inavacuum
1147 posts
Joined 04/2008
What would you do if the river was a:
1. T,J,Q
2. 3-7
If we put him on small pair, I would be inclined to barrel a TJQ, but check/fold 3-7.
I don't think this villain is planning on folding to any river card very often at all. I will respond to your other question when I have more itme.
Posted almost 3 years ago
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Acombfosho
3147 posts
Joined 06/2008
inavacuum
1147 posts
Joined 04/2008
Based on your reads, what would you do if villain:
1. Minraised
2. Shipped it
Thanks. Excellent series.
I don't have the reads, but if villain is a reg I'm shoving either way. If I know villain is a passive fish it's always a call vs the minraise and probably a fold vs a shove.
Posted almost 3 years ago
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Matress
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Mikk
3 posts
Joined 09/2008
Time Link to 00:48:33
Isn't check shoving the best option? I think that if we check he will probably shove almost always his range that didn't hit (AT+,KJ+,... and a lot of other stuff since he called a 4bet with J4s) whereas if we bet the flop maybe he will fold the majority (maybe not the majority but it's always worse than the first scenario) of the time that portion of range we crush.
Posted almost 3 years ago
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inavacuum
1147 posts
Joined 04/2008
Isn't check shoving the best option? I think that if we check he will probably shove almost always his range that didn't hit (AT+,KJ+,... and a lot of other stuff since he called a 4bet with J4s) whereas if we bet the flop maybe he will fold the majority (maybe not the majority but it's always worse than the first scenario) of the time that portion of range we crush.
This is a common misconception. It can be difficult to get behind why betting is best because of exactly the reasons you stated, however if we are going to be checking we need SOLID GOLD reads on how often villain bets the flop with missed overs+ and if he will do so again in the current situation. Mostly we do not have those. We do not have them in that spot. In which case betting is going to best because we WANT villain to fold those hands that are getting close to 30% vs us. We're attacking his equity share.
Posted almost 3 years ago
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Mikk
3 posts
Joined 09/2008
thanks for the quick answer and sorry for my possibly not good english.
2 points:
1°: I think we want him to get in with that range of overs with 30% of equity since if he folds we get +50$ whereas if get in our EV will be 140$ (200$pot *0,7), so +65$. correct me if i'm wrong
2°: If villain is totally unknow what percentages do you think he checks and shoves with that range?. I usually assume thant most of the time (think more than 2/3 of the time) he is going to shove since the pot is so big and the stack behind is 1,5x the pot.
BTW great videos.
Posted almost 3 years ago
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inavacuum
1147 posts
Joined 04/2008
We do want to get in vs the 30% equity, the problem is he can realise a good portion of this equity when we give him the option to check back. We don't want to give him this option if he is actually going to take it some of the time. When villain is relatively unknown and has called the 4bet we're either doing very well or very bad on the flop in question - checking gives him the chance to realise his equity, unless of course we know he will always bet. I do not think most people just shove when checked to here, especially when they hold something like AQ. It would be difficult and probably impossible for me to come up with a %. I would be surprised if it were more than 49%. People are far more likely to bet a range of bluffs when the SPR is not so close.
Posted almost 3 years ago
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