I understand what you are saying here about his check-bluff and value check-raise frequency, but you don't reach a showdown on the flop. How often do we just fold to a bet on the turn when he's check-bluffed the flop, or are you assuming that our opponent pretty much always checks the turnafter bluffing the flop?
without reads I assume that people don't bluff turn often enough to fold flop or call turn
