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I've got villain at 14/12 over 200ish hands...he probably has me running a bit looser than that. Neither one of us have been terribly active so far.


Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 728776
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (MP1): $50.00
MP2: $48.95
CO: $50.00
BTN: $60.45
SB: $63.25
BB: $50.25
UTG: $49.00
UTG+1: $51.55
UTG+2: $51.75

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with 2 2
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $2, Hero calls $2, 5 folds

I'm 50/50 on calling/folding here, but there weren't any big squeezers behind and given that he's opening EP, I don't expect too much light squeezing. Also, the CO is a 30/15 who's been a bit wacky postflop so I feel my implied go up.

Flop: ($4.75) 2 9 A (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $3.50, UTG+2 calls $3.50

Villain c/c's flop (I have him at 67% over this small sample), and I figure him for TT-KK/KQ/AQ/K(?) and of course, AA/99 being trappy (though I discount this possibility)

Turn: ($11.75) Q (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $9.00, UTG+2 raises to $18, Hero...

We're looking at a range now of(imo)KQ/AQ/K/QQ/AA/99 and maybe a turned gutter/fd (seems unlikely though). I know we have a set, but how often does villain show AQ here or hearts? In my head, it's a fold or shove (I see no benefit in calling, tbh since I think most of his draws will call the turn shove anyways). Thoughts?

Flop: ($4.75) 2 9 A (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $3.50, UTG+2 calls $3.50

Villain c/c's flop (I have him at 67% over this small sample), and I figure him for TT-KK/KQ/AQ/K(?) and of course, AA/99 being trappy (though I discount this possibility)

Turn: ($11.75) Q (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $9.00, UTG+2 raises to $18, Hero...

We're looking at a range now of(imo)KQ/AQ/K/QQ/AA/99 and maybe a turned gutter/fd (seems unlikely though). I know we have a set, but how often does villain show AQ here or hearts? In my head, it's a fold or shove (I see no benefit in calling, tbh since I think most of his draws will call the turn shove anyways). Thoughts?

I fold (a disciplined fold). It's NL50 and he's not raising the Turn with anything you beat here.

Flop: If he CBet's 67% surely he CBet's AQ with TP, FD's here leaving his range for check/calling TT-KK and maybe slowplaying AA that fears he has you crushed. I don't think many NL50 players check AQ here.

Turn: Check/Raise here means transparent QQ at NL50. AQ bets Flop and bets Turn. FD's bet flop and bet Turn.

Maybe your ranges might be more correct at NL100+ (I wouldn't know) but I don't see almost anyone playing like this at NL50 unless it is precisely QQ. Most people are pretty straightforward.

At NL50 I've valuetowned myself in this spot more than a few times only to be oversetted every time. I don't want to believe it when I'm putting Villain on precisely one hand but my BR thanks me when I believe the obvious.

Preflop is pretty much always a call at 50nl unless there are some crazy aggro guys behind.

Flop / turn bet size is good. AA/QQ makes a heap of sense to me but in the moment, I am probably sticking all the money in.

What is his cb %? Would help in determining if he typically always cbets this flop w/ 99, AA etc.

What is his cb %? Would help in determining if he typically always cbets this flop w/ 99, AA etc.

67% over 200ish hands

It's a fold. His range is pretty much always a set here, imo, and most likely QQ specifically. As Quad mentioned, he won't show up here with AQ very often(especially given the two actions of checking the flop and raising the turn), and a FD almost never.

Having said all that, I think we just check the turn because I'm pretty confident that he nearly always has something like KK-TT. His range that you crush is only calling one more street anyways, so you likely get better value on the river. (It's a great spot to triple barrel though). In addition, you should bet larger on the flop because he is almost always on a c/c line(without a read) when he checks this flop. If you had some sort of read that this guy doesn't c-bet TP all the time, or anything at all about his range being out of the ordinary, then I like betting the turn also.

BTW, if he auto-folds when he checks the flop, then you should check back the flop.

Does he always open 4xbb?

This looks like AA/99 to me, opens 4x with the fish in CO. Then check, call, check, min raise turn.

Tough to get away from but fold imo.