Hey Wilt, I love the series and am working on applying the info to my game. This is my first time posting on this so my lingo might be a little off. I have one question about multi street fold equities in deep NL holdem that I don't think you cover in the series. How would I set up the equation if we are so deep that I want to raise with my draw, but because of stack size I think I can't shove and he could 3 bet shove on me that I think I would have roughly break even expectation. Here is an example of pot from today.
I am playing 250bb 5/10 NL game.
I am on the button with 10c7c and middle position opens to 30 and I call on the button and the two blinds call.
Flop Ts 8c 4c. It gets checked around to me and I make it 80. Folds to the PFR who check raises to 215. I think Villain could do this with over pairs, AT KT, and sets, and T8 (maybe 79 but I doubt it against this player) With a backdoor flush and strait with weak top pair I decide to make the call.
Turn comes a 6c giving me a flush draw and an inside strait draw. Villain makes it 300......
OK so here is my question, when he makes it 300 he has about 1800 behind him I think I have a profitable situation to make a move. The 6 completes strait draws and two pair hands, or i could be slow rolling a set. My question is when we did the calculation with the As9s shove hand it was an easy situation because it was a shove. If I make it say 700 here, then I am risking 700 to win about 800, BUT with the top of his range he could ship it, and with the middle of his range he would probably call or fold, and then probably fold to a shove on the river. So if he shoved I would be calling 1400 to win 3300 so slightly negative ev.
My question is how does this change the way I should be setting up the equities. I intuitively see that this could be a very +EV move trying to run a multi street double barrel (especially because I think such a small part of his range could shove and would fold to a river bet), but I don't know exactly how the math applies in a situation in which my raise could be shoved on.
If you understand what I am trying to get at then it would be great to get your insight. Thanks a bunch.
O yea i thought about this after, i just called and then the river blanked and it went check check and showed A T.