Time Link to 00:27:56
@INAVACUUM:
I can't see how a CR on turn would be "absolutelly ridic."
- When you mention "he will bet when we check, b/c he's a pathological floater "
In my point of view the collection of dead money outweighs the situation when we get it in behind. (still with reasonable equity though).
+ What are You planning to do when the RVR bricks off?
There's 15$ in the pot with 43,7$5 effective. Let's presume, he bets the same ammount: 11$ (which is reasonable IMO)
= 26$ in the pot
If we jam and he folds, we win 26$ right there. With the guy being a /pathological floater/ this should happen well over 50% of the time/ let's put in 50% - for the simplicity sake..
If we jam and he calls, we are almost always behind and likely up against:
Board: 9
8
K
9
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.909% 25.78% 00.13% 397 2.00 { QhTh }
Hand 1: 74.091% 73.96% 00.13% 1139 2.00 { 8c8d, 8c8h, 8c8s, KTs+, JcTc, Td9d, Ts9s, 9d8d, 9s8s, KTo+ }
(half the sets would raise the flop etc.)
We need 42,8% equity to get 43,75$ to be equal on the ship.
We get 25,9% equity which represents 26,5$
= we lose 43,75-26,5 = 17,25$ (50% of the time)
If my estimates are correct, we win 26$ and lose 17,25$ every time, we c/r the turn.
EDIT: formating
EDIT2: Very cool video format. Thanks!

T