer anywhere good? come to DK - nah seriously I haven't been anywhere with disaster beers, I had to search a little but always found some.

sorry, DK? Where are you guys from again? I heard the Welsh reference.

Honestly, this is heavier algebra than I usually go into (I'd need to revive that area of my brain... it's in there), but how do you quantify if UTG will 3-bet our c/r? I feel his 'raise our bet' range will be different than his 'raise our donkc/r' range. I'd be really scared if AR c/r, expecting her to be full a lot. But, this guy probably isn't thinking that hard.

What is everyone's favorite HUD?

I use HEM, and DK stands for Denmark

I use HEM, and certainly will now that the PLO module's in full beta since I like to dabble in 4-card madness occasionally.

What is everyone's favorite HUD?

HEM..

but how do you quantify if UTG will 3-bet our c/r? I feel his 'raise our bet' range will be different than his 'raise our donkc/r' range. I'd be really scared if AR c/r, expecting her to be full a lot. But, this guy probably isn't thinking that hard.

That exactly is the very hard part of this. But lets say he will 3bet our XR with Kx, TT, 99, QJ, If we say he is just a little loose preflop he opens K9+ and QJ so : we get 6*(K9+KT+KJ+KQ) + 8*AK that's 32 combinations
TT+99 are 6 combos, QJ is 9 combos and KK is 1 = totally 48 combinations.
We beat KJ,KQ,AK = 20 combos, and chops with the 9 combos of QJ - but he would still 3bet us.

So we loose to, and are dead to(K9,KT,99,TT,KK) 19 out of 48 = 39,58%
We beat (at the turn) (KJ,KQ,AK) 20 out of 48 = 41,67%
And we chop with 9 of 48 = 18,75%

But our EQ is only:

Board: Tc Ks 9h Kd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.300% 31.08% 10.22% 135072 44418.50 { QcJd }
Hand 1: 58.700% 48.48% 10.22% 210691 44419.00 { KK, TT-99, AKs, K9s+, QJs, AKo, K9o+, QJo }

But this is only for the range that he would 3bet us with, therefore we need to figure what he is betting and how we does vs that.
A roughly estimate vs the UTG turn betting range is (remember he'll bet his whole flop 3bet range on the turn when checked to) :

Board: Tc Ks 9h Kd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.847% 46.95% 07.90% 931571 156665.00 { QcJd }
Hand 1: 45.153% 37.26% 07.90% 739229 156665.50 { 99+, AKs, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AKo, K9o+, QJo }

So without the SB putting his dead money in the hand, we ain't in that good shape (QTs+,JTs is to but some semi trash hands in) the range is obviously questionable.

SUMSUMSUM

I kind of changed my mind now looking at his whole range here and our equity vs it. We ain't in that good shape vs his flop 3bet when the board pairs up (unless he's really loose - which I doubt with the position Jess has on him) and I really thinks it's like a WA/WB where we should hope to keep the SB in the hand and then jam, but if the SB folds we should take the WA/WB line and donk/raise any non 9+ river card.

Interesting ?

What is everyone's favorite HUD?

HEM - HEM - HEM But I actually liked PokerOffice much more than PT2 back in the SnG-MTT days - why doesn't HEM have those nice graph functions.

What is everyone's favorite HUD?

PT3 HUD ftw, HEM HUD is rather ugly and not as crisp/sharp

Style > Substance obv ^.^

What is everyone's favorite HUD?

Brown bear is best.

Isac, good stuff.

... but if the SB folds we should take the WA/WB line ...

Well, we really aren't WA/WB. Any Kx has 10 outs. Regardless, I understand your point.

I think we need to discount K9/KT and possibly add in a couple of combos of T9, but these are kinda moot.

I agree that our equity is looking worse than I thought, especially since his trailing range after he raises the Turn should have 10 outs. We can never fold if he caps turn or raises the river, so we need to have 66% equity to raise again on a big street. It doesn't appear we have that.

With this in mind, I'm actually liking the idea of c/r the Turn to try and keep SB in. If SB folds, I think we still c/r but simply call a 3-bet and plan to call down. If UTG 3-bets the turn, I would expect him to be full a lot (or have QJ as well). With all of the above in mind, I certainly don't think we can cap/lead the river or donk/3bet the river.

I'm liking donkc/r the turn and call down to more action after Isac's calcs. In game speed, if we just bet out on the Turn, as played, I don't think we can 3-bet profitably with the above in mind. I may just call and donk/call a river <9, which I think is a great point. I certainly don't think we should 3bet though.

This isn't the first time I've considered waiting for the river to put in more action with a straight. Similar situations can arise on FD flops/boards where we have serious concerns about a rivered flush, waiting to put in more action. Seems as though it's very justified considering we can never fold.

gg

Jess???? Help, we're confused people

I know

Isac, good stuff.

Well, we really aren't WA/WB. Any Kx has 10 outs. Regardless, I understand your point.

TY

No exactly not WA/WB but like a WA/WB spot. We love the SB's dead money but doesn't love our hand all that much.

TY for your super passiveness OR should I say WHAT THE FUCK YOU SAVED YOURSELF SOME BB'S HERE.

To be honest I had no clue on their ranges - thought 1 had A high and the other like 99-QQ, omg

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
Limit Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
Hero ($114)
BB ($30.75)
UTG ($55)
UTG+1 ($115)
CO ($26.75)
BTN ($24)

Dealt to Hero KT

UTG calls $1, fold, CO calls $1, fold, Hero calls $0.50, check,

FLOP ($4) 8K8

Hero bets $1, BB folds, UTG calls $1, CO calls $1,

TURN ($7) 8K84

Hero bets $2, UTG calls $2, CO calls $2,

RIVER ($13) 8K84K

Hero bets $2, UTG calls $2, CO calls $2,

Hero shows KT
(Flop 12.0%, Turn 4.8%)

UTG shows AA
(Flop 9.0%, Turn 4.8%)

CO shows J8
(Flop 79.1%, Turn 90.5%)

Hero wins $18.25

l... o... l... open limp AA, overlimp J8o... entire postflop.

good times. Man, people suck on paired boards.

after thinking about it for a second, I may seriously consider checking the turn. Few reasons in my head. Thoughts?

villain is 67/0/AF27% over 50 hands or so. he had really done nothing but call so when he donked on the turn i got lost. raise turn for any reason? also, what about river? 8 makes str8 come in with any 7 he has also.

Poker Stars $1/$2 Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 90039
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is UTG with A Q
Hero raises, 3 folds, BB calls

Flop: (4.5 SB) 5 6 Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls

Turn: (3.25 BB) 9 (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls

River: (5.25 BB) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ???

Super weird action. We never ever chever raise the turn, imo. After he checks the river, I'd guess some kind of combo draw with pair+1 and b/f. If he raises river = nuts 1000% of the time.

He's not doing this with 7x, so I throw that out.

My guess is A9o.

just me.